It is expected that artificial intelligence (AI) will cause the Norwegian economy to grow in the coming years.
AI can, among other things, automate a number of tasks that previously required humans, find more efficient solutions and create new products that people will pay for.
But like previous revolutionary technologies, it is also difficult to say exactly how big an effect AI will have on the economy.
NHO has asked Samfunnsökonomisk analise (SØA) to calculate how much value generative artificial intelligence can create for Norway.
Can give KI boost
The report shows that generative AI will be able to create values worth NOK 2,000 billion by 2040. This is in addition to what Norway already produces.
– The most concrete change we get from using generative AI is that we then get value creation on top of what we do otherwise, says NHO director Ole Erik Almelid.
In addition, they calculate that the gains from other digitization of society can create a further NOK 3,600 billion.
In other words, AI and digitization will give Norway 5,600 billion in revenue over the next 16 years, according to the report. This represents 2.3 per cent of all value creation in the entire period.
– On top of that, we will again get an increase in productivity, which will mean that the whole economy will get an improvement in value creation, says Almelid.
Don’t trust the word
Professor of social economics Jo Tore Lind, on the other hand, is skeptical of the talk in the report.
– What they do in the report is that they take a figure quite out of thin air. They say that growth in productivity increases by an extra 1.5 per cent a year if you manage to get generative AI to work, he says and adds:
– It may be a credible number, but it is a bit of a “think of a number” exercise.
– So you wouldn’t put too much faith in their conclusion?
– No, I don’t want that. That figure is far too uncertain. That number may be very high, but one can also think that the number is zero or perhaps negative for that kind of reason.
He believes that one does not have enough knowledge to be able to calculate the financial benefit of KI.
Subject director at Social Economic Analysis Rolf Røtnes.
Photo: Samfunnseconomisk Analyze AS
Subject director at Social Economic Analysis Rolf Røtnes disagrees that the speech was taken “out of thin air”.
– This is the estimate that lies in the middle of the many features that have come out about how generative AI will affect the economy when the technology is fully adopted.
Who is betting on AI growth?
There is not only uncertainty surrounding whether AI will lead to growth, but also who will benefit from such growth.
Economics professor Jo Tore Lind is concerned that AI may lead to increased unemployment in several industries as machines replace humans.
– How much of this fell on ordinary workers or even ordinary small businesses is still very unclear.
He believes, and there is a danger, that AI will not benefit most people, but rather make a few very rich.
– It can quickly turn out that the person who then owns the algorithm, or the person who controls the generative artificial intelligence algorithm, gets a lot of the surplus that is generated.
2024-01-09 07:16:52
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