There are those in Israel who believe that the current circumstances constitute a golden opportunity to launch a large-scale pre-emptive war against Hezbollah’s capabilities in Lebanon. The Israeli army has ended a large part of its operations in Gaza, and a number of its forces that were participating in the battles with the Hamas movement have been withdrawn. In the Gaza Strip, it can be directed towards its northern borders, where the colonies have been emptied of their settlers, and the United States of America is present in the region, but there are those who do not support this vision.
Those who reject the war against Lebanon in the entity believe that the army is exhausted from its war on Gaza, and has been subjected to great exhaustion and needs months and perhaps more to recover. They believe that evacuating the northern settlements is not a solution because a widespread war with Hezbollah will mean that there is no safe place in all of Israel because the party’s missiles It covers its entire area, inch by inch, and they also consider that there is no place for a preemptive war, since the factor of surprise has fallen since last October 11, the day there was an Israeli intention to launch a war.
Between these two opinions, the military reality continues as it is on the southern front in Lebanon, amid American efforts led by American envoy Amos Hochstein to reach a diplomatic solution that prevents war. During his recent visit to Tel Aviv, he held talks that the Israeli media described as positive, as he said: “ “There are positive signs of calm between Israel and Hezbollah after American mediation.” Does this atmosphere coincide with what Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said about Lebanon’s full readiness to implement Resolution 1701?
According to follow-up sources, Berri’s statement is inseparable from the positive atmosphere being pumped into the Israeli media, especially after the visit made by US Presidential Advisor Amos Hochstein to Tel Aviv in recent days, as various indicators confirm that there is progress somewhere, despite the… Things did not work out for their sisters.
In principle, the basic starting point for this positivity is the lack of a real desire to expand the scope of military confrontations, while the political and media escalation comes as a result of improving the conditions for negotiation, on the basis that each party does not have the ability to emerge with the appearance of being broken or defeated.
Here comes the role of the United States, which seeks to play the role of mediator through Hochstein, by presenting proposals that lead to the two sides agreeing to them. However, matters still require further research, without ignoring the interconnection factor between this front and those existing in the Gaza Strip. What was agreed upon is that there will be no calm on the southern front before calm on the Gaza front, and after that everything will be easier, and here, according to the sources, there is talk of two stages of the agreement, the first related to the cessation of military actions and the deployment of the Lebanese army, and the talk has begun in detail about that. By talking about training for soldiers and recruiting soldiers that may be funded from abroad, and a second stage related to demarcation, where Israel will have to make concessions because the border file is not subject to negotiation for the sake of demarcation, but rather negotiation for the sake of consolidation and liberation.
All these positives remain subject to the “madness” of the head of the Israeli war government, Benjamin Netanyahu, which is no longer a source of concern only for the region, but also a source of concern for the American administration.
2024-02-07 02:01:14
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