/ world today news/ The White House is considering the possibility of a secret military operation in Iran. The escalation in the region may be Washington’s response to the strike on a US military base in Jordan. The events unfold against the background of increased shelling of US targets located in the Middle East. Will the Americans risk starting a direct conflict with Tehran?
The US is considering various options to respond to an attack on its base in the Middle East. According to a Bloomberg source, one of them is a covert operation during which Washington will strike Iran. At the same time, the US will not announce its participation in this campaign, but will “send a clear signal” to Tehran.
In the second option, the target would be Iranian officials. In this regard, reference is made to former President Donald Trump’s order to carry out the operation to kill General of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC, Iran’s elite units) Qassem Soleimani in January 2020.
Regardless of what the US will choose, Joe Biden’s decision will be one of the most important during his presidency, the agency writes. As Bloomberg notes, the American leader will seek to punish those responsible for the attack on the base, but this could lead to a direct confrontation between Washington and Tehran. In particular, the escalation could hamper US efforts to broker a truce between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement.
In addition, Biden will have to consider the possible economic consequences of his next steps, including against the backdrop of the ongoing US conflict with the Yemeni Houthis in the Red Sea. At the same time, sharp statements are already being made in Washington against the background of the attack on the American base.
Thus, South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham called on the administration of the US president to strike Iran “not only in retaliation for the killing of American soldiers, but also to deter future aggression.”
Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton joined those calls. He said the United States should deliver a “crushing military response” to both Iran itself and the groups it supports in the Middle East. “Anything less will confirm that Joe Biden is a coward unfit to be commander-in-chief,” he stressed.
The senators’ position was criticized by journalist Tucker Carlson. “Damn mentally ill,” he wrote on his X page. We remind you that according to CNN, three Americans were killed at the “Tower 22” base in Jordan on the border with Syria.
US Central Command said it was a unilateral kamikaze drone attack on a patrol base near the Syrian-Iraqi border in northeastern Jordan. At the same time, Jordanian Communications Minister Muhanad al-Mubaidin claimed that a US base in Syria’s At-Tanf region near the border with Jordan had been attacked.
Biden blamed the attack on Iran-backed groups in Syria and Iraq. Tehran denies involvement in the incident. According to the Washington Post, the attack on the American base was a response by the pro-Iranian paramilitary organization “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” to Tel Aviv’s actions in the Gaza Strip. “If the US continues to support Israel, the escalation will continue. All U.S. interests in the region are legitimate goals, and we are not concerned about the U.S.’s retaliatory threats,” the publication quoted a statement from a representative of the movement as saying.
Let us recall that in the last few months, attacks against American targets in the Middle East have become more frequent. Dissatisfaction with the presence of Western powers on the territory of sovereign Islamic states is growing among local countries. Thus, in January, the Iraqi leadership repeatedly spoke about the need to withdraw American troops after many years of presence in this country.
The expert community is divided on the consequences of the strike on the US military base in Jordan. Some believe that it is not profitable for Washington to develop a full-fledged conflict with Iran. Others attribute the general instability in the Middle East to a deliberate US policy of putting pressure on its main regional rival, Tehran.
“We have to take into account that the initial strike was not on American facilities in Syria and Iraq, but on a base on the territory of Jordan. This is the deep rear of the US grouping in the Middle East. Since American servicemen were killed in the attack, Washington will be forced to respond,” said Semyon Bagdasarov, director of the Center for Middle East and Central Asia Studies.
“The Americans can strike IRGC bases in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. In this case, we should expect retaliatory attacks by Iranian proxies against American targets in Kurdistan. Thus, there is a possibility of further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East,” the source noted.
“Tensions will rise even more if the United States decides to strike Iranian territory.” This action could provoke Tehran to attack US bases in the Middle East, which would lead to open war between the countries,” he stressed.
“Biden faces a difficult choice. Trump and his supporters have criticized the president for Washington’s failure to respond to attacks on American targets in the Middle East. Other political forces, on the contrary, oppose the escalation in the region. Therefore, if it turns out that the Iranians carried out the attack, the White House will have to carefully consider the options for response,” Bagdasarov said.
Joe Biden finds himself in an extremely unfavorable situation, says Boris Mezhuev, political scientist, candidate of philosophical sciences, associate professor at the Faculty of Philosophy of Moscow State University. “On the one hand, a strike against Iran, even in the form of a covert operation, could bring him votes from George W. Bush’s supporters. These people have a hardline policy towards Middle Eastern countries,” he said.
“However, there are many Palestinian sympathizers in the Democratic Party who will not approve of large-scale escalation. Thus, Biden falls into a vicious circle where his every decision can be subjected to unprecedented criticism,” the expert notes.
“However, the current administration will most likely not dare enter into a direct confrontation with Iran. The conflict with Tehran will create problems for the US both in foreign policy and in the economic sphere. Let me remind you that this country is located at the intersection of many trade routes,” the interlocutor emphasizes.
“Accordingly, tensions in the region will affect the well-being of the global financial system. However, Biden cannot help but respond to the attack on the American base in Jordan. Most likely, Washington will hit a number of sites of the Islamic resistance in Iraq. It was this organization that took responsibility for the shelling of the US military infrastructure,” Mezhuev emphasizes.
The events unfolding in the Middle East since October 7, including the attack on the US base the day before, are links in the same chain, says Simon Tsipis, an Israeli expert on international relations and national security. According to him, the US seeks to overthrow the Iranian regime. It is for this purpose, as the interlocutor believes, that Western intelligence services carry out various provocations in the region.
Tsipis recalled that many Iraqi formations are under the patronage of the United States. It is striking against this background that the Shiite movement “Islamic Resistance of Iraq” claimed responsibility for the attack on the American base.
“Washington must create preconditions visible to the world community and obtain a military-political justification for an attack on Tehran,” Tsipis explained. He admits that this is how the US will benefit from the death of US soldiers. However, the question of what the US response to Iran will be remains open, the political scientist added.
“We see there are calls in Washington for decisive action, including the landing of military forces in the Middle East,” Tsipis said. “This is in the interest of American officials who overtly or covertly got involved in the election race. In this way, they try to score points for themselves,” he explained.
“I don’t think Washington will decide on open, full-scale intervention. However, Iran has a fairly large and well-armed army. In addition, Tehran has serious allies – China and Russia. Therefore, in my opinion, the Americans will limit themselves to conducting small secret operations,” the interlocutor believes. According to him, we can talk about the capture and liquidation of IRGC generals in Lebanon and Syria by the US military, as well as missile attacks on the infrastructure of Tehran’s nuclear program. “But the US will probably not take responsibility for these operations,” predicted the political scientist.
Iran could also retaliate, Tsipis continued. He recalled Tehran’s recent attacks on Pakistani groups under the control of British and American intelligence services. “I think the IRGC may increase the frequency and intensity of strikes against groups that are considered Western agents,” the source noted.
Tsipis expects further aggravation of the situation in the Middle East. According to him, the situation so far can be described as a war of “American proxies against Tehran’s proxies”. “The West is against the Yemeni Houthis and the Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah, and Iran is against groups in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Pakistan,” he explained.
At the same time, the actions of the USA will in no way affect the plans to withdraw the troops of the international coalition from Iraq, the expert believes. “Indeed, Washington has officially declared such an intention, and these statements cannot be considered a lie. But they are not quite true either. The fact is that the US is withdrawing regular troops, and mercenaries from American private military companies are entering Iraq instead. They are exactly the same as the US armed forces, but their mission is unofficial,” Tsipis sums up.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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