According to a report released on the 12th by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank in Washington, D.C., most U.S. and Taiwanese experts pointed out that the possibility of a military conflict breaking out in the Taiwan Strait in the past five years is very small, and China lacks the ability to launch an effective amphibious attack on Taiwan. The ability to invade. However, in the next five years, China is very likely to isolate and block Taiwan.
U.S. News Axios reported that the CSIS China Power Project cooperated with Taiwan’s National Defense Security Research Institute and interviewed 87 experts from the United States and Taiwan. 52 were from the United States and 35 from Taiwan. The survey was conducted on November 28, 2023. Until December 15th. The survey showed that only 26% of American experts and 17% of Taiwanese experts agreed that China has the military capability to launch an effective amphibious invasion of Taiwan within the next five years. One reason for this assessment is that “an amphibious invasion would require a much higher military investment than a quarantine or blockade, and the operations involved would be much more complex.”
At the same time, 90% of American experts and 62% of Taiwanese experts said that China may implement a commercial trade isolation rather than launch military operations against Taiwan. Quarantine refers to a law enforcement operation led by non-military actors such as the Chinese Coast Guard or maritime militia. It is a limited blockade that targets commercial activities and restricts the entry of commercial goods into Taiwan. Its scale is more limited than a blockade. Most experts from Taiwan and the United States agree that China has the ability to impose an isolation or blockade on Taiwan within the next five years.
The report pointed out that most experts believe that China has the ability to target Taiwan through quarantine and blockade, but they do not believe that China can carry out effective aggression. Pessimistically, nearly half of the Taiwanese experts surveyed believe that if Beijing does not like the election results (the DPP continues to be in power), it is very likely to take non-military coercive actions before the end of 2024, such as large-scale military operations to encircle Taiwan.
80% of American experts and 60% of Taiwanese experts said that China has the ability to impose a blockade on Taiwan. The blockade will involve commercial and military activities and will be directly led by the Chinese military. In the next five years, if China chooses to threaten Taiwan, the most likely approach is to isolate it; if Beijing intends to promote immediate reunification within five years, the most likely scenario is a joint blockade led by the People’s Liberation Army.
Washington think tank strategic report released: Experts: China will not be able to attack Taiwan within 5 years but will be able to block it
According to a report released on the 12th by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank in Washington, D.C., most U.S. and Taiwanese experts pointed out that the possibility of a military conflict breaking out in the Taiwan Strait in the past five years is very small, and China lacks the ability to launch an effective amphibious attack on Taiwan. The ability to invade. However, in the next five years, China is very likely to isolate and block Taiwan.
2024-01-23 09:33:52
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