Tech (Semiconductor) Market Continues to Rise – Economic Analysis by Tomio Sugimura

Economic commentator Tomio Sugimura
“Tech (semiconductor) continues to lead the rally!”

●The market capitalization of core stocks continues to increase!

The exchange rate is trending toward a weaker yen, with the dollar being at 148 yen. While the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy revisions were postponed in consideration of the Noto Peninsula earthquake, the expected timing of interest rate cuts in the United States has been pushed back and the number of cuts has been reduced (from the original six to three?). Well, it can be seen as a reversal.

Still, it’s good news for the stock market.toyota motors <7203> [東証Ｐ]is rising along with trade. It was ranked 4th in the Tokyo market trading value ranking on the 18th. As you know, it is the top company in market capitalization in the Tokyo market. However, its market capitalization is only 48.1 trillion yen.microsoftappleare over 430 trillion yen each.

teslaAfter all, it’s 99.7 trillion yen. Is Toyota lagging behind? That’s probably right. In addition to the strong yen, it was difficult to buy due to the Daihatsu Motor Corporation scandal, but foreigners, mainly those with U.S. pension plans, are now buying. American institutional investors are restricted from investing in Chinese stocks. Public funds are prohibited. That money is probably going toward Japanese stocks.

By the way, Sony Group is the second largest company by market capitalization. <6758> [東証Ｐ]NTT in 3rd place <9432> [東証Ｐ]Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group ranked 4th. <8306> [東証Ｐ]Keyence in 5th place <6861> [東証Ｐ]Tokyo Electron in 6th place <8035> [東証Ｐ]Contains. However, the market capitalization remains at 13 trillion to 18 trillion yen.

Compared to American companies, the scale is too small.Honda <7267> [東証Ｐ]8.6 trillion yen, Daikin Industries <6367> [東証Ｐ]is 7.1 trillion yen, Renesas Electronics <6723> [東証Ｐ]is 5.6 trillion yen, disco <6146> [東証Ｐ]is 4.4 trillion yen. If this happens, we will be swallowed up by the Magnificent Seven (the top seven American companies by market capitalization).

●Nomura Holdings aims to increase PBR by 1x!

After all, the market capitalization of the Magnificent Seven is over 1,700 trillion yen. I think the market capitalization of Japan’s core companies has started to increase.Nomura Holdings, considered a “hero” in the securities industry <8604> [東証Ｐ]Its market capitalization is only 2.3 trillion yen. PBR is 0.67x, below 1x. In the long term, the company will aim to increase PBR to 1x (1,092 yen).

The American market is NVIDIA.High-tech companies (giant IT companies) such as , Apple, and Microsoft are strong. It’s semiconductor related. In Japan, against the backdrop of friend sharing (a movement to complete the supply chain with only the West), the manufacturing industry is returning to Japan, and the construction of new factories (particularly semiconductors) is accelerating.

Support for Microsoft’s Windows 10 will end in 2025. PC users will upgrade before the deadline.intelQualcomm semiconductors for use in PCswill introduce smartphone chips equipped with AI (artificial intelligence) to support the phenomenal growth of the AI ​​market (expected to grow at an annual rate of over 70%).

Japanese companies in this field (large-scale language models) include NTT and NEC. <6701> [東証Ｐ]IBIDEN <4062> [東証Ｐ]and so on.In addition, Tomogawa Corporation, which supplies semiconductor materials, <3878> [東証Ｓ]Resonac Holdings <4004> [東証Ｐ]Dexerials <4980> [東証Ｐ]etc. will be enriched.

In addition, ROHM’s power semiconductor <6963> [東証Ｐ]Qualtech, which handles inspection of automotive semiconductors. <9165> [東証Ｇ]is also attracting attention.Laprobe, a contract company for semiconductor testing processes <6627> [東証Ｓ]is unusually high. A new factory is under construction in Kumamoto.

Furthermore, NVIDIA has a market share of over 80% in GPUs (image processing semiconductors) and AI chips. Manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSMC)In charge of TSMC suppliers Resonac, IBIDEN, and Taiyo Holdings <4626> [東証Ｐ]can enjoy the benefits.Sakura Internet is an NVIDIA related company. <3778> [東証Ｐ]NTT Data Group <9613> [東証Ｐ]There is.

Diary January 19, 2024

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2024-01-21 00:15:00
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