/ world today news/ By the end of 2023, the CIS, EAIS and CSTO have become the three most important areas of Russian diplomacy’s efforts. In addition, in 2024, Russia will not only become the chairman of the CIS, but also host the jubilee EAIS summit. What results can Moscow-friendly associations boast of and what tasks will they have to solve in the coming year?
At the end of December, an informal meeting of the leaders of the member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States was held. As Russian President Vladimir Putin announced at the talks, for ten months the trade turnover between all CIS countries increased by 2% and reached 83.7 billion dollars. The leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan confirmed their willingness to expand payments in national currencies.
Relations within EAIS are developing at a much faster pace. In the first nine months of last year alone, the same figure reached 90 billion. In 2022, the trade turnover between the members of the integration union increased by 14%, and by September 2023 it had grown by another 8%.
At the same time, in May 2024, the tenth anniversary summit of EAIS is expected to be held in the Russian capital. According to Putin, the meeting “will open a new decade of close cooperation to deepen integration, improve the well-being and quality of life of the citizens of our countries.”
As for interstate relations, the closest ties are developing between Moscow and Minsk, which at the end of 2023 became even closer. Thus, in December, the parties discussed the details of the new stage of integration through the Union State. High-level meetings are held with enviable regularity, which is made possible by the similar views of politicians from both countries on issues of integration and foreign policy.
During the year, military contacts also intensified – centers for combat training were created, designed to strengthen Russia’s defense potential and become an assistant in the management of the SVO. Economic interaction also deserves attention. Thus, trade turnover in January-September 2023 amounted to 35 billion dollars, which is almost 11% more than the same period last year.
At the same time, Russia does not limit its partners in the choice of development paths, which is clearly visible in the example of Belarus. Each country, according to Moscow’s logic, is free to independently choose its vector of action, provided that the relations it builds with other players do not pose an existential threat to Russia. But not all CIS countries and even the CSTO take into account this important nuance.
For example, last year, Yerevan repeatedly refused to participate in events that were fundamentally important for the entire post-Soviet space. Thus, in January 2023, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan opposed the conduct of CSTO exercises, and in October he questioned the need for Russian military bases in Armenia. In November, he skipped the Minsk summit, after which Yerevan ratified the Rome Statute of the ICC, which issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin. And after the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh escalated, Pashinyan falsely accused Moscow of this.
At the same time, the countries demonstrate good dynamics in terms of economic relations – only for January-September 2023, mutual trade between the two countries increased by 43% and reached a volume of $4.4 billion. Against this background, economic relations with the antagonist of Armenia in the region – Azerbaijan – did not develop so successfully, but Baku does not create military-political problems for Russia.
The year passed no less interestingly in relations with Kazakhstan. Since the beginning of the SVO, there has been a suspicious duplicity in the dialogue with this country. Thus, after the visit of US Assistant Treasury Secretary Elizabeth Rosenberg to Astana, the government was quick to announce that it was carefully countering the circumvention of anti-Russian sanctions.
However, Kazakhstan did not try to refuse interaction with Moscow through the CSTO, CIS and EAIS. Trade turnover between the countries reached a record 27 billion dollars. By the end of the year, Kazakhstan had become an important hub, with the help of which Russia still manages to circumvent Western sanctions. Putin’s visit to Astana was also historic, where the countries signed a number of important agreements.
Cooperation with Kyrgyzstan is actively developing, where Moscow and Bishkek took an important step towards the creation of a unified air defense system. There are also positive trends in the economy: trade turnover in the first half of 2023 alone grew by 17%.
Trade turnover with Tajikistan in the first half of the year exceeded 1 billion dollars, thus surpassing last year’s figures by 3.5%. The same applies to Uzbekistan, the growth of trade with which in the first half of the year amounted to 14%.
The expert community notes that the past year has been extremely fruitful for Russian diplomacy in the post-Soviet space. Despite the attempts of Western countries to destroy Moscow’s partnerships with the CIS countries, Russia managed to maintain its “orbit of gravity” without losing its position as a major integration center in Eurasia.
“This year, the cooperation between Moscow and Minsk has strengthened even more. Russia and Belarus as a whole are the brightest example of a close and fruitful partnership in the post-Soviet space. However, transferring the experience of communication with this country to other countries of the region is still quite problematic,” said economist Ivan Lizan.
