Analysis by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that about three-quarters of tight monetary policy has affected the U.S. economy.
IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said at a panel meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) on Tuesday (16th): “We must realize that despite raising interest rates, the economy is still very resilient. Our The estimate is that, for the United States, about three-quarters, or 75%, of the effect has been achieved, and the rest will be completed this year.
She said,EURThere are still more effects to be achieved in the region, as interest rate hikes in the region are late.
Since interest rates began rising in March 2022, the U.S. economy has maintained stronger growth than consensus forecasts, even as some strategists predict a possible recession this year. at the same time,EURThe regional economy has stalled; the European Central Bank will only begin to raise interest rates in July 2022.
Gopinath said, “The general fact is; our households and businesses have stronger balance sheets. We have seen the impact, but we have also seen the resilience.”
“The labor market is slowing, but at a much slower pace. That’s why I think the IMF thinks the likelihood of a soft landing has gone up a lot, because inflation has come down without much loss of economic activity,” she said.
François Villeroy de Galhau, President of the Bank of France, noted on the same panel that there are two lagging factors in the transmission: from monetary policy decisions to financial conditions, and from financial conditions to the real economy.
“Regarding the first kind of backwardness, I think the transmission is more or less over,” he said. “In Europe, the key is through the banks. Because as you know, about two-thirds or four-quarters of the bank credit pipeline in Europe is Three-quarters, much more than the United States.”
He added, “What’s more difficult is the second laggard factor, which is much more difficult to assess and very much depends on the individual sectors. If you take real estate as an example, I think most of the pass-through has already occurred because of its impact on interest rates.” Very sensitive. As for other industries, we have to wait and see.”
2024-01-16 14:08:49
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