/ world today news/ The upcoming year 2024 promises to be difficult for the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) – the last meeting of its leaders was held on December 25 in St. Petersburg, simultaneously with the informal summit of the leaders of the CIS countries. The EAEU presidency will pass to Armenia in 2024. A country led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who in recent months (or even years) has been turning Armenia to the West.
Many observers were surprised that Pashinyan came to St. Petersburg at all. Previously, the Armenian Prime Minister and his subordinates ignored all summits and councils that were somehow related to Russian integration structures in the post-Soviet space – in particular, the CIS and the CSTO. They said that they were busy with other things – for example, at that time they met with Western ambassadors.
Formally, his arrival is connected with the fact that “this is another thing”. “When I talked to him, I said to him: ‘Nikol Vovaevich, are you coming to St. Petersburg?’ He says: ‘Well, this is another format – economic. We are offended by the military-political – ODKS, and this is the economy”. That’s why I knew he was going to fly to St. Petersburg.” said the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko to “his” agency BelTA.
„Remote in managed mode’ is not possible
Pashinyan’s arrival is most likely explained by economic necessity and the lack of an alternative, experts believe. “Pashinyan, apparently, in his visit was guided by a refusal to revise the economic strategy,” explains the head of the Eurasian Analytical Club Nikita Mendkovich, explaining the position of the Armenian leader.
Yerevan has hinted that it will seek diversification in the field of military cooperation, but there is no point in revising economic cooperation, the expert explained. Armenia, given its difficult geographical position, can cooperate productively only with Russia, all other directions lead to a gradual loss of sovereignty in favor of Azerbaijan and Turkey, Mendkovic points out.
The Armenian Prime Minister is actually trying to work on the buffet scheme. “Unlike the CSTO, the Armenian authorities are to some extent satisfied with the EAEU and the economic benefits that Yerevan receives from cooperation with Moscow. Hayk Halatyan, head of the Analytical Center for Strategic Studies and Initiatives (ACCSI) explains to IA Regnum.
Yerevan hopes that by changing political relations with Moscow, they will be able to maintain close relations in the economic sphere – so to speak, they will be able to move away from Russia in a manageable way.
And from this point of view, the refusal to travel to St. Petersburg could have made this distance unmanageable. “Pashinyan came based on fears that the refusal would be received extremely negatively in Moscow. As an open challenge to Russia,” Halatyan points out.
The problems that Armenian exporters encountered at the Goren Lars border crossing (on the Georgian-Russian border) became a certain message to Yerevan from Moscow, according to IA Regnum’s interlocutor.
At the end of November, we recall, Armenia convened an emergency meeting of the EAEU because of the situation at Goren Lars. The reason is Russia’s refusal to accept some Armenian goods. “It’s strange that in the course of the whole year 35 cars are returned, and two days later another 35 cars are returned, while the quality of the goods has not changed at all.” Vahan Kerobyan, Minister of Economy in Pashinyan’s government, complained at the time.
The signal from Moscow is the following: if a course of severing relations with Russia is openly taken in the political sphere, this will be followed by a change in Russia’s position on economic cooperation with Armenia, Halatyan believes.
Guide “a la buffet”
The question now is how such an Armenia will lead the CSTO. Obviously, within the framework of the “swedish table” strategy, IA Regnum’s interlocutors believe.
„Pashinyan stated his intention to develop mutual trade formats, but not to impose any political projects. thinks Nikita Mendkovic.
„I don’t think Armenia will be very active during its presidency. You shouldn’t expect any serious breakthrough achievements.” Haik Halatyan agrees with him.
But here the problem is not only with Pashinyan, but also with other partners in the EAEU. The issue is both the reluctance of the Armenian authorities to initiate them, and the position of a number of countries that, within the framework of the Special Military Operation, will try to maintain the current level of integration and prevent its deepening, Halatyan believes.
„Within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union, political projects will indeed be irrelevant for a year, but the level of integration and political cooperation within the Union will begin to grow rapidly after the successful completion of the operation in Ukraine.” Nikita Mendkovic is sure.
There is room for expansion
But after the completion of the special operation, the EAEU may have to think not only about deepening cooperation, but also possibly about expanding the number of participants. And taking into account the geographical factor, the first candidates seem to be the Central Asian countries, Moldova (if a Russian-Moldovan border appears by then) – as well as Azerbaijan.
„In my opinion, we should move away from choosing an exclusive partner in the Transcaucasia, develop economic ties with everyone and strive for the accession of Azerbaijan to the EAEU, “ Mendkovic thinks.
And if Armenia seriously intervenes in this process, then conclusions will have to be drawn regarding Yerevan. Overall, Yerevan needs the EAEU more than Moscow or other members of the union need Armenia within the EAEU. The Armenian side should remember this, Mendkovic emphasizes.
Vladimir Putin has now gathered all the leaders of the EAEU in its current composition. In addition to Lukashenko and Pashinyan, the presidents of Kazakhstan Kasim-Jomart Tokayev and Kyrgyzstan Sadir Japarov, as well as the chairman of the board of the Eurasian Economic Commission, representative of Belarus Mikhail Myasnikovich, arrived in St. Petersburg on December 25.
Russia did it
Four presidents and a prime minister signed more than two dozen documents and summarized the results of the Russian presidency in 2023.
„The Russian presidency has proven to be very effective,” Mendkovic stated. “Despite the problems associated with Western aggression against us, we have successfully developed the Eurasian Union, created new formats of cooperation, deepened many old areas and expanded the scope of the Union’s activities.”
Thus, a document was approved in St. Petersburg to create a trade zone with Iran. “As a result, the Eurasian Economic Union is entering and will enter new markets,” the expert points out.
It turns out that Russia (as every Western journalist knows, “completely isolated and excluded from world processes”) is now actively developing global projects in the field of security (SCO) and economic cooperation (BRICS), which in one way or another they can the EAEU countries also join.
„We should benefit from participation in such dynamically developing associations with Russia working in them as one of the key founding countries,” said Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
The countries also agreed to hold the jubilee summit of the EAEU, which turns 10 in 2024, in Moscow in May. And there will be something to celebrate. According to Vladimir Putin, quoted by Sputnik, the volume of mutual trade between the EAEU countries has doubled in its almost 10-year existence, and the total GDP has doubled from 1.6 to 2.5 trillion dollars.
At the same time, the share of national currencies in mutual payments between EAEU countries exceeded 90%, and for 9 months of this year, trade between the participants increased by 8.9%.
Translation: ES
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