The Russians Got Cocky After Avdiivka, And Sent 70-Year-Old T-55 Tanks To Attack Robotyne. It Ended Badly.
After months of defending against a Russian force that was ten times its size, the Ukrainian army’s 110th Mechanized Brigade was forced to retreat from Avdiivka, a city in eastern Ukraine. Avdiivka was the first significant Ukrainian city to fall to the Russians in almost a year, and the reason behind this is no secret. Russia-aligned Republicans in the U.S. Congress had been blocking further aid to Ukraine since October, leaving the 110th Brigade without the ammunition that the Americans once provided.
Sensing weakness as the 110th Brigade retreated, the Russian army launched attacks in multiple sectors along the 600-mile front of Russia’s two-year war on Ukraine. However, not all Ukrainian brigades were as exhausted, outnumbered, and deprived of ammunition as the 110th Brigade. Ukrainian forces managed to hold the line and inflict heavy casualties on the overconfident Russian brigades and regiments.
One particular unit from the 42nd Motor Rifle Division attempted to assault Ukrainian positions in Robotyne, a settlement that had been liberated by the Ukrainians the previous summer. This unit, equipped with un-upgraded, 70-year-old T-55 tanks, faced a devastating defeat as it crossed a mile of flat terrain separating Russian lines from Ukrainian positions.
The 65th Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian army fought back fiercely against the Russian assault group, which consisted of T-55 tanks, MT-LB armored tractors, and BMP fighting vehicles. They utilized cluster shells, anti-tank missiles, and explosive drones to repel the attack and seek revenge for the fallen soldiers of the 110th Brigade who had defended Avdiivka.
The battle resulted in significant losses for the Russians. Open-source analyst Andrew Perpetua reported that along the entire front line, there were 28 damaged, destroyed, or abandoned Russian tanks and fighting vehicles, compared to only six Ukrainian ones. The failed attack on Robotyne accounted for most of the Russian losses, with 18 vehicles and 70 personnel reportedly lost.
Despite initially overpowering Avdiivka’s garrison with a force of 40,000 troops, the Russians failed to press their firepower advantage. The Kremlin had to reinforce the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies around Avdiivka after suffering heavy casualties. The Russian force in Ukraine currently numbers 470,000 troops, with analysts estimating that they have enough resources to continue fighting until 2025.
However, the Russian army may struggle to sustain the same level of effort it took to capture Avdiivka for another two years. As the field armies reset and the Kremlin rebuilds its offensive combat power, their winter offensive is expected to slow down. Nevertheless, it is unlikely to come to a complete halt. The Ukrainian forces, on the other hand, face a dire shortage of ammunition due to the continued blocking of U.S. aid by Russia-aligned Republicans. As long as Ukrainian brigades are forced to ration their ammunition, Russian regiments will maintain the momentum with their ample supply from Iran and North Korea.