Stock dimension – Krungsri Research by Dr. Pimnara Hirankasi, Head of the Economic Research Team Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited Announcement of the overall world economy in 2024. It is likely to grow low, similar to last year’s at 3.1%, along with adjusting the forecast for the expansion of the Thai economy to 2.7%, while the overall economy in the ASEAN-5 group Still growing well at 4.7%
World economy in 2018 2024 has a low growth trend, similar to last year’s at 3.1%. This is a lower growth rate than the 10-year average before COVID-19, which averaged around 3.7%, as the positive effects from opening the country and stimulus measures during COVID-19 will gradually wear off, while the negative effects From many factors, it may impair growth. both the slowdown of the Chinese economy Risk of economic stagnation in Europe Drought conditions from the El Niño phenomenon, the Russian-Ukrainian war and tensions in the Middle East. Economic polarization led by the US and China, which will affect global supply chains. and may cause the globalization trend to be fragmented Globalization) creates a ripple effect on trade and investment around the world. In addition, the use of high interest rate policies in many countries during 2023-2024 will affect costs and debt burdens of the public and private sectors. Therefore, overall, the world economy still has Risk of stagnation However, inflationary pressures are likely to subside in 2024, which will help open the way for core countries to reduce interest rates to prevent prolonged economic weakness.
As for the Thai economy, it tends to grow according to the economic cycle. Even though the recovery is still not widespread and there is still high uncertainty. It is expected to expand at 2.7% in 2024, accelerating from 1.9% in 2023, driven mostly by domestic factors. These include: (i) the continued recovery of the tourism sector From government support measures and improved ability to accommodate tourists. The number of foreign tourists is expected to increase from 28.2 million in 2023 to 35.6 million in 2024, although it has not yet returned to the pre-Covid outbreak level of 40 million. (ii) Private consumption remains It will continue to grow at 3.1%, driven by the recovery of the tourism sector and increased employment. In addition, there will also be positive results from government policies that help alleviate the burden of living costs and measures to stimulate spending. (iii) Government spending will play a greater role in driving the economy from the second quarter of 2024 after the Royal Decree. The company’s annual budget of 3.48 trillion baht (an increase of 9.3% from the previous fiscal year) has been approved. This will result in public consumption and investment returning to expand at 1.5% and 2.4%, respectively, from contraction in 2023, and (iv) private investment is expected to grow 3.3% in line with the growth of the sector. serve and groups related to infrastructure investment including government policy to promote important industries. However, the export sector still tends to grow low because it still faces pressure from the weakness of the economies of trading partners. Although there may be specific factors that support exports in some groups, such as the recovery cycle of electronic products, Benefits from maintaining food security and economic cooperation within the region (Regionalization), etc. It is expected that Thai exports will expand only 2.5% in 2024 from a contraction of -1.7% in the previous year.
Even though the overall economy is gradually recovering But the growth rate has continued to trend below 3% since the outbreak of COVID-19. Meanwhile, the average general inflation rate for the entire year 2024 is expected to remain at a continuously low level of 1.1%, slightly slowing down from 1.2% last year. Mid-year onwards To support continued economic recovery
Overall, The Thai economy in 2024 will likely improve. But the growth rate is still low compared to countries in the ASEAN region. As for domestic factors that may put pressure on the growth of the Thai economy, they include high levels of household debt amid rising borrowing costs. The effects of drought may be more severe. including structural problems such as an aging population labor shortage and reduced competitiveness in many industries As for external factors that may create risks in 2024, they include the impact of interest rates in the world’s core countries, which are the highest in more than two decades, which may put pressure on the global economy and the financial sector. Chinese economic slowdown amid fragility in real estate sector The economic polarization between the United States and China and geopolitical conflicts may widen in the future.
ASEAN regional economic trends in 2024
For 2024, it is expected that the economic growth rate in the ASEAN-5 group will be 4.7%, increasing from the previous year’s growth of approximately 4.2%, with domestic demand still being an important driving force. In addition, exports are likely to recover slightly following the resolution of the supply stagnation. Purchasing power has improved due to slower inflation. and pressure from tight financial conditions that are likely to decrease in the second half of this year. However, important challenges to the regional economy include risks from external factors such as the still weak global economy. geopolitical tensions and the El Niño phenomenon These factors will increase uncertainty over the region’s growth prospects through both financial and trade channels. In addition, fiscal policy will become increasingly important. to support supply challenges that are likely to occur more frequently for monetary policy US policy interest rate at a high level and inflation risks from fluctuating commodity prices This may cause most central banks in the ASEAN region to maintain their policy interest rates until mid-2024.
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2024-02-23 06:48:33
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