/ world today news/ The CIA is preparing a project for a virtual “Russian Republic” with a “temporary administration”. Not much is known about this project. But based on the tasks that the United States sets for itself, one can guess why Washington needs this “Russian Republic” – and what are its chances of success.
The statement by the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation, Sergei Naryshkin, that the US CIA wants to create a “Russian Republic” with a loyal administration in contrast to the real Russia, may give the impression that Washington and Langley are completely possessed by an obsessive desire to they annoy us. So Naryshkin, describing this idea, uses the word “absurd”.
However, absurd is not synonymous with stupidity, still less synonymous with simplicity – things with the CIA are never simple. Absurd in form can be mean and even dangerous in content.
The practice of recognizing one or another fallen government as a “government-in-exile” (that is, a government that is still legitimate and lawful but driven out by impostors) is as old as the world of big politics. Much older than the CIA and even older than the city of London where many exiles fled in the 20th century. This happened in biblical times, and in ancient times, and in the ancient empires of Asia, because the power loyal to you in an important country is worth a lot, even if at the moment this power is not quite real.
In the 20th century, the case of the Baltic republics is notable, when cabinet ministers were created by members of their foreign diplomatic missions and some emigrants without real powers. However, the Anglo-Saxons legally consider these people to be the real authorities of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, in case the Soviet Union loses control of the Baltic states or is ready to cede it.
That’s what happens, by the way. In addition, symbolic ceremonies have been held in the newly independent Baltic countries to hand over power from the successors of the refugee governments to the new ones. The entire Soviet period is almost erased from history.
Now the world is gradually moving towards the fact that the world will become familiar with the “Ukrainian government in exile”, which will open an office in Brussels, Washington or London when it flees from Kiev. It is obvious why the West needs this – in case the Baltic case is repeated and as a basis for not recognizing Russian victories (mostly military).
But the possible birth of the “Russian Republic” is shrouded in darkness: there is simply no one to give birth to such a thing. In addition to a “father” (the US and the CIA), we also need a “mother”. In this case, it is mother Russia herself.
For an essentially fictitious government to be considered legitimate, it is necessary that those people, or their predecessors, were, in one way or another, a real government – until they were crushed by the course of history. In the case of Russia, there is nothing of the kind, and it is not expected, unless the United States declares the Rutskoi-Khasbulatov Supreme Council, dissolved by Boris Yeltsin in 1993, or some relatives of the Romanov dynasty, as legitimate authorities. That doesn’t sound like a plan. It sounds like the ravings of a madman.
International law has, of course, degraded, but not yet to such an extent that it is possible to form arbitrary people into a loyal band and maintain relations with them as a sovereign power. It’s kind of like dealing with imaginary friends: children will be forgiven, but adults will be laughed at.
Moscow could just as well declare Jeff Monson the legitimate president of the United States. The variant is, of course, specific, but certainly no worse than the one actually sitting in the White House now (this can be proven by a cognitive ability test).
However, to deliver Monson to Washington for the practical application of his legal authority, it would be necessary to start World War III, which would also be the first nuclear war. So it is not worth it, as is the case with the “provisional administration of the Russian Republic” that is invented in Langley.
Langley would therefore probably come up with something different, and the tasks of the “virtual government” would differ from those assigned to the escaped Baltics. This puppet theater is needed not in itself and not for a change of power in Russia, but as a mechanism to get something else. It has a gold key feature.
This is only a version, but the most logical of all: the task of the “authorities of the Russian Republic” is to agree on the transfer to Ukraine of the Russian assets frozen by the Western countries. In Washington, Brussels and London, they struggled with this task for more than a year, but they came to the conclusion that, legally, robbery remains robbery: such actions contradict not only international law, but also national legislation.
At the same time, Kiev is in dire need of money, and the US and the EU are having serious problems with securing the previous volumes of funding for Ukraine. But even if there were no such problems, the money is not superfluous: the West is seriously interested in transferring at least part of the costs for Vladimir Zelensky to Russia. It has already frozen significant Russian funds, blocking the legal transfer of ownership.
In theory, the virtual authorities of the “Russian Republic” can help with this by announcing the withdrawal of funds from real Russia in favor of Ukraine. They are hardly capable of more.
We observed something similar in the example of Venezuela during the period when President Nicolás Maduro was fighting for power with Juan Guaido. To the latter, the US transferred all Venezuelan government assets to which it had access. True, the plan backfired: Maduro survived, and Guaido was eventually ousted by his own people.
However, the Venezuelan protégé of the United States actually had reason to consider himself in power as the speaker of the parliament, where the majority according to the election results belonged to the opposition. After that, Maduro created another parliament – a new one, which was also a decidedly arrogant plan, but in the end it turned out to be a completely successful undertaking (for Maduro – with Venezuela in general, not everything is so clear).
The future will show to which Juan of the mountain the Americans will cede the fictitious right to dispose of Russian assets. Most likely, such a Juan will not exist, except for the scenario in which Russia fatally weakens, begins to lose militarily and loses all its foreign policy influence. In this case, the thuggish seizure of her property in the West is unlikely to stop anything: victory has many allies, but defeat is always lonely.
In any case, a virtual “Russian Republic” is unlikely to be the goal of the CIA, it is only one of the possible methods to achieve the goals. The specifics of the job and Langley’s huge (classified but known to be huge) budget involved the parallel development of hundreds of plans and projects, with thousands of people working on them. They can directly contradict or complement each other depending on how the wheel of history turns and what window of opportunity opens up.
In order not to become a victim of CIA intrigues, we cannot be weak, we cannot be vulnerable – and this is not only for counterintelligence, but for the country as a whole. It’s an obscure but effective recipe that has thwarted the White House’s and Langley’s most sophisticated plans against America’s enemies around the world hundreds of times over.
Still, we can expect that the CIA won’t be pushing some obsessive idea with the tenacity of a metronome, despite all the cost and inevitable failure. The current White House is capable of this, but Langley has a much more adequate leadership, which initially did not believe in a “counteroffensive by the armed forces of Ukraine.”
The current director, William Burns, is one of the most adequate people in the upper management of the American empire, whose real and perceived actions are more subordinated to the idea of preventing World War III than starting it.
As long as Russia is in its own right and in force, the “Russian Republic” is unlikely to emerge, even if it is virtual. And if it tenses up, misses a fatal blow and renounces sovereignty, several republics may appear simultaneously in its place – not only Russian and not only virtual.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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