The Impact of Middle East Conflict on UK Politics: Analysis of the Rochdale By-Election and Labour’s Future
The conflict in the Middle East has had a profound effect on UK politics, as demonstrated by the recent Rochdale by-election and its implications for the Labour Party. The winner of the by-election, George Galloway, claimed to have given mainstream parties a “spanking,” but does his victory truly represent a crisis for these parties?
The Conservative vote in Rochdale plummeted by 19 points, which can be attributed, in part, to the polarizing comments made by former Conservative deputy chairman, Lee Anderson, about London mayor Sadiq Khan. However, it is worth noting that the Conservative vote also fell substantially in other campaigns where the Middle East conflict was less prominent. This suggests that there are other factors at play beyond the impact of the conflict.
The Rochdale result raises questions about the Labour Party’s handling of the by-election. The party initially selected Azhar Ali as their candidate, despite his remarks being widely alleged to be antisemitic. It was only after significant backlash that the party disowned him. This misstep undoubtedly contributed to Galloway’s victory. However, it is impossible to know if Galloway would have won if Labour had campaigned differently.
To avoid further divisions, the Labour leadership has recently shifted its position on Gaza, calling for an “immediate humanitarian ceasefire.” This change in stance may have been welcomed by pro-Palestinian voters, but it remains to be seen if it will be enough to regain their support.
The Rochdale result is certainly a setback for Labour, with many MPs feeling depressed and apprehensive about the future. There is a fear that Galloway’s victory has granted him a toxic platform and could foster more division within and between communities. Some MPs believe that Labour’s perceived slowness in shifting its position on Gaza helped create a space in which Galloway could thrive. However, they also believe that the party’s policy is now in the right place.
Despite the Rochdale result, it is unlikely to be indicative of wider electoral doom for Labour. The party easily won by-elections in Kingswood and Wellingborough, which took place after the Rochdale candidate controversy but before Labour called for a ceasefire. These areas do not have large Muslim populations like Rochdale, and the phrase “time for a change” is more commonly heard in focus groups.
Galloway’s victory in Rochdale can be attributed to his ability to campaign on both local and global issues. He addressed concerns about the declining state of the town center and its lack of a maternity ward, resonating with voters who felt their concerns had been ignored. However, in most parts of the country, the change is still in favor of Labour, which is currently leading in the polls.
There is some optimism among Labour MPs that the party can win back Rochdale at the general election, as they did in Bradford in 2015 after losing a by-election to Galloway in 2012. However, there are concerns about a small handful of constituencies where Labour’s hold may be shaky, such as Tower Hamlets and Bethnal Green and Bow.
The newly-elected Rochdale MP has raised the possibility of his Workers Party of Britain standing in 60 seats at the general election, causing further worry among Labour MPs. Additionally, Green candidates and ceasefire-supporting supporters of Jeremy Corbyn are considering contesting Labour-held seats. While these challenges may not have a significant impact on the general election result, they contribute to the nervousness felt by some Labour MPs as long as the conflict in Gaza continues.
In conclusion, the Middle East conflict has undeniably influenced UK politics, as seen in the Rochdale by-election and its implications for the Labour Party. While Galloway’s victory is a setback for Labour, it is not necessarily indicative of wider electoral doom. The party’s policy shift on Gaza may help regain support, but challenges from other parties and factions within Labour will continue to pose a threat. As long as the conflict persists, the nervousness among Labour MPs is likely to persist as well.
