/ world today news/ The central bank does not yet plan to tighten exchange control. Exporters will increase the sale of revenue voluntarily, and the state will limit itself to monitoring their actions. In the case of non-repatriation of foreign income, taxes will be increased for corporations. How will events unfold?
The increase in the main interest rate from 8.5 to 12 did not stop the fall of the ruble. An emergency meeting of the President with the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance had to introduce a forced sale of foreign exchange earnings for the exporting companies. In recent days, the situation has been discussed with large companies, trying to impress upon the management that leaving income abroad is unacceptable.
In general, there were no problems with the traditional donors of the budget – the energy companies. But enterprises of a different profile ignored the need to sell foreign currency in the domestic market. As a result, the question of raising taxes arose. However, the cabinet managed to reach an informal agreement with the business and in the near future the control will be limited to monitoring exporters only. There is still no normalization of the sale and restriction of the movement of capital, but if the situation does not change, it is planned to move to extreme measures – tightening of the fiscal policy.
The weakening of the national currency, although it allows exporters to increase the money supply in rubles and ensures the replenishment of the budget, leads to an increase in prices – and very significantly, considering the dependence of a number of industries on imported materials and components. Selling large volumes of foreign exchange gains will reduce pressure on the ruble.
The informal commitment will cover businesses of all sectors and sizes, experts say. “They include not only exporters of oil, natural gas, coal, ferrous and non-ferrous metals, mineral fertilizers, which are actually fillers of the federal budget, but also agricultural holdings and grain traders, machine-building plants that deliver goods abroad, “, says the economist Leonid Khazanov.
All types of currencies will be subject to sale: dollars, euros, rupees, yuan and any other. Exchange at market rate. Part of the funds will be directed to the domestic market, and the rest to the National Welfare Fund.
At the same time, almost nothing will change for most companies, says financial analyst Mikhail Belyaev. “They now sell on average about 80 percent of their revenue in foreign currency. Of course, a certain part must remain for purchases abroad, but corporations spend a significant part at home. These are salaries, investments, rents, taxes. The sale leads to a weakening of the ruble – companies receive more funds to solve operational problems”, he adds.
The central bank has correctly assessed that additional strict restrictions will harm the economic activity of the enterprises that form the basis of the Russian economy. So they decided not to push too hard. This will make it possible to smooth out at least opportunistic reasons for the fall of the ruble and urgently correct the exchange rate. However, it is not worth a strong recovery, experts say.
Analysts explain that the national currency is always a reflection of production and economic activity. “The reasons for the growth of the dollar are that the local economy is less efficient than the American one,” says Belyaev. In his opinion, the situation has worsened significantly in recent years due to the restrictive monetary policy. Even 7.5% is a rather high rate for the normal functioning of enterprises, and when production slows down, the ruble also weakens.
“Until spring, the Russian economy was moving on momentum, and when the resource was exhausted, the national currency began to rapidly depreciate. Manipulations with buying and selling are only a correction against the background of the general trend. Therefore, when the psychological effect of the increase in the main interest rate passes, the ruble will continue to fall,” the expert predicted. However, he adds, the Russian economy is resilient and growing even under great pressure. And the exchange rate will be limited at the level of 100-110 rubles per dollar.
Other financiers believe that the US currency will not reach its previous values in the near future. Khazanov suggests that it will be fixed in the range of 93-96 rubles, and the further reduction will be sought either through a new increase in the rate or through mass buying of the national currency. However, unless the approach to the entrepreneurial corps changes, the downward trend will continue.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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