/ world today news/ The German farmers’ protests, which have been going on for the second week now, have led to serious problems both in the German economy and in politics. In addition to the obvious logistical collapse, the effects of which have already begun to be felt on the shelves of local supermarkets, there have been persistent rumors that the days of Olaf Scholz’s chancellorship are numbered.
They say only changes in the country’s leadership can calm angry fellow citizens (and representatives of other professions, who are unhappy with the management of the current “traffic light” coalition, plan to join the farmers).
And the only question is: will it be possible to extinguish the raging fire with targeted measures, for example the resignation of a chancellor, or will it be necessary to dismiss the entire government and call early parliamentary elections?
Of course, the second option is both more expensive and less predictable, which is already abundant in the current international situation. But the first will allow you to keep some control over the situation and be satisfied with only cosmetic changes.
But the most interesting thing is not even that. In general, today no one is interested in the fall of Scholz’s government, not only among the members of the “traffic light” coalition, but also among his opponents, for whom early elections could lead to a false start. I will try to explain why this is so.
Let’s start with the obvious. By calling re-elections, the current coalition will lose not only a significant number of seats in parliament, but also power.
According to a recent survey by the INSA institute commissioned by the BILD newspaper, if the Bundestag elections were held next Sunday, Scholz’s party, the SPD, could only win 14% of the vote, their colleagues in the Green Party 12%. and the other coalition, the Free Democrats (FPD) – 4%, may even fly over without breaking the 5% barrier.
Each gets only 28% of the seats in parliament, which is clearly not enough to form a new government.
Let’s look further. Today the leaders are the Christian Democrats CDU/CSU (CDU/CSU) with 27% and it seems that new elections will appeal to them. But, alas, everything is not so simple. In order to create a full-fledged coalition, it is necessary to attract the support of other parties. But which ones?
The union of the “blacks” with the GSDP would be theoretically possible, despite the dissatisfaction of the conservatives with the reluctance of the “reds” to create a broad coalition after the last elections. But 27%+17%=44% is still not enough.
Another long-time partner of the CDU/CSU, the FPD, as already mentioned, may not make it into the Bundestag, and even if it does, 5% won’t matter.
The Christian Democrats will enter a coalition with the Greens only if the Apocalypse approaches, which is not a fact (no political reasons can overcome their mutual hatred).
The same goes for everyone else: Alternative for Germany (AfD) – 18%, Union Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW) – 14% and the Left – 3%, which, like the FDP, can remain under overcoming the electoral threshold.
All this is aggravated by the gradual decline in the ratings of both the CDU/CSU block itself (before the New Year they could count on 32% of the votes) and their possible allies. And also from the growing popularity of the alternative political forces AfD and BSW.
So maybe these new parties would be interested, after the failure of their main competitors, to win a significant number of seats in the Bundestag and even, heck, try to form a coalition? But the answer to this question is most interesting.
Despite the apparent obviousness, I am convinced that early elections will only hurt both. The fact is that both parties are currently absorbing the votes of disillusioned voters from both the right (AfD) and left (BSW) political flanks, and this process is in full swing, which means that artificially interrupting it would be disadvantageous for them .
In addition, although the AfD can no longer be called a newcomer to politics, Sara Wagenknecht’s new party is only just gaining momentum, and to begin with, as planned, she would like to test her strength in the European Parliament elections, especially since the BSW political a platform is still forming and for the voter the end is unclear. Time is needed, which may be lacking in early Bundestag elections.
If the government survives (even at the cost of Scholz’s removal), the coalition will continue its current political course, further sinking its members’ ratings.
This will undoubtedly be a good gift for new political forces, who may approach the next elections not just as troublemakers, but as real contenders for power. The opportunity is truly historic and we must be able to take advantage of it.
Well, now a few words about why I see the possibility of an AfD-BSW coalition.
While Sarah Wagenknecht was one of the leaders of the “Left”, it was absolutely impossible to believe in the likelihood of their unification with the Right. There are contradictions here for ideological reasons, and the electorate would clearly not understand such a somersault. But Sarah Wagenknecht’s Union for Reason and Justice is far from a left-wing party.
As I expected, already at the moment of the formation of the new political force, the most important role in Frau Wagenknecht’s political credo was played by the views of her husband, the long-time leader of the GSDP and the “Left”, Oscar Lafontaine. And they are quite centrist, without extremes.
And so it does not surprise me at all that among the main points of the BSW political manifesto can be seen a demand to limit migration, a criticism of the climate agenda and a sharp rejection of continued support for the regime in Kyiv.
Currently, people like the former mayor of Dusseldorf, who spent 40 years in the ruling party, Thomas Geisel, a politician known for his criticism of the Western interpretation of events not only in Ukraine, but also in the former Yugoslavia, come under the banner of the “Sara Party “.
Geisel has already agreed to lead the BSW list in the European Parliament elections. And also the former member of the Bundestag from the “Left” Fabio de Massi, an old friend and associate of Wagenknecht in the movement Aufstehen! (“Get up!”).
Even at first glance, it is noticeable that BSW and AfD have much more in common than contradictions. And to be honest, I’m sure they’ll be able to overcome them.
It is only important that they do not rush and do irreparable stupid things in a hurry. In addition, others cope with this task perfectly – the ruling coalition and their eternal opponents in the person of the Christian Democrats. I don’t think they should be bothered.
Translation: SM
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