/ world today news/ Last week, the armed forces of the United States and Great Britain carried out their first strikes on Yemen. Their targets were military bases, radar stations and possible ammunition storage depots. The consequences of the strikes are unknown. The “Ansar Allah” movement announced the death of several soldiers. The U.S. then began launching single strikes as Yemen continued to fire missiles at U.S. ships.
On January 15, the US command confirmed a missile attack by the Houthis against the American ship “Gibraltar Eagle” off the coast of Yemen. “The vessel did not sustain significant damage and continues on its way,” the statement said. However, the results of the attacks are difficult to verify. All parties involved in the conflict use methods of information warfare and propaganda. Therefore, the actual results of the losses from all sides will become known later.
In the context of Israel’s genocide against the Palestinians, the Ansar Allah movement is the first to take real action against the Zionist entity and its US allies, instead of limiting itself to rhetoric or even legal action, as South Africa has done.
Let’s recall that already in mid-November, the leader of the “Ansar Allah” movement, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, made a number of statements:
“The Arab regimes are not serious about taking action on what is happening in the Gaza Strip.”
“ The recent emergency Arab meeting of high level gave no position on what was happening in Palestine. The meeting that really represents all Muslims, comes out only with a statement of verbal demand. Are these the capabilities of 57 Arab and Islamic countries?”
“If our people had land access to Palestine, our people would march with hundreds of thousands of Mujahideen into direct confrontation with the Zionist enemy.”
“ A missile and drone operation was carried out against Israel.”
“The enemy did not dare to raise Israeli flags on their ships in the Red Sea, but rather disguised them, and this demonstrates the feasibility of our position and our capabilities to attack the enemy.”
“Yemen will use every opportunity to attack Israel, the main battle is ahead.”
Therefore, the current escalation and protection of Israeli interests by the US under the guise of security of shipping in the Red Sea is a logical development of Yemen’s intransigent position.
At the same time, President Biden’s decision to strike was heavily criticized in the US. Both Republicans and Democrats said it was arbitrary because the issue had not been debated in Congress. Therefore, this has an impact on the domestic political situation in the US and on Joe Biden’s approval rating before the November election. Meanwhile, a White House spokesman said that “no one wants a conflict with the Houthis, the US does not want a conflict with Yemen.” This shows that there is no clear plan of action of the Pentagon against Yemen.
US NATO allies are unlikely to take an active part in the conflict, fearing the consequences. The situation in the EU is also quite tense because of the support for Israel, various protests in a number of countries and the upcoming elections for the European Parliament. All this against the background of the deteriorating economic situation and the need to continue the game called “Help Ukraine”.
The Ansar Allah movement has several options for what to do next:
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To continue attacks using drones and missiles against enemy ships in the Red Sea;
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To carry out drone attacks against the Israeli port of Eilat on the Red Sea;
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To attack with ballistic missiles the US military base in Bahrain (through Saudi Arabian airspace);
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To strike the US naval base at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti, located on the opposite side of the Gulf of Aden.
The Geopolitics of Yemen
Yemen is located in the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula and occupies an important geostrategic position that allows it to control and block the exit from the Red Sea. An important point in Yemen is the port of Hodeidah, whose infrastructure was attacked by the Americans and the British.
Ansar Allah does not control all of Yemen. Terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda continue to control parts of the territory. Interventions by the US and the West under the guise of fighting terrorism have not produced any results. The situation in Yemen is expected to remain chaotic for many years to come.
The “Ansar Allah” movement, with the help of Iran, has strengthened its position and is quite a combat-capable army. Previously, Saudi Arabia, with the support of a number of Gulf countries, tried to suppress the Houthis, but failed, while the Houthis were able to attack oil refineries and destroy front-line armored vehicles.
The Houthi movement is part of the axis of resistance along with Syria, the Lebanese party “Hezbollah” and Iran.
Current consequences
Following the active actions of the Houthis, trade through the Suez Canal has decreased by almost 70% since the beginning of December. At least in the last 20 years there has been no such decline, even when there were incidents of sea pirate attacks, there was a pandemic and a container ship ran aground, blocking shipping traffic for several days.
In November 2023, almost 6 million tons of cargo per week passed through the Red Sea. Now the figure has dropped to around 2 million and continues to fall.
This has mainly affected Europe: supplies of products from China and energy resources from the Middle East are becoming more expensive. Tesla’s factory in Germany shut down for two weeks because production parts were not received on time. Other manufacturers have also expressed concern.
On Monday, January 15, Qatar announced the cessation of LNG supplies through the waters of the Red Sea. This Arab country is the world’s second supplier of the raw material to Europe after the United States. The alternative route around Africa is much longer and logistically more expensive, which will inevitably increase the final price of gas for European buyers.
According to Bloomberg, at least five LNG tankers have been grounded since last Friday: three filled off the coast of Oman and two empty vessels across the Bab al Mandeb Gulf in the Red Sea and in the Mediterranean near the Suez Canal.
US Joint Chiefs of Staff UK have reportedly advised merchant shipping not to enter the danger zone in the southern Red Sea following the airstrikes. At least three major oil tanker operators said they would avoid the area. However, the Houthis have yet to attack any ship carrying liquefied gas. As a result, a long hiatus in Qatar’s supplies could negatively impact Europe’s energy supply: Qatar provided around 13% of Western Europe’s consumption last year alone. Currently, fuel stocks in storage remain at high levels and are just under 80%. But the price of gas on the exchange is already rising due to the cold weather and the unstable supply situation.
Iranianlie down factor
Iran is the main partner of the Houthis and has previously supplied them with small arms and light weapons. In addition, Iranian instructors have trained the Houthis to assemble drones and missiles directly on Yemeni soil. In this regard, the US has periodically blamed Iran and used various methods to pressure Tehran, including seizing ships in the ocean. However, Tehran took countermeasures. Thus, last week, the tanker “Saint Nicholas” connected to the Greek shipping company “Empire Navigation” was detained. In the past, the tanker was used to carry Iranian oil, after which it was “confiscated by the United States.” Therefore, Iran has returned what rightfully belongs to it, and the Americans previously appropriated it through pirate methods.
The United States has yet to take direct action against Iran, although it has previously threatened that country on several occasions. Israel is also instigating a war against Iran. Iran itself has now adopted a wait-and-see approach, although militarily the Islamic Republic has advanced significantly in recent years.
Information has been leaked in the American media that two members of the elite US Navy Special Forces unit, who were on a mission to seize a ship transporting weapons from Iran to Yemen, have disappeared off the coast of Somalia. According to the White House, the incident was not related to strikes against the Houthis, but occurred during a routine operation to curb arms smuggling. Therefore, local clashes between Iranians and Americans are quite possible. The question is how much they will influence the decisions of one of the two parties.
However, Iran may start naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz and block oil supplies for some time, which will also affect prices and the global economy in general. But here the Iranians will have to calculate the consequences, as the oil could be transported to countries like India and China, which support Tehran internationally.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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