Hassouna Al-Tayeb (Abu Dhabi)
Envisioning the future outlook for the financial and economic sectors usually seems difficult and fraught with surprises for any coming year.
While the world was surprised in 2020 by the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the year 2022 was no exception, as the Russian-Ukrainian crisis erupted.
As for the current year, 2024, the surprise was divided into two categories: economic and political.
The decline in inflation rates and expectations that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will reduce interest rates may be accompanied by good news during the current year. The shift in this policy resulted in strong activity in the movement of US stocks during the past months of November and December, making the year 2023 the best for the global stock sector since 2019.
On the potential negative level, the effects resulting from monetary policy, as some economic experts are concerned that the monetary tightening policy imposed during the past two years, 2022 and 2023, will have an unpositive impact during the current year, according to the Financial Times.
The big issue this year is whether what the central banks did was right, and whether that was sufficient to limit the rise in inflation, without pushing the economy into a cycle of recession. Alternatively, have inflation drivers become so entrenched that central banks may be forced to tighten policy again over the next year?
Answering these questions is of great importance for British investors and savers, to determine the best ways to allocate their portfolios and achieve profits. Should these investors rely on stocks as their best bet in the long term, or take advantage of the better returns that savings accounts provide at the present time?
The big concerns relate to whether China begins to lose its role as a driving force for the global economy, as it accounted for nearly 50% of global GDP over the past 10 years.
Some analysts believe that residential real estate prices in China are exaggerated and that the Chinese government does not allow these prices to decline, in light of the potential impact on wealth and on ordinary people. Instead, the government may move to reduce the pace of development and construction in the sector, in order to balance supply with deteriorating demand.
Such concerns explain why economists are cautious regarding the outlook for the year 2024. Banks, including Citibank, expect global GDP growth to exceed only 1.9%, while Deutsche expects 2.4%. Numbers that are considered very weak, compared to the levels of the past three decades.
Meanwhile, the US GDP is expected to achieve growth ranging between 1 to 2%, while the growth of its British counterpart does not exceed only 0.7%, during this current year.
Of course, all expectations are not necessarily wrong, as the growth of the American economy was better than expected during the past year. The strength of the labor market also remains a surprise in many parts of the world. Despite its slow growth, the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom remains at only 4.2%, while it has fallen below this rate in America, at 3.7%.
The technology sector plays a pivotal role in the growth of the American economy. The 10 largest stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 constitute approximately 35% of the index, the highest percentage since the dot-com bubble occurred in the year 2000. Among these 10, the largest 6 are: Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, and Meta. , is located in the technology sector, while Tesla is ranked No. 7, thanks to the technologies used in its cars.
40% of US companies included in the Russell 2000 Index recorded a decline in profits, close to global financial crisis levels. In addition, the profits of companies globally, included in the MSCI World Index, did not record any increase during the past year 2023. Revenues also achieved slight growth, exceeding only 1%. Investors have high hopes for this current year, with analysts expecting a global growth in profits of approximately 10%.
Regardless of these concerns, stocks could enjoy a year full of growth. Declining interest rates usually favor stocks, as long as they are not accompanied by a deep recession.
The decline in commodity prices and the slowdown in the Chinese economy also pose a kind of concern for emerging markets. The expected decline in US interest rates during the year 2024 could allow central banks in developing countries to reduce interest rates.
Investors believe that the Federal Reserve can maintain the inflation rate at 2% over the next decade, which means the ability to generate real revenues.
In the United Kingdom, 10-year government bond yields are about 3.7%. If the Bank of England achieves the inflation target of 2%, government bonds are likely to achieve a positive return.
The market may sometimes be derailed by events such as epidemics or wars, which are expected to occur this year, as well as politics, especially with regard to elections in both America and the United Kingdom. In addition, many geopolitical risks are swirling around the world at the moment.
The world is not devoid of such fears, of course, but most of the time it manages to overcome these circumstances. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates several times next year, as expected, consumers should feel more prosperous. All of this should be supported by stock and bond markets.
2024-01-13 20:42:39
#global #investors #expect
