The Noto Peninsula Earthquake caused serious damage, including not only rebuilding the lives of the victims, but also collapsed houses, severed roads, and upheaval of the ocean floor, making recovery and reconstruction an urgent task. To this end, there are growing calls for the funds, materials, equipment, and human resources allocated to next year’s Osaka/Kansai Expo to be directed toward reconstruction. The Japan Restoration Association and others have begun promoting the image of a “Recovery Expo,” likening it to the Tokyo Olympics, which celebrates the recovery Olympic Games, but will such talk be enough? (Joe Miyahata, Yuichiro Yamada)
◆“I can’t tell you to stop a stranger’s festival.”
Nobuyuki Baba, representative of Japan Restoration Society
“I’m not opposed to holding the World Expo, but if it means that less support will come to Noto, I’d like it to be stopped.”
Tomoya Nanami (59), who runs a liquor store in Anamizu Town, Ishikawa Prefecture, speaks with emotion. Although his store and house were spared from being destroyed, “everything that could be broken was broken,” including liquor bottles in the store and warehouse. Most of the businesses are wholesalers, but restaurants and accommodation facilities have been destroyed. There are growing concerns about whether business will return to normal.
There is no theme park like Tokyo Disneyland in Noto. Festivals held throughout the year are one of the local pleasures. Perhaps that’s why Nanami-san understands the idea of holding the event itself. “Just because we’re going through something like this, we can’t tell other people to stop holding festivals. We should allocate enough people, materials, and budget to Noto, and then hold the Expo.”
◆ “It would be nice if I could do both, but I don’t think that’s possible.”
Noto’s traditional festival “Kiriko” was also damaged by the tsunami in Suzu City on the 10th.
The Noto region has been experiencing depopulation for some time. Many local governments are financially weak. A 67-year-old former employee of Anamizu Town emphasizes, “If things continue like this, depopulation will accelerate and there will be no one left to live in the area.We need generous subsidies from the government.”
Having been involved in promoting government policy himself, he says, “I can’t say we should stop the Expo itself,” but says, “It would be nice if we could be more generous with both recovery and reconstruction and the Expo, but I don’t think that’s possible. “I can’t tell them to do their best. I want them to prioritize reconstruction first.”
◆Prime Minister: “We have to anticipate financial demands that will exceed the Kumamoto earthquake.”
As of 2 p.m. on the 16th, 222 people had died (including disaster-related deaths) and 1,036 people had been injured in Ishikawa Prefecture due to the recent Noto Peninsula earthquake. There are still 22 people whose whereabouts are unknown. More than 21,400 homes were damaged and more than 17,000 people were evacuated. Power outages and water outages continue, and there is no prospect that the infrastructure for daily life will be restored.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (file photo)
It is also unclear how much reconstruction will cost. The government has decided to spend 4,737.9 million yen from the general reserve fund, which is approximately twice the amount for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. For the Kumamoto earthquake, 778 billion yen was allocated in the supplementary budget. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on the 5th, “We must also anticipate financial demands that will exceed the example of Kumamoto.”
Although some are calling for the expo to be canceled due to the current situation, there are a number of positive statements from those promoting the event.
◆Promoters say “This is not an either/or relationship.”
“I hope this will be an event that will encourage everyone in Hokuriku to take steps towards a brighter future with new dreams and hopes.” Nobuyuki Baba, representative of the Japan Restoration Association, said this at a press conference on the 5th, hinting at a “Recovery Expo.” When asked about concerns that there would be a scramble for materials and human resources between reconstruction and preparations for the Expo, he replied, “I don’t think building materials (for the Expo) are the same as the restoration of lifelines and housing.”
Hirofumi Yoshimura, Governor of Osaka Prefecture (file photo)
Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura of Osaka Prefecture also stated on the 4th, “It’s not an either-or relationship. Just because there’s an Expo, it doesn’t mean that (reconstruction) costs will be reduced.” In his New Year’s greetings, he addressed the staff and said, “We’re finishing up the process.” “This will be a year of competition,” he said with encouragement.
Furthermore, Keidanren Chairman Masakazu Tokura, who also serves as the chairman of the Japan Association for World Expositions, stated at a press conference on the 9th, “It is inappropriate to think of (the World Expo and reconstruction) as binary oppositions.” Expo Minister Eiko Jimi also denied the possibility of cancellation or postponement.
A large amount of materials, equipment, and manpower will be needed for reconstruction, and there are concerns that there will be competition with construction work for the Osaka/Kansai Expo. The World Expo, which is scheduled to open in spring 2025, has been plagued by delays in the construction of pavilions, which are built by participating countries on their own, and construction began on the Singapore pavilion for the first time on the 10th of this month. It is said that 60 participating countries and regions originally wanted to build the project themselves, but only 35 countries have decided on a construction company.
