LSI Denny JA Survey: Prabowo – Gibran Leading with 46.6% Electability

CNN Indonesia

Thursday, 18 Jan 2024 15:01 IWST

The LSI Denny JA survey shows that the electability of candidate pair number 2 Prabowo – Gibran obtained the top position compared to the two rival pairs. (ANTARA FOTO/Aditya Pradana Putra)

Jakarta, CNN Indonesia —

Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) Denny JA released a national survey for the period 3-11 January 2024 showing the electability of candidate pair number 2 Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka obtained the top position compared to his two rivals in the 2024 presidential election.

LSI Denny JA senior researcher, Ardian Sopa, noted that Prabowo-Gibran’s electability reached 46.6 percent. Followed by candidate pair number 3 Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD at 24.8 percent. Then the lowest position is 22.8 percent of candidate pair number 1 Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar.

Meanwhile, 5.3 percent of other respondents chose not to answer or didn’t know, and 0.5 percent of the votes were invalid.

“So there is electability margin “The highest is between candidate pairs 2 with 1 and 3. Prabowo-Gibran won by a landslide with a margin of over 21 percent,” said Ardi in East Jakarta, Thursday (18/1).

Looking at the survey results, Ardi assesses that the chances of one or two rounds of the 2024 presidential election are still equally strong. However, of the three candidate pairs, he said Prabowo-Gibran had the potential to qualify in one round, because their electability was only 4 percent short of winning.

He explained that Prabowo-Gibran’s electability continues to increase. In early November 2023, when Prabowo proposed to Gibran, their electability rose to 40.3 percent. Continued at the end of November 42.9 percent; in early December it fell to 41.2, at the end of December it rose again to 43.3 percent, and in early January it rose to 46.6 percent.

The Ganjar-Mahfud MD pair was stable and had a decline. At the beginning of November it was at 28.6 percent, then at the end of November it fell to 24.9 percent; early December rose to 26.8 percent; at the end of December it fell again to 22.9 percent, and at the beginning of January 2024 it rose again to 24.8 percent.

Meanwhile, the Anies-Cak Imin pair was stable until it surpassed candidate pair number 3 but fell again. Anies-Cak Imin in early November received 20.3 percent of the vote. Then at the end of November it rose to 24 percent; early December 23.8 percent; at the end of December it rose to 25.3 percent, but at the beginning of January 2024 it fell to 22.8 percent.

“If we can maintain the existing trend, of course this is an advantage for Prabowo-Gibran, so this is what we are saying that the presidential election in one round is now more likely to happen,” he said.

Ardi said LSI Denny JA conducted a face-to-face survey in the period 3-11 January 2024 using a questionnaire to 1200 respondents throughout Indonesia. This survey uses multi-stage random sampling with margin of error this survey was 2.9 percent.

Apart from surveys using quantitative methods, LSI Denny JA also enriches information and analysis with qualitative methods, such as: media analysis, in-depth interviewand focus group discussion.

For the equivalent of three dollars, a survey conducted by Indonesian Political Indicators shows the electability of the presidential and vice presidential candidate pair Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka in the top position. Prabowo-Gibran’s electability reached 41 percent.

Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar’s electability overtook Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD compared to the survey at the end of December 2023. In this latest survey, Anies-Muhaimin’s electability was 23.3 percent, while Ganjar-Mahfud’s electability was only 20.6 percent. There were 13.4 respondents who did not answer and did not make a choice.

(khr/isn)

Watch the Video Below:

2024-01-18 08:01:26


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