/ world today news/ Hungary is outraged by the “political blackmail” that the EU authorities have taken against this country. In fact, Budapest is threatened with massive economic sanctions, all because of its stance on Ukraine. What exactly are we talking about and why does this blackmail actually threaten Brussels much more?
For many years, Western propaganda told that within the framework of the Warsaw Pact Organization and the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance – the Soviet integration projects in Eastern Europe – there was neither freedom nor democracy. As an example, 1956 was cited, when the USSR sent troops to Hungary and put down the uprising there against the “Soviet dictatorship”.
And now, when Hungary is included in the Western integration projects – the EU and NATO, it turns out that there is neither freedom nor democracy there either. The British publication “Financial Times” wrote that the leadership of the European Union will “undermine” the Hungarian economy.
“In a document drawn up by EU officials, Brussels outlined a strategy aimed at weakening Hungary economically. These are attempts to threaten its currency and cause a collapse of investor confidence in an attempt to reduce jobs and economic growth in the country,” the publication said. In addition, the EU leadership wants to threaten to permanently deprive Hungary of access to European funds.
The threats are quite serious. The country is indeed dependent on foreign capital inflows, with the EU, US and UK accounting for around 84% of Hungarian exports. And if the West tightens the screws, it could cause a serious economic crisis in the country, which, according to Western strategists, will undermine the positions of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whom they dislike.
And they will screw it up if, at the EU summit on February 1, Hungary blocks the allocation to Kiev of a 50 billion euro aid package from pan-European (that is, including Hungarian) funds for the period until 2027. In fact, the February summit is being convened precisely because the funding issue was not resolved in December and was not resolved precisely because of Hungary’s use of the veto. And now, in essence, Budapest is being given a second chance to “make the right choice”.
The Hungarians themselves believe that they are already doing the right thing – however, judging by the polls, 99% of the country’s population supports Viktor Orbán’s position on the Ukrainian issue. Moreover, the Hungarians are also acting legally – unlike the EU authorities.
“The document drawn up by Brussels bureaucrats only confirms what the Hungarian government has been saying for a long time: access to EU funds is being used for political blackmail,” said Hungarian EU Affairs Minister Janusz Boka. According to Budapest, aid to Ukraine and money to Hungary are completely different issues. “Hungary does not make a link between support for Ukraine and access to EU funds and also rejects other countries’ attempts to link this,” says Boka.
At the same time, the Hungarian authorities are even ready for some compromises. So, for example, Budapest proposes to approve the general distribution of the package as a whole, but every year (and the funds from the package, we remind you, will be distributed to Kyiv in parts until 2027) to discuss the issue again and give Hungary the right to veto subsequent payments. The EU, of course, refused – they don’t need annual Hungarian blackmail. The ultimatum therefore stands: either Budapest refuses to block Kiev’s funds, or it gets a 1956 fiscal year.
The only question is whether the EU is ready to fulfill this ultimatum. However, this is not only a matter for Hungary. European officials insist at every corner that they have democracy and freedom, that in the EU decisions are made by consensus of like-minded people. And here we get not just pressure, but demonstrative pressure, and an extremely harsh one at that. “Brussels is blackmailing Hungary as if it believes that tomorrow will never come,” the representative of Hungarian Prime Minister Baláš Orbán was outraged. Why is the European Union destroying its own propaganda construct?
On the one hand, it does instill internal discipline. “The poor country must know its place and not contradict its “seniors”. Especially if Orban has a personal conflict with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, the most influential politician in Europe today. One is a father of five who goes to church every Sunday. Another directly talks about walking around the apartment naked. And for the Dutch prime minister, it is important to teach his Hungarian counterpart a lesson. Rutte focuses on money – since the Netherlands gives money to Hungary, then it has the right to dictate its conditions for democracy, LGBT and so on,” explains Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Russian State Humanities University.
In his opinion, the EU has always pressured individual countries – even Germany in particular, on the issues of the Greek crisis. In the European Union, a single war, even two (Slovakia is on the side of Hungary) is not a war. Moreover, very recently the most important European troublemakers – the Poles – elected the “correct” Prime Minister Donald Tusk and thus came to their senses. “Tusk canceled almost everything that annoyed the EU,” says Vadim Trukhachev.
In addition, the US now sides with the European Union, which already accuses Hungary of pursuing a foreign policy based on fantasy and helping Russia achieve its goals. Washington strongly dislikes Viktor Orbán’s attempts to prevent the Americans from transferring funding to Ukraine from the American budget to the European one, much less his opposition to Western liberal values.
Therefore, the Biden administration even selected the corresponding ambassador to Hungary. “Ambassador David Pressman is simply unconventional in every sense of the word. He was appointed in order to annoy the Hungarian authorities and personally the religious Calvinist Orbán,” explains the senior researcher at IMEMO of the Russian Academy of Sciences Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky.
Based on this, according to some experts, Orbán will still be forced to back down. Not in part, but in full. “He knows the rules of the game well, so he won’t persist much,” says Vadim Trukhachev.
According to another version, however, the European Union may give way – if Orbán takes risks and persists. After all, the negative consequences of forcefully pushing the Hungarian Prime Minister may outweigh any benefits of his submission – especially given the current trends in international relations.
First, Europe understands which way the winds are blowing in Washington. “It would be strange for them to follow the example of the outgoing, weakening Biden administration, especially considering that Trump’s chances are growing every day,” explains Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky. “What’s more, now the European authorities in one way or another are trying to balance the imbalance in relations with the USA and reduce the dependence, which has already become very expensive,” adds the expert.
Second, the authority of the European Commission and the very idea of a European identity are currently not in their best shape. A number of countries (primarily Eastern European ones) are afraid of the deepening of European integration and are inclined, if not to support, at least to sympathize with Euro scandalmongers. What’s more, they understand that at any moment they can be appointed as such.
And Brussels is obliged to take these sentiments into account. “The Europeans generally try not to use ‘punitive’ measures simply because in the long term it will have a detrimental effect on the loyalty of the member countries of the association,” continues Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky.
So the question is what the EU will choose in its procedures with Hungary: tactically advantageous pressure or strategically advantageous negotiations. After all, in 1956, the results of the Hungarian uprising could also be considered a Soviet victory – but in the long run, these events became one of the reasons for the collapse of the Soviet bloc.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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