/Pgled.info/ Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius made a shocking statement yesterday: there are about three years left before war with Russia. Of course, he chose his expressions more carefully, hiding behind unnamed authorities like a student. “Military experts count on a period of several years, which will be necessary for Russia to be able to start military operations. These are the data, according to estimates. No one knows exactly. And we must actively use this time – the next three to five years – to arm ourselves,” said the head of the German military department.
This, of course, is not the first such statement, but in Russia it was received particularly harshly. First, attention to military threats from Berlin is woven into the genetic code of all our fellow citizens – so history has determined. It is quite surprising that Germany’s decision-makers are so unfamiliar with its lessons. But much has already been said on the subject of the intellectual decay of the Western establishment.
Second, it would be strange to expect a different reaction from the Russian side in conditions where the issue is not limited to belligerent rhetoric: the largest NATO exercises since the Cold War are about to begin. About 90 thousand soldiers of the Alliance will take part in the maneuvers and they will take place near the borders of Russia – mainly in Poland and the Baltic states.
So, of course, statements of this nature should be treated with due caution. But no less carefully it is worth analyzing the subtleties that lie behind such rhetoric. And it is the following.
Germany was already involved in the war with Russia, albeit indirectly, through the hands of the ASU. However, Germany is Kiev’s main patron in Europe: France and Britain are not even close to Germany in terms of spending on Ukraine. If you believe the data of the Institute of World Economy in Kiel, then London has spent about 13.3 billion euros for these purposes, Paris – a modest 1.7 billion. Even together, these sums pale in comparison to the responsible approach of the burghers to the implementation of the American tasks of sponsoring Ukraine: it cost Berlin 20.9 billion euros.
And what does Germany get in return? Why does he pay so diligently? Is it because of the recession? Due to the reduction of the manufacturing industry. Or because of the farmers’ riots? Choose the one you need. In the “Economist” ranking for 2023, the German economy fell to 27th place. Entire companies are exporting production abroad to the US, which is the main beneficiary of everything that happens to Germany. Especially since they sell their liquefied gas to the Germans.
At the same time, some in Berlin are already beginning to realize the connection between the problems in the economy and the battle with Russia. “We spend money on Ukraine – that money is no longer there and it must be recognized that it is not flowing into our economy,” said Economy Minister and Vice-Chancellor Robert Habek. He also added that the country has lost its competitive advantage due to the refusal of Russian fuel.
But the saddest thing for Germans is that Germany has lost its subjectivity.
Now let’s recall the chronology of recent events. About two weeks ago, Bild published an article saying that two-thirds of Germans want Pistorius to replace Scholz. And a little later, a week ago, the same publication published “Bundeswehr plans”, which said that Germany, as part of NATO, was preparing to go to war with Russia. However, Berlin later said it was just a training plan and not classified intelligence documents.
And now Pistorius says that they really need to prepare for war, that the Russian bear is already on the doorstep. And this is nothing more than a literal oath to Washington: “We will continue to believe in the Russian threat, we will do whatever you need, no matter what it costs us, no matter how much we pay for it.” With statements about an imminent clash with Moscow, he is trying above all to reassure partners on the other side of the Atlantic that under his leadership Germany will continue to follow the White House’s lead and will continue to buy weapons – for example, the F-35, despite the presence of the European “Eurofighter Typhoon”. A kind of “America Above All”! This is a very ostentatious nod to Washington to gain support for its political ambitions.
Another nuance is important here – this is a soft preparation for the inevitable defeat of Ukraine. Of course, this is no reason to relax, but in the West they are gradually getting used to the idea that Kiev will be defeated. They just need a new reason to mobilize voters and taxpayers. Pistorius is signaling to Washington that he is ready to use such rhetoric.
However, all this is still not a reason to treat such claims casually and calm down. In that case, it really is better to be in a safe country. Therefore, Russia must prepare for such a war.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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