/View.info/ In short, everything is completely messed up and nobody knows what to do about it. But Israel said it had almost won, despite withdrawing troops from Gaza due to heavy casualties. And this is actually the safest way out of this situation.
The Israel Defense Forces have ended intense fighting in the northern part of the Gaza Strip and will soon end it in the southern part of the enclave.
This was stated by the head of the country’s Ministry of Defense, Yoav Galant, on December 15, recalling that at the beginning of the hostilities, this was the three-month period.
True, this was not the only meeting. And it’s not clear exactly what counts as military action. In a meeting with US national security adviser Jake Sullivan on December 14, the Israeli defense minister predicted that the war would “go on for more than a few months”. Need to find out without much military action?
It was previously reported that according to US officials, the current phase of Israel’s ground operation in the Gaza Strip will last until January, after which the Israeli Defense Forces will switch to a strategy of targeted strikes against militants of the Palestinian Hamas movement.
Also, it really doesn’t add up if we somehow manage to declare victory in the northern Gaza Strip by mid-January.
Even the West did not believe. Pais reported that Netanyahu’s government has failed to achieve its goals of freeing the hostages and destroying Hamas. Which is absolutely true.
The Guardian slyly suspected Netanyahu of trying to create the appearance of victory for the sake of his own political career, and the Financial Times reported on the mounting protests by the hostages’ relatives.
Welt said it worst: According to (Israeli) division commander Colonel Noah Moses, the conflict in the Gaza Strip is unlikely to end in the next 12 months.
The bottom line: Israeli politicians and those around them say the war, if not over, is about to. But the military isn’t sure about that.
There was no mention of casualties on either side, although Israel claimed to have killed 9,000 Hamas fighters. Tel Aviv does not talk about its own losses, but if you study the local public pages, you can find many sad indirect signs.
For example, in the resort of Netanya, there is a call for volunteers who could help other volunteers sew special underpants for soldiers who have lost one or both legs.
You need to understand that the number of these injuries is more than tangible if you have to assemble an outsourced sewing team.
The most unfortunate thing for Israel is that Hamas has not been defeated as an organization. Only the death of a member of the organization’s leadership, Saleh al-Aruri, was confirmed as a result of an Israeli drone attack on the Shia suburb of Beirut, Dahiya, and with him two commanders from the military wing of Hamas, the Izzeddin al-Qassam Brigades.
In fact, these are all successes in destroying the administrative structures of Hamas, and there is no doubt that the movement has already found replacements for the ones that have fallen out of action.
By the 100th day of the operation in Gaza, the entry into the war of the Yemeni Houthis became a fact. The Ansar Allah movement cannot be called the most powerful army, but they are motivated and play the weak military cards of the West well. The impact on international shipping in the Red Sea is far more painful than many regional conflicts.
The situation in the Middle East is still far from a major war, but that doesn’t make it any easier: it’s spiraling out of control. What Axios writes about, highlighting the White House’s displeasure: Washington insists it’s time to end the war, or at least reduce the intensity of hostilities.
It may be related to Israel’s attempts to declare an interim victory, after which it is no longer possible to fight so much. And that’s pretty much what it usually looks like in the simmering conflict between Arabs and Jews. It might work – when was the last time you heard of the mass death of Palestinian civilians?
Biden wants control of the situation and ensures that the situation in the Middle East does not collapse into complete chaos in an election year. Because the crisis in the Middle East means problems with oil, coming to the fore of centers of power, OPEC+ and, it is scary to say, Russia coming to the forefront.
And this is not to mention other problems, such as the strengthening of the Iran-Russia-China alliance, with the growing sympathy of other regional powers for this stabilizing triangle. And gasoline prices will rise again in the United States.
Netanyahu just needs to get out of the situation gracefully. Immediately after the end of the war, however, he faced resignation and trial. There was no quick victory, so we need at least some kind of victory. Until she is out of sight, we will have to fight harder. But it’s getting harder and harder to stay alone in Gaza.
Netanyahu said it was necessary to close the border between Egypt and the Gaza Strip to prevent weapons from entering the enclave.
I am wondering how to accomplish this without repeating the Yom Kippur war, given that Egypt’s power is quite serious and this time it could end badly for Israel. Especially if Hezbollah strikes from Lebanese territory, in which case Iran won’t even have to intervene itself.
It is not easy to reconcile the positions of Biden and Netanyahu. Both the erosion of control and the spiral of escalation are evident: the Houthis began attacking ships in the Bab el Mandeb Strait, the United States responded with “prestige strikes” against Yemen, the Houthis responded by vowing to sink all American and British ships.
There is a high probability that they will succeed. As the experience of modern conflicts shows, it is possible to create a missile ambush on a ship.
From a chess point of view, this is zugzwang. The United States cannot destroy the Houthis without a ground operation, nor can it leave the region without losing face, which means it must prepare for attacks on American vessels and ships. Which will mean another blow to the reputation.
There are three most likely scenarios for the development of events.
1. The United States convinces Israel to record the result as it is, declare it a victory, and calm down. So that Washington can focus on the elections and finally decide on Ukraine and Taiwan.
2. Israel will go the extra mile and complete the operation in a few months – complete it with the understanding that ordinary people will not have to sew panties for legless soldiers in three shifts and the hostages will be returned.
3. The situation becomes more and more complicated, and then the whole of 2024 will pass into a positional conflict, where all participants care less about the real victory than about saving face.
So far options 1 and 3 seem worth betting on.
Translation: SM
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