Concern among NATO member countries from his statements that he will not protect them from Russian attacks if they do not pay the… bill for war expenses
Dangerous discussions and comments about the imminent end of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) were once again sparked in the bosom of Europe by Donald Trump. The candidate for the anointing of the Republican Party in the US elections announced that in the event of his return to the White House, he would not only not protect the NATO member states that “do not pay the bill” (meaning those who do not keep the commitment for 2% of GDP in armaments) from a possible Russian attack, but would instead encourage Russia to “do whatever it wants”.
Ignite the nuclear weapons debate
Trump’s statement fell like a rocket in Europe and reignited the debate in Germany about whether a … nuclear equipment of the old continent is necessary.
The key stake in this debate is whether the 31 members of the alliance can be sure that the United States’ nuclear umbrella – the ultimate deterrent against a possible Russian invasion – will continue to cover them if the tycoon wins the presidential election.
But the crucial question behind the above is in fact whether Europe is ready for a second Trump term. A new four-year Trump won’t just be a déjà vu, but in the light of a presidency even more radical than the first one turns out to be a real fear for the future of Europe and beyond.
Of course, Trump’s extreme rhetoric is no longer impressive, especially when he is in front of his constituents. Worryingly, his personality is his politics. As president in the period 2017-21, he openly disregarded the current rules and balances of international politics, always putting American interests above all. He canceled a number of international agreements and threatened the NATO military alliance with a US withdrawal.
For the above reasons, his statement shook Europe after three years in which President Joe Biden tried to restore confidence in the alliance, repeatedly stressing that the United States “will defend every centimeter of NATO territory.” Characteristically, the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, argued that “Trump’s reckless statements only serve Putin’s interest”, as well as that they “make Europe’s efforts to develop its strategic autonomy and invest in its defense more urgent”.
For his part, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg pointed out: “Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all our security, including that of the US, and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk.” In fact, the Minister of Defense of Denmark, Trolls Lund
Poulsen expressed concern that within three to five years Russia could test NATO’s solidarity by attacking one of its weakest members, attempting to tear the alliance apart by showing that others will not defend it.
Pressure lever on allies
However, it is worth noting that Trump’s view that US allies should provide at least 2% of their annual defense spending is not new. On the contrary, it is a generalized perception of the American establishment, which would like the other NATO member states to assume their own responsibilities instead of relying exclusively on the USA. In this light, his words could be taken as a lever to pressure allies to increase their defense spending rather than a genuine exhortation to Vladimir Putin.
In Europe, Britain and France have their own small nuclear arsenals. If in the near future European members of NATO have doubts about whether the US will remain committed to Article 5 of the alliance’s charter, on the basis of which an attack against one member constitutes an attack against all, the debate about which other countries in Europe need their own nuclear – and not only – weapons.
Concern for Ukraine
A new Trump “hurricane” also raises concerns about the future of Ukraine. The European Union has agreed a new aid package of 50 billion euros over four years to Kiev. But Trump tried behind the scenes, directing Republicans, to block US support for Ukraine. The US Senate may have finally approved a bill to provide $95 billion in aid to the Kiev government, but a new Trump term is raising fears about the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Moreover, a Russian victory would not only mean the end of Ukraine as a free, democratic and independent state, but would also dramatically change the balance in Europe. Moreover, it could serve as a model for other authoritarian leaders around the world.
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