AnadoluAnti-government protest in Tel Aviv last weekend
Today marks 100 days since Hamas attacked Israel. Since then, almost 24,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israeli counter-reaction in the Gaza Strip. Israel has received strong international criticism for this, but that has not stopped the government from continuing the operation.
The government also receives criticism from Israel itself, but it mainly focuses on the failure to keep the country safe. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in particular is having a hard time and is held partly responsible for Hamas’ attacks. Is this the end of his political career?
‘Unprecedented failure’
The fact that the Israeli security services were completely surprised by the Hamas raid led to harsh reactions on the same day. Experts spoke of “unprecedented failure on many different levels”.
Israel appears to have underestimated Hamas, and the prime minister is mainly blamed for this mistake. “He has always presented himself as the person who would keep Israel safe from Palestinian terrorism or from Iranian nuclear weapons or, as now, from Hamas attacks,” said Michael Koplow, an Israel expert at the American-Jewish Israel Policy Forum. “If you have always said that, and now you are faced with the most serious security crisis ever, then it is difficult to maintain that reputation.”
And the Israelis seem to agree. According to a poll from January 2 only 15 percent of the population wants Netanyahu to remain prime minister after the war.
‘Netanyahu must leave as soon as possible’
But for now there are no elections yet and Netanyahu can remain where he is. “Israelis want him to leave or resign after the war, but now most people don’t want elections yet,” said journalist and political analyst Mazal Mualem. “Netanyahu knows that too.”
Mualem spent years studying Netanyahu and his motivations. She wrote a book about it. Israel’s longest-serving prime minister has often been on the brink of collapse, she says, and he has always managed to survive with political ingenuity.
The best example of this, according to Mualem, is the assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1995. Netanyahu, then opposition leader, was accused of stoking hatred towards Rabin, his left-wing political opponent, in the period leading up to the assassination. Mualem: “After the assassination, Netanyahu plummeted in the polls and could not walk on the streets. His party, Likud, wanted to get rid of him. But he stood his ground. Eight months after the assassination, he managed to defeat Rabin’s successor Shimon Peres.”
Polaris ImagesProtesters in Tel Aviv this weekend calling for the release of Israeli hostages and Netanyahu’s departure
This time the accusations against Netanyahu are even greater. The Israeli population holds him partly responsible for the 1,200 deaths in the Hamas attacks and for the 130 people who are still being held hostage. This weekend there were again large demonstrations calling for both their release and Netanyahu’s departure.
Still, Mualem thinks that Netanyahu’s popularity can increase quickly again. “The group demonstrating against Netanyahu has been the same for years. The general public is more concerned about their children in the army or about themselves. Most people want unity above all.”
Correspondent Nasrah Habiballah:
“Despite the demonstrations and despite Netanyahu’s low popularity ratings, most Israelis support his war strategy. They believe the army must continue to fight to gain more control over the Gaza Strip to free the hostages. The group that says ‘we should stop fighting and make a deal with Hamas as soon as possible’ is in the minority.”
The fact that an end to the war is not yet imminent does not have to be a bad political outcome for Netanyahu, says Israel expert Koplow. “Israelis do not want him to leave in the middle of the war. Only when the war subsides and there is room to talk about the future will his position be at risk. So for him it is necessary never to go to that next phase of to go to war.”
Netanyahu will do everything he can to be re-elected, Mualem agrees. “Netanyahu, as the son of a historian, always keeps in mind how he will be perceived later. He refuses to leave the world stage in this way. He will postpone the elections and run for office again.”
But Mualem does not believe prolonging the war will improve Netanyahu’s chances. “A long war without a clear goal leads to demonstrations. He doesn’t want that. He wants to create a safe situation and present himself as the man who saved Israel in its most difficult moments.”
Koplow cannot imagine that Netanyahu will succeed. “He has permanently lost his self-given nickname ‘Mr. Security’. A political future for him seems hardly conceivable after October 7.”
2024-01-14 21:45:01
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