The theme of today’s report is “The Angry God Fasten Your Seat Belt, High Yield, Relatively Safe Shipping”.
Wanbao Investment Advisor Cai Mingzhang emphasized that Taiwanese stocks refer to U.S. stocks.Dow Jones Index、Nasdaq、half feeTrend, under the current belief in AI, only focus on four US AI stocks, Huida, AMD, Super Micro, and TSMC ADR. As long as the four stocks continue to hit record highs, Taiwan stock investors will continue to rush forward, and the market will also rewrite history. New highs, but bull traps also appear.
previous referenceDow Jones IndexThere are finance and inheritance,NasdaqThere are a wide range of technology and biotechnology stocks. If Taiwan stocks follow up, the stock prices of non-electronics groups and various technology industries will rotate. However, recently, belief in AI has only boosted TSMC (2330-TW), other stocks that have nothing to do with the fourth level of AI in the US stock market cannot rise.
Many stocks earn the index and lose the price difference. Only a few stocks of AI Belief open champagne to celebrate. The current weekly and monthly K value of the market is 90% seriously overbought. Some investors are impatient to hold the stocks to earn the index and lose the price difference. Adjust Selling and stock exchange operations caused large fluctuations in market trends.
On March 8, Taiwan stocks hit 20,000 points, but it was not a celebration, but a thrilling one, with 80% of listed OTC stocks closing in the black. At 20,000 points, the Taiwan stock market became furious. Participants fastened their seat belts and prepared vomit bags. 20,000 points is a major milestone in the history of the Taiwan stock market. How to get angry can refer to the 10,000 points more than 30 years ago.
Wanbao Investment Consultant Cai Mingzhang emphasized that in 1989, the Taiwan stock market reached 10,000 points for the first time, setting a record high.weighted indexThe breakthrough relied on mainstream financial stocks at the time, but the market was speculating on asset stocks and small and medium-sized stocks.New Taiwan DollarIn the era of big appreciation, the introduction of hot money, and crazy speculation in real estate, the biggest belief in the Taiwan stock market is that there is wealth and wealth.
For the first time, it reached 10,000 points. Major major players adjusted their shipments. The Taiwan stock market fluctuated violently and corrected. Asset stocks and speculative stocks that had risen sharply fell. However, the capital market was not over. Within half a year, the Taiwan stock market successfully stood at 10,000 points in early 1990. points, and hit a new sky-high price of 12,682 points. The market is still driven by financial stocks, but all small and medium-sized stocks have been replaced, so 20,000 points is not the ceiling. This time, after the correction, the background of Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (2330-TW), MediaTek (2454-TW) and financial holdings value stock Fubon Financial (2881-TW), Cathay Gold (2882-TW), CITIC Financial (2891-TW) will still lift the market and hit a new all-time high, but the small and medium-sized stocks that have been hyped in the market are in full rotation. Don’t believe that there will be sequels to the soaring stocks. You must get off the train decisively after a big rise.
Wanbao Investment Consultant Cai Mingzhang emphasized that AI belief has made the stock market crazy, and there are unpredictable risks in itself. There are three major operations on how to reduce risks.
First, picking stocks with high profit margins is definitely a safeguard against the wrathful god. Take semiconductors, which have surged 23% this year and are leading all types of stocks, as an example. MediaTek has a profit rate of 4.5%, Novatek (3034-TW)5%, Silicon Innovation (8016-TW) has a dividend of 12 yuan and a yield of 4.2%. Once the stock price falls back, the yield will be higher, which will attract an influx of buyers. UMC with mature manufacturing process (2303-TW) The fundamentals are mediocre, but with a dividend of 3 yuan and a yield rate of 6%, it is relatively resilient.
