Jakarta –
Voting day for the 2024 election is approaching. What is the strength of the three H-4 presidential and vice presidential candidate pairs ahead of the voting?
A number of survey institutions release the electability of presidential and vice presidential candidates. From the three latest survey results, candidate pair number 2, Prabowo-Gibran is ahead.
Indicator Survey
The results of the Indonesian Political Indicators survey, pair number 2, Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabumimg Raka were in first place with an electability of 51.8 percent. The survey was conducted in the period 28 January to 4 February 2024 with a total of 1,200 respondents.
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The sampling method used was multistage random sampling with a margin of error (MoE) of around ±2.9% at a 95% confidence level.
In the 2024 presidential election survey, Prabowo-Gibran was in first place with 51.8 percent, while Anies-Muhaimin was in second place with 24.1 percent and Ganjar-Mahfud 19.6 percent. Burhanuddin said the difference between AMIN and Ganjar-Mahfud was not significant.
“And the result, if we use a ballot simulation, is Pak Prabowo Gibran with 51.8 percent, while in second place is Anies Muhaimin with 24.1 percent, in third place, although the difference is not statistically significant with Mas Anies, is Ganjar-Mahfud Md and still “There were 4.5 percent of our respondent voters who, when we surveyed, said they didn’t know or didn’t answer,” said the Executive Director of Indonesian Political Indicators in Central Jakarta, Friday (9/2/2024).
He said there was still a chance that the election would last in two rounds. However, the trend of Prabowo and Gibran continues to increase, making the probability of a one-round presidential election even greater.
“The next question is, does this 51.8 percent figure indicate that next Wednesday’s election will last in one round? Well, we can discuss it later, but what we can say is, because there is still a margin of error, conservatively there is still a chance of two rounds,” said Burhanuddin .
“But the 51.8 percent upward trend is still ongoing for Prabowo-Gibran, so I say the potential or probability of one round has increased for Mr. Prabowo compared to previous surveys,” he concluded.
Poltracking Survey
Then there is the Poltracking survey institute. The survey results placed candidate pair number 2, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka in the top position with a figure of 50.9%.
This survey was conducted on January 25-February 2 2024 with a total of 1,220 respondents in Indonesia. The margin of error (MoE) for this survey is +-2.9% with a confidence level of 95%.
Data collection using direct face-to-face interviews with respondents. The survey population of citizens in Indonesia who have the right to vote are over 17 years old or married.
Respondents were asked the question, ‘If the presidential election were held today, who would you choose among the following pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates?’. Here are the results:
– Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar: 25.1%
– Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming: 50.9%
– Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud Md: 18.4%
– Don’t know/don’t answer: 5.6%.
Executive Director of Poltracking Indonesia, Hanta Yuda AR, said that Prabowo-Gibran is predicted to win one round. However, if there are two rounds, Anies-Muhaimin has more potential to enter than Ganjar-Mahfud.
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2024-02-09 23:42:11
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