New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters Rally Behind Trump, Exit Polls Reveal
In the wake of the Iowa caucuses, the New Hampshire GOP presidential primary took place on Tuesday, and the early results of CNN’s exit poll shed light on the demographic profile and political views of the Republican voters who turned out. While New Hampshire may not be seen as a natural stronghold for former President Donald Trump, the GOP primary voters in the state showed a strong inclination to embrace him over his remaining contender, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
Less Conservatism, More Openness to Trump
Compared to the electorate in Iowa, the New Hampshire GOP primary voters were found to be less staunchly conservative and less closely tied to the Republican Party. In Iowa, nearly 9 in 10 voters described themselves as conservative, while in New Hampshire, about two-thirds identified as conservative. Furthermore, only a quarter of New Hampshire voters considered themselves very conservative, compared to half of Iowa caucus-goers. These numbers provide a significantly different backdrop for the primary race.
Despite not considering themselves part of the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement popularized by Trump in 2016, approximately 6 in 10 New Hampshire GOP primary voters expressed their willingness to see Trump as the eventual nominee of the Republican Party. Moreover, most voters indicated that they would still consider him fit to return to the presidency even if convicted of a crime.
Educational Divide and Registered Voters’ Preferences
One notable split among the state’s GOP primary voters was along educational lines. About two-thirds of voters without college degrees backed Trump, while approximately 6 in 10 college graduates supported Haley. Additionally, registered Republicans overwhelmingly favored Trump, with about three-quarters supporting him. On the other hand, registered undeclared voters (independent voters) leaned more towards Haley, with about two-thirds backing her.
Election Denialism and Voting Patterns
The exit poll revealed that about 8 in 10 of Trump’s voters in New Hampshire denied the legitimacy of President Joe Biden’s election win in 2020, mirroring the widespread election denialism that persists among Trump’s supporters. On the contrary, the majority of Haley’s supporters acknowledged the results of the 2020 election.
Regarding decision-making, the majority of Trump voters in New Hampshire made up their minds early and cast their votes with little hesitation. Conversely, Haley voters tended to decide later, with most making their choice in the last month leading up to the primary. Some Haley voters admitted that their support for her was primarily driven by distaste for her opponents or that they only liked her with reservations.
Key Qualities and Issues
When asked about the qualities they valued most in a candidate, roughly 3 in 10 voters wanted someone who would fight for them, while a similar share sought someone who shared their values. Fewer voters prioritized temperament or the ability to defeat Biden. Trump’s voters placed a higher emphasis on a willingness to fight for them, whereas Haley’s voters were more likely to prioritize temperament.
The primary electorate as a whole expressed dissatisfaction with the state of the country, with about 8 in 10 voters feeling unhappy. However, Trump voters were more than three times as likely as Haley voters to describe themselves as angry about the way things are going in the US. Additionally, Trump received strong support from those who felt their families were falling behind substantially.
In terms of top issues in the election, New Hampshire’s Republican primary voters largely cited the economy or immigration. While supporters of both candidates opposed a federal law banning most or all abortions, Haley’s backers in New Hampshire opposed the idea by a much wider margin compared to Iowa caucus-goers.
Exit Polls: A Glimpse into Voter Demographics and Views
Exit polls are valuable tools for understanding primary voters’ demographic profiles and political views. However, it is important to note that exit polls provide estimates, not precise measurements of the electorate, particularly in the preliminary stage. These early results have not yet been weighted to match the final primary results. Nevertheless, they offer a glimpse into the types of voters who participated in the New Hampshire GOP primary.
The exit poll, conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool, consisted of 2,029 interviews with Republican primary voters across 40 different polling places. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points, which may be larger for subgroups.
As the New Hampshire GOP primary comes to a close, Trump’s strong support among the state’s Republican voters highlights his enduring appeal within the party. Despite the differences in conservatism and party ties compared to Iowa, New Hampshire voters have shown their willingness to embrace Trump as a potential nominee, setting the stage for an intriguing race ahead.