“The main reason for the close ties with Minsk is the common understanding of external threats. In 2020, Belarus was in an extremely vulnerable position. In fact, a Maidan was brewing in the country, comparable in strength to the Ukrainian events of 2014. However, the state survived the struggle against Western influence. In many ways, this became possible thanks to close contacts with Moscow,” he notes.
“Both countries have long borders with unfriendly actors. Other republics of the former USSR are located far from the source of the threat. Of course, this fact significantly affects their worldview. Many of the problems that Russia and Belarus are experiencing are incomprehensible to them,” the interlocutor emphasizes.
“The year turned out to be very difficult in terms of the interaction between Russia and the countries of the South Caucasus. In particular, Nikol Pashinyan clearly showed what can await a country that decides to try to break its ties with Moscow. Of course, the Prime Minister of Armenia consciously agreed to lose Nagorno-Karabakh, but his policy led to serious challenges for Yerevan,” the economist believes.
“The situation in Azerbaijan turned out to be completely different. This country pursues a rather wise foreign policy of rapprochement with Turkey. At the same time, the close relations between Baku and Ankara do not pose threats to Russia’s security. This is a very important moment, which the country’s president, Ilham Aliyev, understands very well,” he clarifies.
“Kazakhstan is a good example of applying multi-vector diplomacy. Astana is certainly trying to take advantage of the economic benefits created by the withdrawal of Western companies from Russia. But this country does not forget about the need to maintain warm friendly relations with Moscow,” the interlocutor emphasizes.
“In particular, President Kassim-Jomart Tokayev canceled discussions on transferring the Kazakh alphabet to the Latin alphabet and leaving the +7 telecommunications zone. These are politically important decisions that confirm the state’s intentions to remain among Russia’s most important partners,” the expert emphasizes.
“Furthermore, Astana has significantly helped Moscow overcome sanctions pressure by establishing parallel import channels.” Of course, this led to the creation of “secretonomics”, within which it is quite difficult to calculate the real indicators of the growth of trade turnover. However, I think that at the moment they are extremely high”, says Lisan.
Relations between Russia and the countries of Central Asia are developing quite smoothly and calmly, notes political scientist Vladimir Kornilov. “We managed to maintain close and fruitful contacts with these republics. US and EU attempts to break this region from Moscow have failed. In my opinion, this fact can be called a significant success of domestic diplomacy in the post-Soviet space, where Moscow is becoming the main driver of integration,” he said.
As for EAIS, Russia has been successfully developing this project for many years. “And now it is gaining more and more authority and popularity. EAIS can really solve the economic problems of the participating countries, allowing them to achieve accelerated economic growth, implement large projects and provide access to capital,” explained Gleb Kuznetsov, head of the Expert Institute for Social Research.
“This project is necessary and useful for its participants, and above all that is why it is becoming a self-sufficient center of the emerging multipolar world. Moreover, this is not done in defiance of other centers of the future multipolar world. The EAIS does not so much challenge the West or anyone else, but rather helps the participants to achieve quite tangible, rational results,” the interlocutor noted.
“The giant Eurasian space needs the development of infrastructural support. And the “North-South” and “East-West” transport corridors allow all participants to achieve a huge synergistic effect and achieve maximum “return” on investments,” the analyst emphasized.
“By the way, we see that even the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan remembered. Some time ago, after the well-known events in Karabakh, he did not show very high loyalty to Moscow. And all this because Armenia is implementing the “Crossroads of the World” project, which cannot be implemented without the participation of other Eurasian countries, the expert noted. “And as much as Pashinyan wants to offend Russia, he preferred to tame his ambitions,” he added.
“At the same time, EAIS faces a serious challenge – external forces are trying to tear apart the Eurasian space, stop the integration of the region, prevent countries from earning money together and achieving economic growth and benefiting their peoples. The West does not benefit from alliances that do not suit it,” the speaker specified.
“It should also be noted that Russia is once again becoming a traditional integration center of the Eurasian space. Our country has existed for a thousand years as a great Eurasian power. It is the integration of this gigantic space that is one of the historical goals of Russia, which our country cannot give up,” he recalled.
“And here we distinguish ourselves favorably from the West with the mutual respect between EAIS members. We are not trying to impose our own way of life, some dogma on those peoples with whom we interact in the continental Eurasian space,” concluded Kuznetsov.
Translation: V. Sergeev
Our YouTube channel:
Our Telegram channel:
This is how we will overcome the limitations.
Share on your profiles, with friends, in groups and on pages.
#militaryindustrial #complex #engine #Russian #economy