The second protective tool against the raging god of Taiwan stocks, in and out of profit-compensating stocks, Quanta’s AI server (2382-TW), Wistron (3231-TW), the performance this year is far inferior to that of the cooling Shuanghong (3324-TW), Qi Hong (3017-TW), but the February revenue growth of Quanta and Wistron was better than expected, but the February revenue of Shuanghong and Qihong did not double, and Shuanghong even decreased, with a monthly decrease of 42% and an annual decrease of 26%. I am afraid that market funds will sell off the excess heat and transfer to the AI server to make up for the increase.
However, beware of the US AI server demon stock Supermicro’s inclusion in the S&P 500 on March 18. Will all the benefits be exhausted? Judging from the past trends of inclusion in the S&P 500, the stock price has risen sharply in advance, but it has officially become For stocks, there is a wave of selling pressure that exhausts all profits.
The belief in AI is not without loopholes. Netcom chip manufacturers Broadcom and Marvell announced their financial reports on March 8, and their stock prices plummeted, dragging down Huida and experiencing the largest decline of this wave. At the same time, they experienced huge and high-end explosions, which are not good for short-term stock prices. Good thing. Broadcom’s last quarter financial report was better than expected, but it did not raise its full-year revenue target. Marvell’s revenue forecast for this quarter was lower than market expectations, indicating that AI demand has not yet fully spread to the Netcom field.
Taiwan stocks Netcom and Optical Communications, this wave appeals to the AI theme, new revival (4909-TW), Guangsheng (6442-TW), Shangquan (3363-TW) etc. If the increase is ahead of schedule, it may be over-reflected.
Wanbao Investment Consultant Cai Mingzhang emphasized that Taiwan’s stock market has surged 1,800 points this year, and TSMC actually contributed 1,600 points, which is extremely abnormal. The third magic weapon to deal with the wrath of the Taiwan stock market is to transfer funds into stocks that are negatively correlated with TSMC. TSMC is the US stock market that drove the Arizona factory and received US$5 billion in US chip bill subsidies, lower than the expected US$10 billion.
China’s economy and stock market are negatively correlated with the United States. China’s exports in the first two months of this year were US$528 billion, an annual increase of 7.1%, higher than the expected 1.9%, and better than the 2.3% in December last year. China’s export growth is different from Taiwan’s benefit from AI, but reflects improved global demand, which was first reflected in shipping stocks.
Container Sanxiong Evergreen (2603-TW), Yang Ming (2609-TW), Wan Hai (2615-TW) in the first half of 2021, when prices rose the most and hit sky-high prices, TSMC, the sacred mountain that protects the country, corrected by more than 20% between 679 and 518 yuan, proving that the trends of shipping and TSMC run counter to each other.
In the first two months of this year, the annual revenue growth rate was 30% for Evergreen and 18% for Yangming. Evergreen is expected to pay a dividend of 7 to 8 yuan, a high-yield theme, and the stock price has reached a new high in a year and a half. Yang Ming’s Q4 EPS loss last year was 0.37 yuan, and the full-year EPS loss was 1.37 yuan. It is expected to turn a loss into a profit in Q1 this year. The price difference between Yangming and Evergreen is too large, and the short-term compensatory growth is increasing.
Wanbao Investment Consultant Cai Mingzhang emphasized that bulk freight rates have performed better. BDI and BCI have turned upward this year, which is reflected in Zhengde (2641-TW) had the largest annual revenue growth of 62% in the first two months, followed by Yumin (2606-TW) increased 47% year-on-year, Huiyang-KY(2637-TW) increased by 31% year-on-year. The rest, emerging (2605-TW),CNAC (2612-TW), Taiwan Airlines (2617-TW) annual growth rate of around 10%.
Taking the leader Yumin as an example, its monthly revenue has been in negative growth for a year, and has been growing for three consecutive months since December last year. Affected by environmental regulations and the global bulk ship shortage effect this year, revenue is expected to continue to grow, and the stock price But there has been no movement. Perhaps the market is waiting for the opportunity for market funds to withdraw from the rising electronic stocks and transfer in.
Source of article: Wanbao Investment Consultant Cai Mingzhang
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2024-03-11 10:30:47
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