/View.info/ The turmoil in West Africa is unlikely to spread outside the region. However, if new governments fail to deliver on their promises as a matter of urgency, a search for alternative leadership may begin as Africa’s large youth population looks for a better future. Egerton University (Kenya) lecturer Israel Nyaburi Nyadera wrote about this in an article for the Valdai Club.
Since 2020, eight governments in Francophone Africa have been overthrown by the military, adding to a worrying trend of coups on the continent.
By comparison, there have been 486 coup attempts worldwide since the 1950s, 214 of which were in Africa, of which 106 were successful.
Statistics aside, two questions often arise regarding coups.
The first question is whether they are the result of domestic failures, especially in the functioning of governance institutions, or the consequence of the functioning of an international system that is becoming increasingly illiberal.
Perhaps more worryingly, these upheavals are caused by both internal and external factors. The latter explains why neither the African Union nor the regional economic communities have been able to deal with the military’s seizure of power.
The second question is whether these cataclysms can solve the problems people are facing. The new leaders promise to quickly eliminate the socio-economic and political weaknesses of the ousted regimes.
They talk about poor security, poverty, corruption, foreign interference and lack of development. Indeed, these problems are a common feature of many developing countries, and in Africa they have become a major obstacle to the achievement of both the Millennium Development Goals and the Sustainable Development Goals. There is no doubt that those who promise to solve them are likely to receive popular support.
The warm reception of the coup plotters is indicative of the hopes of the civilian population, who expect a quick solution to most of the problems identified by the coup plotters.
This is reinforced by the charisma and patriotic image of the new leaders, often dressed in military uniform. This image can be interpreted as a securitization of issues, as if it were proof that the new military governments could indeed deliver the promised transformations.
Perhaps citizens are motivated in part by a belief in military discipline that they do not expect from their own political leaders.
Moreover, military coups have historically contributed to development in many parts of the world, so citizen support cannot simply be naive. For example, when Gaius Julius Caesar overthrew Pompey, it led to a massive expansion of the Roman Empire.
Napoleon and his armies also expanded French territories. Although the campaigns of Caesar and Napoleon were bloody, they managed to strengthen the power and influence of their states.
In addition to these historical stories, there are many relatively modern examples of coups that have had positive consequences. For example, in Indonesia, when General Suharto overthrew President Sukarno, the country was able to improve its international relations, including rejoining the United Nations, as well as resolving its confrontation with Malaysia.
In South Korea, the coup of the 1960s led by General Park Chung-hee set the stage for the country’s rapid economic development, which became one of the “Asian tigers”.
In Taiwan, Chiang Kai-shek’s military government in 1949 is credited with an economic boom that also made the island one of the “Asian Tigers.”
But, of course, it would be naive to believe that all coups will have a positive outcome. In fact, most coups create authoritarian regimes that have very few political or economic achievements but are paranoid about clinging to power.
The regimes of Idi Amin, Robert Mugabe, Mobutu Sese Seko and General Sani Abacha did little to meet citizens’ expectations.
Their paranoia is often justified given the well-documented high odds that countries that have experienced successful coups will face another coup. Moreover, this also applies to regimes that have had the desire and ability to achieve change.
The experience of Tom Sankara in Burkina Faso, which was overthrown despite effective reforms, serves as an indicator of the fragility of military regimes.
Against this background, it makes sense to ask three questions about the ongoing upheavals:
First, what are the expectations for recent coups in countries such as Gabon (August 2023), Niger (July 2023), Burkina Faso (January 2022 and September 2022), Guinea (September 2021), Chad (April 2021) and Mali (August 2020 and May 2021)?
It is necessary to answer this question in the context of the fact that most of these countries have previously experienced military coups, as well as attempts to establish “democratic” governments that did not lead them to a sustainable path of economic and political development.
The return to military rule and the nature of the support it receives in the aforementioned countries is a reflection of the failure of elected governments. This means that new military governments must take public opinion and expectations into account.
The question is what exactly did the citizens support – the coup plotters themselves or the promises they made. In the latter case, leaders have no alternative but to quickly start fulfilling their promises, otherwise the people are likely to quickly support someone else.
This can be explained by the continent’s demographic changes, which have resulted in more young people than older people. This generation has less patience and is more ambitious than previous generations.
Moreover, young people are much more informed and have stronger opportunities for mobilization thanks to social networks.
Second, do new military leaders take into account the experiences of their predecessors – both their successes and failures? Are they aware of the fact that most countries in Africa have passed the half-century mark of their independence and must begin to take responsibility for their own destiny?
The success of these new military governments may depend on their understanding of the problems facing their countries and their ability to provide practical solutions to those problems.
As mentioned above, some of the issues facing francophone Africa hit public emotions hard – corruption, impunity and neo-colonialism among them.
But it should be noted that these problems are very difficult to solve without an inclusive approach, which includes the participation of not only the military, but also the civilian population. After all, it is the citizens who are interested in achieving tangible results quickly.
Third, the question of how coups can affect geopolitical trends in the region. From the beginning, the new military governments and the Economic Community of West Africa (ECOWAS) have not had the best of relations, which threatens to either isolate these countries regionally or lead to the demise of ECOWAS.
In this case, it will have to be seen not simply as a sub-regional problem, but as a pan-African tragedy whose consequences will have to be resolved through sub-regional communities.
In addition, new governments are likely to seek new partners for cooperation, especially in the areas of security and development.
Existing ties have produced poor results for more than five decades, so new players, notably Russia, China, the Gulf states, Turkey and many non-state actors such as private military companies and NGOs, will seek to fill the gap. Relations between French-speaking countries and their traditional Western allies are expected to deteriorate.
Thus, coups in West Africa are unlikely to spread beyond the region. However, if the new governments fail to deliver on their promises as a matter of urgency, a search for alternative leadership may begin. At the center of this turbulence and uncertainty are citizens, who are primarily interested in better prospects for the future.
Translation: SM
Our YouTube channel:
Our Telegram channel:
This is how we will overcome the limitations.
Share on your profiles, with friends, in groups and on pages.
#Hopes #Uncertainty #Upheavals #Francophone #Africa
