NFL Divisional Round Playoff Game Picks, Schedule, and Guide
The NFL playoffs’ divisional round schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Texans vs. Ravens
In the first matchup of the divisional round, the Houston Texans will face off against the Baltimore Ravens. Both teams are looking to break their postseason streaks, with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens aiming for their first divisional round win and the Texans hoping to secure their first victory in this round.
One key factor to watch in this game is the performance of Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud. He has been impressive all season, leading the league in passing yards per game. The bold prediction is that Stroud will throw for over 300 yards, becoming the first quarterback to achieve that feat against the Ravens since Tom Brady in 2022.
The Ravens have been successful with play-action, and Jackson has excelled in this area. On the other hand, the Texans have struggled to defend against play-action. The X factor in this matchup will be the Texans’ offensive line, as they need to protect Stroud from the Ravens’ simulated pressure.
The game-plan key for the Texans is to get Stroud outside of the pocket on boot concepts, with tight end Dalton Schultz as the underneath target. This could help them find success against the Ravens’ strong defense.
The officiating note for this game is that referee John Hussey’s crew has been aggressive with intentional grounding flags, and Jackson has been penalized the most in the league for intentional grounding. The Texans will need to be aware of this and avoid unnecessary penalties.
The Ravens are favored in this game, and our final score picks are Ravens 27, Texans 20 (Walder) and Ravens 37, Texans 24 (Moody). The Football Power Index (FPI) predicts a win for the Ravens with a 81.7% chance.
Packers vs. 49ers
The second matchup of the divisional round features the Green Bay Packers against the San Francisco 49ers. This is the 10th playoff meeting between these two teams, with the 49ers holding a slight edge in their head-to-head record.
The 49ers have won their past six NFC divisional-round playoff games, the longest active streak in the NFL. The winner of this game will either take or share the title of winningest team in postseason history. The Packers are tied with the Patriots at 37 playoff wins and could move into first place alone with a victory.
The bold prediction for this game is that Jayden Reed will be the Packers’ leading receiver. Reed didn’t catch a single pass in the previous week, but the Packers have had a different leading receiver in terms of yards in consecutive weeks. Reed set a franchise record for catches by a rookie this season.
The 49ers have dominated their home playoff games, winning their past five. They have also had success against the Packers in previous playoff matchups. The X factor in this game will be Packers quarterback Jordan Love, who has been performing at a high level since Week 10. His quarterback play gives the Packers a chance against any team, including the 49ers.
The game-plan key for the 49ers is to scheme open-field opportunities for receiver Deebo Samuel, who has excelled in yards after the catch. The Packers will need to be on their tackling A-game to limit Samuel’s impact.
The officiating note for this game is that referee Alex Kemp’s crew led the NFL in flags per game. Both teams finished in the top third of the league for most flags this season.
The Packers have been successful as underdogs, winning four straight games outright. However, our final score picks are 49ers 30, Packers 23 (Walder) and 49ers 31, Packers 21 (Moody). FPI predicts a win for the 49ers with a 78.6% chance.
Buccaneers vs. Lions
The third matchup of the divisional round sees the Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking on the Detroit Lions. The Lions are coming off their first playoff win in 32 years and will host their first NFC divisional round appearance since 1991.
The bold prediction for this game is that the Buccaneers will hold the Lions under 20 points and come out with a victory. The Buccaneers’ defense has found its footing, and quarterback Baker Mayfield has been playing well despite injuries.
The Buccaneers’ defense has been aggressive with blitzing this season, and they could look to dial it up even more against Lions quarterback Jared Goff, who has struggled when facing pressure. The X factor in this game will be Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who has been on a hot streak with multiple sacks in his
