Right now, Russia has an advantage in the war, but they are struggling to exploit this properly and achieve the big breakthrough.
This is what chief researchers Tor Bukkvoll and Kristian Åtland at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI) say in a recent episode of the institute’s podcast, Ugradert.
What will seriously affect the war going forward is the cessation of support from the United States, and by extension, Ukraine’s lack of ammunition.
– It could become a problem beyond the spring, and especially in the summer, says Bukkvoll.
He explains that in the next few weeks, the war zones will go through one of the much talked about mud periods, which occur twice a year: Autumn and spring. It is then difficult for both parties to move heavy vehicles off the paved road, which temporarily reduces the risk of a major breakthrough.
– But when it gets dry this summer, and if Ukraine continues to weaken, especially considering that they have little artillery ammunition, then it is scary, says Bukkvoll.
Russia has a golden chance
At the beginning of February, the EU approved an aid package worth 50 billion euros for Ukraine, but a renewal of American support is still incredibly important for Ukraine.
– The USA is a big question mark that only gets bigger and bigger, says Bukkvoll.
He adds that ammunition production is now being built up in Europe, but that this takes time.
– It will probably only take effect towards the end of this year, so it is a scary period ahead. Russia has a golden chance in 2024, says Bukkvoll, who is also not sure whether European aid will be able to fully replace American aid in the long term, should the latter disappear completely.
RUSSIA: Ukraine must hold out until 2026
But is there light at the end of the tunnel for Ukraine? Yes, believes Bukkvoll, referring to the British think tank RUSI (The Royal United Services Institute).
In a fresh analysis Namely, RUSI believes that Russia’s offensive power will reach its peak towards the end of 2024. Here, a wide range of factors have been taken into account, including recruitment pace, personnel losses, tank stocks and industrial capacity, as well as trade and arms support from Russia’s allies in, among others, Belarus, North Korea and Iran.
At today’s pace, the war will begin to take its toll on Russia in 2025, partly because many military vehicles that the Russians need on the front line will require maintenance and repair, writes RUSI.
– And in the course of 2026, the stocks of tanks, which the Russians drive forward to a great extent, will start to run out, says Bukkvoll.
– So RUSI thinks that if Ukraine manages to hold off until 2026, opportunities will open up for Ukraine to go on the offensive, adds the FFI researcher.
Difficult with big offensives
In the podcast, Bukkvoll and Åtland discuss how the war has a dimension that has never been seen before in the history of war, namely an enormous number of drones. That, along with Russia’s defenses, is the answer to why Ukraine’s large-scale offensive this summer failed.
– Warfare has simply changed its nature, in that drones have become so decisive in warfare. Not only did they make Ukraine’s counter-offensive fail, but they are also the cause of the stalemate that we see now. With the huge amount of drones, both sides in the war see everything the other is doing. It is almost impossible to gather forces now, because then you will be exposed to heavy artillery attacks right away. Ukraine tried this early in the offensive, but suffered terrible losses. Therefore, they moved away from that strategy. So neither Ukraine nor Russia is doing this now, says Åtland.
New mobilization in Ukraine?
The podcast also discusses the conflict between President Zelensky and the defense chief he recently deposed, Valery Zaluzhny. It has long been known that the two have had a strained relationship, which worsened after the chief of defense in an interview with The Economist in November described the war against Russian forces as deadlocked. A lesser-known part of the conflict between the two is the extent to which Ukraine should mobilize more Ukrainian soldiers or not.
– Zaluzhny is said to have been frustrated by Zelenskyi’s inability and willingness to carry out a new round of mobilization. Zaluzhnyi asked for 450,000-500,000 new soldiers, says Åtland.
Nettavisen was recently in Ukraine, and got to see, experience and hear about the parallel society that has arisen there. The cafes in Kyiv are buzzing with life, the restaurants are open, and the streets are teeming with people, seemingly unaffected by the bloody battles taking place further south and east of the country. The war seems far away.
Read more: Mykyta risks everything to stop the Russians: – Surreal
Therefore, a new round of mobilization, just like in Russia, will be unpopular for those affected.
– Among other things, because you will have to go down in the age groups, and call up young people as far down as their 20s. The average age of the Ukrainian soldiers on the front line is now high, it is over 40 years, explains Åtland.
– Many of these soldiers have great competence, long experience and do a good job, but you cannot expect them to stay at the front forever. At the same time, Ukraine’s political authorities want, to the extent possible, to protect young people who are studying, who have a large burden of support or who work in public administration and so on. It is this generation that will build Ukraine’s future once this war is over. This is probably one of the reasons why the country’s president and parliament have spent a lot of time processing this proposal for a new mobilization, says the chief researcher.
– So they haven’t decided yet?
– I think this will force itself, Åtland replies.
2024-03-04 04:59:00
#Thinks #Putin #golden #chance #Scary
