JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – Kompas Research and Development exit poll analysis shows that more than half of Joko Widodo (Jokowi) voters in the 2019 presidential election (Pilpres) chose the presidential candidate and vice presidential candidate (capres-cawapres) number 2, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, in the presidential election 2024.
“The results of the post-voting survey this time show that 53.5 percent of Jokowi voters this time gave their choice to Prabowo-Gibran,” according to Kompas R&D senior researcher, Bestian Nainggolan, Thursday (15/2/2024), quoted from Kompas.id.
According to Bestian, the large proportion of support for Prabowo-Gibran cannot be separated from the strengthening of the choices of voters who were previously Jokowi voters.
In fact, in the Kompas R&D survey for the period 29 November-4 December 2024, Jokowi voters’ support for Prabowo-Gibran was still 40.7 percent.
“This means that within two months, Prabowo-Gibran will be able to increase their support to half of their original electability proportion,” said Bestian.
Also read: Kompas Research and Development Exit Poll Analysis: Prabowo-Gibran Wins in All Island Clusters
He said that this increase could not be separated from the migration of voters’ political choices, especially those who previously did not have a choice of presidential candidate or were still undecided about their previous choice.
On the other hand, Prabowo-Gibran also received a surplus of support from voters who voted for Prabowo in the 2019 presidential election.
Kompas/RFC Research and Development Migration Supports Jokowi Voters in the 2019 Election to the 2024 Presidential-Vice Presidential Candidates
The results of the exit poll survey show that at least 57.1 percent of Prabowo-Sandiaga Uno voters choose Prabowo-Gibran, an increase from 43.8 percent in the survey results in December 2023.
“Thus, apart from the Jokowi factor, the support for Prabowo-Gibran’s superiority also occurred due to the strengthening of support from Prabowo voters in the last election,” said Bestian.
The following are the results of the Kompas Research and Development exit poll regarding the migration of voters in the 2019 elections to the choice of presidential and vice presidential candidates in 2024:
Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar
- Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin voters: 15.6 percent
- Prabowo-Sandiaga Unno voters: 35.8 percent
- Do not have the right to vote/not vote in the 2019 Presidential Election: 18.3 percent
Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming
- Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin voters: 53.5 percent percent
- Prabowo-Sandiaga Unno voters: 57.1 percent percent
- Do not have the right to vote/not vote in the 2019 Presidential Election: 52.1 percent
Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD
- Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin voters: 23.2 percent
- Prabowo-Sandiaga Unno voters: 2.0 percent
- Not having the right to vote/not voting in the 2019 Presidential Election: 8.4 percent
This exit poll was carried out by Kompas Research and Development with face-to-face interviews with responses after the 2024 election voting on Wednesday (14/2/2024).
A total of 7,863 respondents were selected randomly using a multilevel proportional systematic sampling method in 38 provinces.
The margin of error from this exit poll is approximately 1.11 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. The survey was fully funded by Kompas Daily.
Also read: Prabowo: The Campaign is Over, Forget the Harsh Words, Carry the Highness Deeply
This news is quoted from Kompas.id, https://www.kompas.id/baca/riset/2024/02/15/faktor-jokowi-penentu-kemenangan
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2024-02-15 00:36:00
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