Jakarta –
“God forbid UNRWA goes bankrupt.” This was conveyed by a woman named Sanaa Sarhal, referring to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), the largest humanitarian agency in Gaza. For those who are dependent, the impact will be felt.
“There will be riots and violence,” predicted Sanaa Sarhal. “UNRWA’s bankruptcy… will cause huge losses.”
However, unfortunately Sarhal is not in Gaza, where the conflict is currently raging. This 43-year-old woman lives in Beddawi Camp in northern Lebanon, which was built in 1955 to accommodate Palestinian residents fleeing war and violence. If UNRWA is forced to reduce aid due to a number of accusations against its members in Gaza, this impact will also be felt in Beddawi Camp.
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In January, the Israeli government informed UNRWA that as many as 12 of its 13,000 staff in Gaza may have been involved in the October 7 attack carried out by the Hamas group. As a result, UNRWA fired them and launched an investigation. A number of news agencies such as the Guardian, CNN and the Washington Post, which had seen documents regarding this matter, noted that Israel’s accusations could not be independently verified.
However, as a consequence of these accusations, 16 countries, including UNRWA funders such as Germany, the European Union and America, have stopped donating to the UN agency. Currently, UNRWA survives on voluntary donations from UN member countries.
Since then, much of the focus has been on how the UNRWA funding crisis will affect the already precarious humanitarian situation in Gaza. About 40% of UNRWA’s budget is spent on the region’s nearly 2 million people. The rest was disbursed to several countries that host Palestinian residents such as Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, including the West Bank.
‘Unofficial replacement for the state’
UN expert at the Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group, Daniel Forti, said UNRWA “can at least be understood as an unofficial substitute for a (social welfare) state for Palestinians who do not have one.” This was conveyed by Daniel Forti in a briefing this February.
“In addition, UNRWA also has important symbolic value for Palestinians, who view the agency as one of the last guarantees of the international community for a just and durable solution,” a UNRWA spokesperson said in an email to DW.
This is also why UNRWA is often seen as a politically controversial institution, even before Israel’s accusations about the October 7 attack. “Most of Israel’s political class rejects UNRWA precisely because of its symbolic value for Palestine,” Forti continued. “They argue that any entity that exists to defend the Palestinians’ right of return directly threatens the existence of the state of Israel.”
“This is also why UNRWA is often portrayed as a politically controversial institution, even long before Israel’s accusations about the October 7 attacks.” “Most of the Israeli political class rejects UNRWA because of its symbolic value for Palestine,” continued Forti. “They are of the view that any entity that stands to defend the Palestinians’ right of return directly threatens the existence of the state of Israel.”
Problems started to emerge next month
UNRWA, which has no strategic emergency reserves, is expected to feel the impact of the funding shortfall at the end of March.
“There will be some kind of hierarchy as to how drastic the collapse will be [UNRWA] in terms of consequences,” said Jorgen Jensehaugen, a senior researcher at the Norwegian Institute for Peace Research in Oslo. “First it was Gaza, then Lebanon and Syria, then the West Bank, and then Jordan.”
“There will be a kind of hierarchy as to how drastic the collapse (of UNRWA) will be in terms of consequences,” said Senior Researcher at the Peace Research Institute in Oslo, Norway. “First it was Gaza, then Lebanon and Syria, then the West Bank, and then Jordan.”
“Lebanon will feel the impact because it is on the verge of an economic abyss,” stressed Head of the Middle East and North Africa Program for the International Crisis Group, Joost Hiltermann. “The Lebanese state does not have the capacity to handle the additional burden of caring for Palestinian refugees. This also applies to Syria. In comparison, Jordan has the capacity to accommodate.”
As an illustration, in Lebanon itself the Palestinian refugee camp infrastructure has been around for a long time, but there tends to be little that can be controlled by the Lebanese government. So, according to Jensehaugen, the place would just collapse. “So, no schools, no health services, no social benefits for those in need. Coupled with the context of a collapsing country, this will have an impact beyond the camps, because people will have to go elsewhere to get anything, ” he explained to DW. “That will put a lot of pressure on local communities. Apart from demonstrations or riots in some camps, you might also see more people joining criminal gangs or military organizations just for the sake of a paycheck.”
Institution for stability
Hiltermann believes that the economic impact will be different in each country. “However, given the highly unstable environment for refugees there, the political impact is likely to be worst in the West Bank. There is a reason why the Israeli military wants UNRWA to remain fully funded,” he warned.
When Jensehaugen and his fellow researchers interviewed donor countries for a 2022 study on UNRWA’s funding struggles, they found that the agency had long experienced a deficit. They reveal that the “so-called stability argument” has become the main driver for donor contributions.
“In other words, funding UNRWA is a cheap way to maintain stability in the region, because it means hundreds of thousands of children get an education,” said Jensehaugen, adding that poverty and lack of education have been proven to be drivers of extremism and crime.
“So there is a huge paradox at the moment with limited funding for UNRWA,” continued Jensehaugen. “The potential for instability is clear and donors already know that it could get worse.”
For example, observers say that European governments are well aware that if UNRWA fails, they could see waves of irregular migration from Lebanon and Jordan.
“UNRWA’s bankruptcy would be dangerous for local stability in every location,” said Hiltermann. “However, if this is related to the ongoing war in Gaza, or even the mass expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt, which would trigger an escalation of attacks by Israel’s enemies in the region, then it can be said that all bets will fail.”
(mh/rs)
(ita/ita)
2024-02-21 06:53:29
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