US Receives New Intelligence on Russian Space-Based Nuclear Capability: Sources
The recent revelation of new intelligence on Russian military capabilities regarding their efforts to deploy a nuclear anti-satellite system in space has sparked concerns among US officials. Multiple sources familiar with the intelligence have confirmed that it has been briefed to Congress and key US allies. Some lawmakers are advocating for the declassification of this information to make it public, highlighting the seriousness of the situation. However, senior members of Congress who were briefed on the matter have emphasized that it does not pose an immediate threat to the US or its interests.
According to three US officials familiar with the intelligence, the system is still under development and has not yet been launched into orbit. The exact progress of the technology remains unclear. However, it has been clarified that the threat does not involve a weapon that would be used to attack humans.
The nature of the intelligence, whether it refers to a nuclear-powered, anti-satellite capability or a nuclear-armed capability, has not been explicitly stated. Nevertheless, experts warn that an anti-satellite weapon placed in orbit around Earth could pose a significant danger to US nuclear command and control satellites. Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, asserts that these satellites are “essential” for maintaining constant and seamless control over the US nuclear arsenal.
While other countries have tested anti-satellite weapons in the past, the deployment of such a weapon by Russia would be considered an escalation. The US has made it clear that it would react strongly to any attack on its nuclear command and control satellites. Even conventional weapons on an orbital anti-satellite system could potentially pose a significant threat.
Initial reports from ABC News indicate that the intelligence specifically relates to a Russian space-based nuclear capability. This information was brought into the spotlight by Republican Representative Mike Turner of Ohio, who issued a cryptic statement regarding a serious national security threat. This statement triggered a flurry of activity on Capitol Hill, with lawmakers rushing to the House basement to learn more about the intelligence. However, some lawmakers expressed disappointment upon seeing the intelligence, stating that it did not warrant the level of alarm raised by Turner.
In an attempt to calm the situation, Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson assured reporters that there was no cause for alarm and revealed that he had been aware of the intelligence since January. Meanwhile, Rep. Jim Himes, the committee’s top Democrat, emphasized that while the intelligence is significant, it should not spark panic.
The National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, expressed surprise at Turner’s decision to make the intelligence public, as briefings were already scheduled with top Republican and Democratic leaders. Sullivan stressed the importance of handling the matter alongside intelligence and defense professionals.
Turner has called on the Biden administration to declassify all information related to the threat so that Congress, the administration, and US allies can openly discuss the necessary actions to respond. However, the Republican and Democratic leaders of the Senate Intelligence Committee have suggested that declassifying the information may compromise sensitive sources and methods.
This revelation comes at a time when a $60 billion aid package to support Ukraine in its conflict with Russia has stalled in the House. Former President Donald Trump’s public support for GOP members opposing the aid package has further complicated matters. Additionally, Trump’s recent statements indicating that he would encourage Russia to act as it pleases towards NATO allies who fail to meet defense spending goals have contributed to tensions.
While further details on the intelligence and Russian capabilities remain undisclosed, a 2022 report by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) highlights Russia’s pursuit of counterspace systems aimed at neutralizing US military and commercial space systems. The report states that Russia aims to target enemy satellites through ground, air, cyber, and space attacks. In 2020, Russia conducted a test of a space-based anti-satellite weapon with sophisticated orbital capabilities that could potentially service and inspect friendly satellites while also having the ability to attack enemy satellites.
It is worth noting that launching a nuclear-armed anti-satellite system into space would violate the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which explicitly prohibits the presence of any objects carrying nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction in orbit.
As the situation continues to unfold, it is essential to closely monitor developments and assess the potential implications for global security and the US’s strategic interests.
