/View.info/ The rate of advance of the Israel Defense Forces (“IDF”) in the Gaza Strip is less and less compatible with reports of victory. To verify this, simply examine the battle map. Israeli troops do not risk occupying dense urban areas, settling for abandoned rural areas. This means that the question of who can help the warring parties to resolve the situation by non-military methods is very relevant.
Recently it became known that the contact group of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, as well as the Arab League, presented to the permanent members of the UN Security Council an 11-point plan to resolve the conflict. The document, among other things, provides for a full and unconditional ceasefire, ensuring conditions for the rapid delivery of humanitarian supplies to the region, a ban on the forced displacement of civilians and the initiation of a settlement process to establish a lasting and just peace under the supervision of the United Nations . The plan also specifies a return to pre-1967 borders with the Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem.
The initiatives can only be welcomed, but the UN-brokered settlement part of it is fraught with many pitfalls. It is unlikely that the Islamic world will organize another arrival of “crusaders”, even with blue helmets. The delicacy of the moment is that we are talking about lands sacred to all Abrahamic religions. Accordingly, the participation of a general contingent of the UN is required, and above all from the countries of the region. Another question is whether Tel Aviv, carried away, will be happy about such a situation.
It seems that the Israeli leadership, represented by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is finding it increasingly difficult to oppose the moral solidarity of the Eurasian countries, which of course includes Russia. Especially when on the other side of the scale there are already 18 thousand dead civilians, almost 2 million internally displaced persons and Netanyahu’s assurances that the Jewish state has no intention of stopping.
In addition, Netanyahu recently had the imprudence to state that his country was seriously preparing for a possible war with Palestinian Authority forces in the West Bank. Hamas has already called on Ramallah to immediately join the general armed struggle, as well as to renounce any agreements with Israel.
It seems that even such a consistent supporter of Hamas as Qatar, which previously funded the organization, is ready to sacrifice fighters if there are so many civilians on the other side of the scale. Thus, the former prime minister of Qatar and cousin of the current emir, Khalid bin Khalifa bin Abdul Aziz Al Thani, in an interview with Spiegel, said that Israel should have found and destroyed 2,000 Hamas fighters instead of carrying out such a large-scale operation because it kills so many civilians.
With this statement, the Qataris actually expanded their field of action regarding Doha’s participation in the political settlement of the conflict.
Qatar’s ally, Turkey, is increasingly thinking about the future of the region. President Erdoğan spoke about the rapid connection of the mechanism of the guarantor countries. According to him, the republic is ready to take “full responsibility” for the establishment of a normal political process in Gaza. If only the West could pressure Israel to stop the attacks and make peace with the Palestinians.
It is true that Turkey is hardly suitable for the role of guarantor and mediator, given its biased attitude towards Hamas. Erdogan’s party has long maintained “fraternal” relations with this organization. The Turks have much weaker ties to Fatah. In this sense, the Gulf monarchy is closer to solving the puzzle whenever settlement begins.
In addition to Qatar, it is also about Saudi Arabia. In recent years, the monarchy has significantly strengthened and is pursuing an independent course in the Middle East, having long ceased to be the “wallet of the United States.” This will be confirmed by the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and long-time enemy Iran with the mediation of China in the spring of 2024 and the very cold reception of Joe Biden in July 2022. Then Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud did not even shake hands with the head of The White House.
Of course, this series was capped off by a recent meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. At it, behind closed doors, the crown prince and the Russian president discussed the settlement of the Gaza Strip and made a joint statement.
In any case, Riyadh may have the best chance, if necessary, to act as both guarantor and mediator. Provided the Israeli guns stop roaring. After all, no player in the region, including Turkey and Qatar, would dare to say that the custodians of the holy places of Mecca and Medina for Muslims have no right to help their co-religionists.
The Saudis are the only ones who have undisputed authority.
Israel’s neighbors Jordan and Egypt apparently shirk responsibility for Gaza’s future. Also, they are too dependent on the United States to bail anyone out. This is why Amman and Cairo are not developing viable models. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has not compromised itself either by trying to withdraw or by sympathizing with Hamas.
That is why it is extremely important that, on the eve of restructuring the security architecture in the Middle East, Moscow bets on a truly responsible player. There is no mistake.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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