◆The supporting general contractors are struggling with a lack of manpower.
People proceeding with foundation work to construct temporary housing during a snowstorm in Suzu City on the 16th.
Construction of the pavilion will reach its peak in the future. Regarding the impact on earthquake restoration work and subsequent reconstruction, Osaka Prefecture Governor Yoshimura denies it, saying, “It’s completely different work.” Architectural economist Takashi Moriyama said, “There is a view that major general contractors do not compete because they use special materials, comparing restoration work and the construction of Expo pavilions to passenger cars and F1 cars.However, in reality, major general contractors are craftsmen. “Due to the shortage, we are desperately recruiting people. Materials are also being collected with priority given to the Expo, and there is already a shortage of electrical wires for general construction.”
The current situation will be further affected by work style reforms in the construction industry that will begin in April of this year. The cap on overtime work, which had been suspended until now, will now be strictly enforced, which will exacerbate the labor shortage. A number of construction companies are already going bankrupt. According to Teikoku Databank, there were 1,671 construction company bankruptcies last year, about 1.4 times the number from the previous year.
◆“The private market could be destroyed and the disaster-stricken areas could be left neglected.”
Two weeks have passed since the earthquake occurred.In the area where the tsunami hit, collapsed houses and other buildings are left almost untouched. On the 15th, in Hodate-cho, Suzu City, Ishikawa Prefecture.
“If we continue to insist on holding an Expo without grasping the actual state of the construction industry, we may end up ruining the private market and leaving the disaster-stricken areas alone,” Moriyama worries.
Reconstruction will require a huge amount of money. The Great East Japan Earthquake was financed by a special tax reconstruction budget, which amounted to more than 40 trillion yen. In comparison, the national, local, and private sectors will spend approximately 10 trillion yen on maintenance related to the Expo. More than 800 billion yen will be needed just for the costs directly related to the event. Currently, it has not been decided how to make up for the deficit if operating costs go up even further.
◆The amount will be increased immediately for the Expo… “Why are we reluctant to spend money for reconstruction?”
Keidanren Chairman Masakazu Tokura talks about the Osaka Expo and economic trends = November 2023
“If we needed to increase security costs for the Expo, 20 billion yen would be immediately available, but with roads cut off and villages isolated due to this earthquake, general contingency funds of 5,000 yen for fiscal 2021 were raised.
Out of the billion yen, only 4.7 billion yen was decided to be spent. The contingency fund for fiscal 2014 has been doubled to 1 trillion yen, but the way the money is being disbursed and the amount is still terrible,” points out Masaru Kaneko, a visiting professor of public finance at Shukutoku University Graduate School. “I get the impression that they are not seriously thinking about rebuilding the buildings and roads in the disaster-stricken areas.Which is more important, the Expo, which will be held for six months and will be disposable, or reconstruction?Why are they reluctant to spend money for reconstruction? ”
Against this backdrop, voices are beginning to rise calling for the Expo to be postponed. On the 5th, Tsuyoshi Niinami, representative secretary of the Association of Corporate Executives and the vice president of the Japan Association for World Expositions, said in response to the earthquake damage, “Given this situation, the response to the disaster victims should be prioritized above all else.” The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan also issued a statement on the 9th calling for the recovery and reconstruction from the earthquake to be given top priority.
◆The problem is that there is no leader who can make the decision to cancel.
After the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, the government promoted the Tokyo Olympics as the “Recovery Olympics,” but after the postponement due to the new coronavirus, the idea changed to “Olympics as proof that we have overcome the coronavirus,” and efforts are being made to rebuild the disaster-stricken areas. was not connected. This time, Ishin representative Baba said that holding the Expo will bring “dreams and hopes,” suggesting that recovery from the earthquake disaster could once again become the theme of the event.
“I don’t think there is anyone among the disaster victims who would want the Expo to take place or who would agree with us. With this kind of damage, the only option would be to cancel it.” Thinker and professor emeritus of Kobe Jogakuin University Itsuki Uchida makes this appeal. “The problem is that there is no leader, including the casinos that have started, who can make the decision to cancel the event. Continuing to hold the event as it is will cause suffering to the disaster victims.”
◆Desk memo
“The nation’s finances are not managed by one wallet,” said Baba of Ishin. The Expo’s purse and the reconstruction’s purse are two different things, so they should be done in parallel. It’s not a joke. Both wallets originally came from taxes. It would be a good idea to move money from the Expo wallet, which was deemed “unnecessary” by 70% in a public opinion poll last fall, to the reconstruction wallet. (Ayumu)
2024-01-17 03:00:00
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