Unpredictable Season for Top Teams in Men’s College Basketball Sets Stage for Wild March Madness
The 2024 season of men’s college basketball has been a rollercoaster ride for top teams, with unexpected losses and constant changes in the rankings. Only one team, the Purdue Boilermakers, has managed to maintain a spot in the top five of the AP Top 25 poll throughout the entire season. Other teams like the UConn Huskies, Houston Cougars, and Kansas Jayhawks have also been consistent fixtures in the top 10, but even they have experienced their fair share of ups and downs.
In a surprising turn of events, UConn and Purdue, who were ranked No. 1 and No. 2 respectively at one point, suffered defeats as favorites on the road within a span of two days. This trend has been seen across the board, with teams like the Arizona Wildcats, Baylor Bears, Duke Blue Devils, and Tennessee Volunteers experiencing significant fluctuations in their poll positions over the past four months.
One notable example is the journey of Antonio Reeves, Reed Sheppard, and the Kentucky Wildcats. They started the season ranked 16th but climbed to No. 6 by midseason. However, they have recently fallen outside the top 20 after multiple losses against unranked opponents.
This season has been marked by unpredictability, making it one of the most volatile in the past 15 years. This unpredictability could translate into an even more chaotic March Madness tournament.
According to Sportradar data, teams ranked in the AP Top 25 have a combined record of 505-198 this season, resulting in a winning percentage of 71.8%. This winning percentage is the third lowest since the 2009-10 season, only surpassing last season and the previous one. In previous years, top-ranked teams had a win rate of 74.4%.
The trend is similar for teams ranked in the top 10. Their collective record this season stands at 205-74, resulting in a winning percentage of 73.5%. This is significantly lower than the pre-2024 average of 78.8% for the nation’s best teams. The only season with a worse performance by the top 10 since 2009-10 was the 2020-21 season.
The regular-season upsets have given lower-tier teams more opportunities to defeat elite teams and have caused confusion about who the favorite for the national title should be as we approach the NCAA tournament.
Upon closer examination, two factors emerge as driving forces behind the struggles of top-ranked teams. Firstly, these teams have had difficulty winning on the road. Historically, top 25 teams have had a winning percentage of 57.0% in away games. However, this season, they have won less than half of their road games, with a winning percentage of 49.6%. Even top-10 teams, who appear to fare better, only break even in road contests with a winning percentage of 51%. These figures are significantly lower than the pre-2023-24 averages.
For example, the No. 7-ranked Kansas Jayhawks have a 3-5 record in away games this season, with their highest-ranked opponent being the then-No. 23-ranked Iowa State Cyclones, to whom they lost 79-75. Other teams like Colorado State, Texas Tech, BYU, and Wisconsin have also struggled on the road, losing by significant margins.
Secondly, ranked teams have had a particularly tough time against unranked opponents this season. Historically, top 25 teams have won 81.1% of their games against unranked opponents. However, this season they have only managed to win 76.8% of the time. Top-10 teams have fared even worse, winning only 78.1% of their games against unranked opponents. These figures are far below the usual average of 85.5% for top-10 teams.
Teams like Colorado State, San Diego State, Wisconsin, BYU, Kentucky, Kansas, and Creighton have struggled to secure victories against unranked opponents, further contributing to the unpredictability of the season.
The implications of these struggles for the NCAA tournament are significant. There is a clear connection between the performance of ranked teams during the regular season and the number of upsets witnessed in the tournament. Seasons with strong records for top 25 teams have seen an upset rate of 12.2% in the round of 64, while seasons with weaker records have seen an upset rate of 15.4%.
The same trends hold for teams that struggle on the road or against unranked opponents. Seasons with poor road records for top 25 teams have seen an increase in first-round upsets, as have seasons with poor records against unranked opponents.
This makes sense when considering that the NCAA tournament often presents higher-seeded teams with challenges similar