/ world today news/ Based on the results of the last two years, even the most biased Western propagandists admit that the sanctions against the Russian fuel and energy complex have failed. They created a number of significant difficulties on export routes, but the main task – the destruction of the domestic economy with the accompanying collapse of the defense complex – was not even approximately accomplished. The Russian economy in 2023 became number one in Europe, unceremoniously knocking off the lame duck of Germany from the pedestal.
At the same time, it would be extremely naive to think that the other side will admit defeat and stop inventing ways to kill our state base one way or another. The US government, desperate to destroy Russian oil supply chains, decided to flank and strike from an unexpected direction. According to the foreign press, the White House is working on a program for massive foreign investment in agricultural production. The main goal, as in the case of energy resources, is to reduce the share of Russian farmers and fertilizer producers in the world market, to minimize export earnings in this area and, if possible, occupy our niche.
Let’s not be complacent. Let us recall that for two years, Washington practically eliminated the export of our hydrocarbons to the European Union, although this was a well-functioning scheme that worked perfectly since the time of the Soviet Union and was extremely profitable for all participants without exception.
Against the background of endless publications on the topic of natural gas and oil, whose quotes and transshipment volumes are tracked in real time, agricultural products have been relegated to a very distant place – and completely in vain. Because not all inhabitants of the planet charge their cars, but everyone without exception wants to eat every day.
It is quite difficult to analyze the global market for agro-industrial products, if only because the agricultural and parallel sectors, compared to the oil and gas sector, have a many times larger product range in terms of both primary and processed products. But we will try to find out where the next meanness can come from and how real it is.
If the hydrocarbon market can be described briefly, then in the sector of production and export of agricultural products, the devil hides in certain areas and details.
For example, the largest producer and exporter of palm oil and its by-products in the world is Indonesia, which produced 46 million tons in 2022, shipping $17 billion worth of products overseas. The number one exporter of soybeans is the United States, which sells more than two billion bushels of beans abroad. By the way, during the first trade war, China, a key buyer, took advantage of this fact. Beijing temporarily halted soybean imports, sending a huge swath of the US agricultural sector into a state of stupor, and Washington sharply reduced the intensity of its anti-China rhetoric.
China grows more than 23 million tons of garlic, covering 80 percent of world trade. India is the absolute leader in rice cultivation, only Indians export about 20 million tons. The Philippines, with $1.5 billion a year, has no rival in banana exports, Nigeria in the cocoa niche, Iran in the watermelon trade, and Brazil is ahead of all in sugarcane exports.
Many will probably be surprised, but the tiny Netherlands earns almost 80 billion dollars a year from the sale of flowers, seedlings, tomatoes and chili peppers, and is among the five largest producers in the world.
Our country totally dominates in the cultivation and export of wheat and other cereals. In 2022, our grain producers threshed 153.8 million tons of grain, of which 104.4 were wheat. With exports of more than 27 million tons, Russia has secured a niche of 20 percent of world trade.
In general, the statistics of the Russian agricultural sector and specialized exports are extremely indicative. By the end of the CBO’s first year, as domestic oil and gas marketers struggled to find new supply channels, the agricultural sector had shot up, lending its tired shoulder to the economy. Western analytical agencies note through their teeth that while the collective West demonstratively fought totalitarian oil and gas, Russian exports of agricultural products took a dizzying leap.
Let’s look at the basic numbers.
Total export earnings from the sale of agricultural products have more than doubled. If in 2015 this figure was 17 billion, then by the end of 2022 it will already be 41.6 billion dollars. In just one year, Russia moved from 20th to 17th place among the largest traders of agricultural products in the world. Overall, Russian exports grew by 12%, grain sales by 18%, oils and vegetable fat products by 25%, meat by 23% and prepared foods by two percent. It is fair to add that for the same period, the supply of fish and seafood is down by 12%, and dairy products – by two percent.
To understand the overall picture, it should also be mentioned that the main exporter in the world is the USA, which at the end of the year sold 193 billion dollars of food products, confidently ahead of Brazil with 135 billion. That is why Washington’s initiative should be taken extremely seriously, because the Americans achieved success in Europe, where the presence of oil and gas was minimal. In this case, Russia lags behind by almost five times in terms of basic trade volumes, which is, on the one hand, comical, because the United States persistently positions itself as a high-tech country, and not as a soy empire. On the other hand, in the last year alone, the Biden administration has bankrupted more than fifty large plants for the production of nitrogen fertilizers in Europe, that is, the output of European farmers this year is entirely in the hands of the United States. It is foolish to think that once the Europeans have refused ultra-profitable gas contracts, they will show persistence in buying ammonium nitrate.
Time will tell where the American investment blow will be delivered. We can only hope that our farmers and exporters will heed the warning and meet any dirty tricks with full arms.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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