Expert: The foundations of the global nuclear system are still “solid” despite skepticism
It is no secret that the global nuclear order does not enjoy consensus, but “its foundations are still solid” and deterrence is still effective, despite North Korea’s tests and Iran’s search for opportunities, according to Bruno Tertris, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS), in Interview with Agence France-Presse.
“If the nuclear system has been questioned or challenged, its foundations remain solid and its basic elements still exist,” said the French nuclear expert, who has just published a book on deterrence policy.
As for concerns, “North Korea, China, India and Pakistan are still determined to become conscious nuclear powers and only encourage moderation and disarmament,” according to Tertreis.
Deputy Director of the Strategic Research Foundation, Bruno Tertris (LinkedIn)
Iran, which stresses that it is not seeking to develop a nuclear bomb, has continued to enrich uranium to levels well above the maximum of 3.67 percent, stipulated in the 2015 agreement with major powers.
Last year, North Korea enshrined its status as a nuclear power in its constitution, and has since conducted test launches of a number of advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles, in violation of United Nations resolutions.
Pyongyang also announced (Friday) that it had tested an “underwater nuclear weapons system” in response to joint naval exercises conducted by Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo, amid fears of a hardening position by its leader, Kim Jong Un, who repeats his fiery statements.
Deterrence policy
North Korea’s position is considered “hostile” and falls within the “policy of deterrence,” according to Tertrees.
He added: “I did not read in North Korea’s recent statements anything that constitutes a break with what it has been saying for 20 years. “At the end of the 1990s, North Korea was already threatening to turn Seoul into a sea of fire.”
He added, “North Korea continues to patiently and resolutely build a fully operational nuclear force” while seeking “to attract the attention of the international community when it is distracted by other things,” as happened in recent years with Ukraine and Israel.
The situation in Russia is also worrying, with the largest number of nuclear warheads in the world. In February, Moscow suspended its participation in the “New START” nuclear disarmament treaty, signed between Russia and the United States in 2010, which is the last bilateral agreement linking Moscow and Washington.
Tertreis believed that “with regard to bilateral arms control, we have reached the end of the episode,” noting that this “does not necessarily mean that Russia and the United States are resuming the arms race” at the quantitative level.
He added that if the two powers were busy modernizing their arsenals, the “exotic” nuclear weapons possessed by Vladimir Putin, which are supposed to overcome any anti-missile shield, “have not yet shown that they are capable of making strategic breakthroughs.”
Nuclear taboos
He pointed out that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which entered into force in 1970 and only Pyongyang withdrew from it in 2003, is still in effect.
In reality, the spread remained limited; Over the course of about 80 years, only 9 countries have obtained nuclear weapons: the United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea.
The expert added, “For about 20 years, no country, except Iran, has shown a desire to become a nuclear power.”
The taboo surrounding nuclear weapons remains strong. He welcomed the matter, saying: “There has not been a confirmed nuclear test recorded for at least 5 years.” Nuclear deterrence is still achieving results.
A good example is what happened in Ukraine, “when the specter of nuclear energy loomed over a conflict in which the military and political parties involved possessed this weapon, and the matter required a degree of caution on both sides.”
Moscow’s announcement in March that it would deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus, and the test launch of ballistic missiles in October with the aim of preparing Russian forces for a retaliatory “massive nuclear strike”, raised concerns in the West.
He added, “If Russia really wanted to intimidate us by brandishing a nuclear threat, it would not have hesitated to carry out some unusual moves and exercises.” But it did not happen that way.”
He pointed out “the risks of disputes and incidents that are difficult to control,” but nothing leads to believe that they are “stronger today than they were 10 years ago, before Moscow’s invasion of Crimea,” expressing his concern about “the hardening of authoritarian regimes,” which “makes them feel “More paranoid.”
But “if there is one area in which Russia still shows rationality, it is nuclear energy,” Tertris explained, “which shows that Putin has not yet lost touch with strategic realities.”
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2024-01-21 00:19:10
