This year marks 20 years since Latvia became a member of NATO. We successfully took advantage of the geopolitical situation at the time and, thanks to the support of the USA and some European countries, implemented Latvia’s biggest strategic goal after the restoration of independence – we joined NATO and a little later also the European Union. Historically, Latvia has always belonged to the European cultural space, and it is only natural that Latvia reintegrated into the rest of Europe, from which we were violently separated due to the ambitions of the nearby superpowers. Apart from the natural belonging to Europe, our membership in NATO has a clear purpose – to prevent the loss of our independence and not to become a victim of the Russian Empire again, knowing that Russian aspirations to conquer the neighboring Baltics have existed for centuries.
Even though NATO is the best possible international solution for Latvia’s security that has ever existed in our history, a large part of our society is still concerned with the question of whether NATO and its allies will defend us in the event of a crisis and a possible war? This issue has been relevant all these years, but it came to the fore most when we saw the brutal Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The Russian invasion caught NATO countries unprepared, both practically and psychologically. The West had spent the last 20 years doing business with Russia, comforting itself that Russia had changed and was not a threat to anyone. The once large and well-armed forces of the West were reduced to a minimum. For example, in Germany, which is the largest European country, we can talk about maybe one and a half combat-capable divisions. Western military industry has been hit hard by disarmament, with many industries shrinking or ceasing to exist.
Psychologically, European societies and their politicians still struggle with the idea that a war is taking place next to them, which in its intensity and brutality is beginning to resemble the Second World War. Therefore, there is a natural desire to see solutions in the usual European compromises, dialogue and diplomacy, often not realizing that until Russia is defeated on the battlefield, the only diplomatic solution to this war is Western concessions at the expense of Ukraine and then at the expense of Russia’s neighboring countries. Although the Western countries have provided significant financial and military aid to Ukraine (the USA – 41 billion euros, Germany – 6.7, France – 3.8), there is nothing to be complacent and self-deceiving here. In terms of proportion to GDP, it is much smaller than Latvia’s aid to Ukraine, but the main thing is that it is not enough and is too late to win this war.
Some of the political leaders of the West still believe that the solution is not military aid, but negotiations and concessions, because the existence of their countries is not threatened and domestic politics is not dominated by Russian threats, but by other actualities. For example, recently at the Munich Security Conference, US Senator JD Vance openly said that “we are not producing enough weapons to support an endless war in Europe”. This raises the question, will weapons and the will to help be enough if Russia attacks one of the European NATO members?
A growing number of political and military observers say that US domestic politics is not only divided, but increasingly isolationist. On the other hand, when describing Western Europe, the lessons of the West about the “Phony War” (Phony War) come to mind, when after the German attack on Poland on September 1, 1939, the Western countries, unprepared for war, kept their promise and opened the Western Front against Hitler, but also with their own more than a hundred divisions did nothing against the poorly prepared German twenty-three divisions. That time there was a lack of determination, and seeing what the attitude towards Ukraine is, many people wonder if the determination will be enough this time? We could know the answer to this for sure only in a specific war situation, but none of us wants to experience that.
What to do? I believe that the only right way is to believe, but to test and remember the proverb that God will protect if we protect ourselves. First of all, it is necessary to strengthen Latvia’s military and civilian readiness for war by investing in military industry and capabilities. It is clear that the defense budget will have to be at least 3.5%, as it is in the US, maybe even more. To a large extent, this would allow the development of Latvia’s economy and prosperity at the same time as solving security issues. Secondly, even closer military cooperation with the neighboring countries – Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Ukraine – must be established urgently. These countries, like us, are existentially threatened by Russia, and close cooperation can be a serious countermeasure to Russian aggression. Third, every effort should be made to explain to countries such as Canada, the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom that if they allow treason against Ukraine by giving in to Russian threats, then the Transatlantic Alliance will cease to exist, European security will be at risk and the Western world will be globally marginalized.
Looking forward to the 20th anniversary of Latvia’s membership in NATO, we can be proud of what we have achieved, but the threat to Latvia’s freedom still exists, and we have a lot of work ahead of us, which we have to do ourselves, because others will help us only if we ourselves have done everything not to lose the most precious – our freedom.
dr. Artis Pabriks, director of the Northern European Policy Center think tank, “Latvia’s development” candidate for the European Parliament elections.
2024-02-22 11:48:05
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