/ world today news/ An increasing number of Japanese refuse to trust the Japanese Prime Minister and his cabinet. But what is even more dangerous for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is the decline in public support for the “money party” itself, mired in corruption scandals.
Today, 79% of Japanese respondents disapprove of the government and its leader, which is a record. And only 16% still hope that the situation will change in favor of the current administration.
The LDP, according to recent polls, has only 26% support, which is clearly not enough to win if a general election is held in the near future.
Kishida’s predecessors, who also faced a sharp decline in popular support, behaved more honorably – without clinging to power, they resigned themselves to the verdict of the people and left the post of political leader. This is what former prime ministers Yoshiro Mori and Yoshihide Suga did, maintaining honor and dignity by Japanese standards.
But Kishida seems to have different, different from the samurai, concepts of honor and dignity. Instead of taking responsibility, not only as Prime Minister, but also as Chairman of the LDP, for the financial machinations of party factions, including his own, he tries to present himself as some sort of arbiter standing above all, ready to restore order in the party and, as he constantly repeats, “to regain the trust of the people in the LDP”.
But he does it, as they say, not very well. Moreover, as is obvious to all, he decided to take advantage of the scandal to settle scores with the largest opposition faction in the LDP, which bears the name of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who died in an assassination attempt.
To begin with, he, without waiting for the conclusions of the prosecutor’s office in Tokyo investigating the crimes of the lawmakers, removed from the cabinet and the party leadership all people from the “Abe faction”, replacing them with those who are considered independent, that is, not part of the faction , MPs from the LDP.
However, it proved difficult to find people willing to be in the office, already known in Japan as a “boat stuck in a swamp”. Because those who agreed to stay at least for a short time, as they joke in Japan, “for the obituary”, with the rank of Minister of Politics, perfectly understand that no matter how much Kishida resists, the government will have to resign.
What is Kishida counting on? His main trump card is that, by law, the country must adopt a state budget by the end of March (in Japan, the new fiscal year begins on April 1).
So he wants, citing the fact that, as we say, it is not good to “change horses in mid-stream,” we should hold out until April for a start. So, they say, let’s pass the budget, then we’ll see.
But that’s not all. Kishida has another trump card in the long sleeve of the kimono – “sode”. This is an official invitation for a state visit to the United States, received personally by President Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised if it turns out that Kishida himself asked Biden about it, trying to shore up his plummeting approval rating through widespread foreign policy action.
Japanese political observers, knowing how the Japanese react to such diplomatic events that raise the country’s prestige in the world, admit that this ploy may have an effect and Kishida will remain in the prime minister’s chair until the next election for the chairman of the LDP. , scheduled for September. However, according to many observers, this will still be the “last tour” of the current prime minister.
At the same time, there is another serious underwater reef where Kishida will be forced by the entire cabinet to resign, after which early parliamentary elections will be announced. This insidious rift may be a split in the LDP that already happened in the first half of the 1990s.
Two major factions, Abe’s and another heavyweight, former party general secretary Toshihiro Nikaya, who are at the center of the prosecutor’s investigation, will not forgive Kishida for the humiliation they had to suffer when they expelled all members of their associations who they held major government positions and party posts.
It seems that there is now a situation in Japan reminiscent of the situation in 2009, when the then Democratic Party (which included many MPs who left the LDP) in coalition with other smaller parties and groups managed to win the general election and, after ousting the Conservatives from power, formed a coalition government.
Now this is almost impossible due to irreconcilable differences and rivalry between the leaders of the parliamentary opposition parties.
An important role in the formation of the future government in Japan, regardless of who it will consist of, will be played by the Buddhist party of “pure politics” – “Komeito”, thanks to the coalition with which it has long supported the LDP and a constitutional majority in the main House of Representatives.
Komeito leaders today, having recently lost the long-time spiritual leader of the Sokka Gakkai Buddhist sect that supported that party, Daisaku Ikeda, and unwilling to be implicated, even indirectly, in any way in the LDP scandal, are showing signs of distancing themselves from its senior partner in the government coalition.
It also plays to Kishida’s advantage that neither the people nor the party can find a replacement for the current prime minister that suits everyone or the majority. As the Japanese news agency Kyodo Tsushin notes:
“As the public grows weary of financial scandals in politics involving factions in the LDP, independent lawmakers are expected to step into the spotlight as potential leadership contenders.”
In particular, the name of former defense minister and LDP secretary-general Shigeru Ishiba, who, because of his non-interference in the scandal and party factions, is favored by up to 20 percent of voters in polls.
But his scathing criticism of current party leaders and their hostility to this politician, who has become a “TV star” on shows critical of the LDP, has effectively ruled out support for the LDP in an election in which the party’s incumbent MPs play a crucial role. Because, as in the USA, the election of the country’s political leader is not direct and not popular.
Nihon University professor Masahiro Iwasaki recalls that Ishiba left the party in an attempt to topple the government in 1993. And after his return, he ran for LDP chairmanship four times, but invariably lost. As a very influential LDP figure once told me, “Ishiba-kun will never become prime minister.”
But times and situations change, and as you know, never say never. According to Professor Iwasaki, lawmakers may support Ishiba as leader to “endure the current situation and win the next lower house election regardless of their personal preferences.”
And Shinichi Nishikawa, a professor of political science at Meiji University, said the next prime minister will carefully consider the timing of dissolving the lower house until the financial scandal subsides, while also monitoring the behavior of the opposition bloc.
“The LDP will wait until the opposition parties drift apart again, even though they recently acted as a united front amid a huge scandal,” Nishikawa said.
According to the law, the next parliamentary elections for the House of Representatives must be held in a year and a half, in 2025. And it is very profitable for the LDP, especially in the event of a split, to wait until that date.
However, the current scandal has seriously stirred up the Japanese people, increasing their anger at how, using “black cash registers” and “secret money”, the “servants of the people” are fattening up, ignoring the interests of the masses, whose living standards are falling before their eyes.
Therefore, it is possible that Kishida will not be able to implement his “cunning plan” to hold on to power and, under pressure from the masses and the media, will still take responsibility for his failed leadership by leaving the prime minister’s chair.
PS Kishida’s approval rating dropped to 7.9 percent. With such “support” to cling to power is simply indecent…
Translation: SM
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