Russia’s Air Superiority in Avdiivka Could Have Devastating Consequences for Ukraine, Say War Experts
In a recent development in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, war experts have warned that Russia’s establishment of air superiority over Avdiivka could have devastating consequences for Ukraine if it continues. This marks the first time Russia has been able to control the skies in a front-line area since the start of the war, and it raises concerns about Ukraine’s air defense limitations.
As Russia’s ground forces pushed to capture Avdiivka, its air force appeared to gain control of the skies, allowing for critical close-air-support missions. This temporary and localized air superiority could be a game-changer for Russia, as it opens up new possibilities for offensive operations. If Russia continues to maintain air superiority or expands it, the consequences for Ukraine could be devastating.
On Saturday, Russia claimed victory in Avdiivka, a Ukrainian town northeast of occupied Donetsk. This victory is seen as a significant achievement for Russian President Vladimir Putin, especially with the upcoming Russian presidential elections next month. However, it came at a high cost for Moscow, with severe losses of troops and equipment.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington DC-based think tank, stated that this was likely the first time Russian forces had achieved air superiority in Ukraine. The use of combined arms tactics, with air forces supporting ground troops, played a crucial role in degrading Ukrainian defenses and allowing Russia to capture Avdiivka.
Footage from Avdiivka shows the town reduced to rubble, with only a few hundred civilians remaining. They are forced to hide in basements and quickly gather essential supplies during lulls in the fighting. The destruction caused by the conflict is evident, and the situation is dire for both civilians and Ukrainian forces.
While Russia’s ground forces have suffered substantial losses, its air force remains relatively intact. However, Ukraine’s air defenses have largely prevented Russia from achieving air superiority throughout the war. The question now is whether Ukraine can continue to deny Russia unfettered air superiority, especially considering the delays in Western security aid. Ukraine’s air defenses and missile stockpiles are running critically low, forcing them to ration and make tough choices on which areas to prioritize and protect.
The concern is that if Ukraine cannot maintain air superiority, Russia could conduct devastating bombing campaigns, targeting Ukrainian cities and forces on the ground. Even temporary and localized air superiority would allow Russian forces to pursue operational advances along the frontline more aggressively. Widespread interrupted air superiority would enable Russia to conduct routine large-scale aviation operations and cause devastating damage beyond the frontline.
The capture of Avdiivka is seen as strategically significant for Russia, as it provides a logistics and operational maneuver hub in the Donbas area. This allows Russia to conduct further operations in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. However, it remains to be seen if Russia can capitalize on its capture and sustain its operations under the current conditions.
The loss of Avdiivka has both operational and informational implications. While it may not significantly change Ukraine’s defensive capabilities, it fuels Russian propaganda against Ukraine and provides fodder for Putin’s upcoming presidential election. The situation in Ukraine is complex, with dwindling supplies and congressional inaction on aid exacerbating the challenges faced by Ukrainian forces.
As the conflict continues, the international community must closely monitor the situation and provide support to Ukraine to prevent further devastating consequences. The establishment of air superiority by Russia in Avdiivka is a concerning development that could have far-reaching implications for the region.