Housing supply is lowest in 10 years
According to CBRE’s report, regarding housing supply in Hanoi, there are a total of nearly 10,300 apartments and 2,600 new low-rise houses for sale this year, down 32% and 84% respectively compared to 2022. Meanwhile, City. Ho Chi Minh City recorded a more modest supply with more than 8,700 apartments and only nearly 30 new low-rise houses for sale, down 54% and 98% respectively compared to 2022.
Compared to the first half of the year, the number of new launches in the last 6 months of 2023 has improved, especially in the Hanoi apartment market when it recorded an increase of more than 60%. And in the city. In Ho Chi Minh City, new supply in the last six months of the year only improved slightly, up 11% compared to the first six months of 2023. Urban projects in the West and East of Hanoi and in the East area of Ho Chi Minh City. Ho Chi Minh City continues to lead the new supply of the two cities, contributing more than 60% of new housing supply in Hanoi, and nearly 80% of new housing supply in Ho Chi Minh City. HCM this year.
CBRE experts say the housing market will show positive signs in the second half of 2023 (Photo: TN)
Regarding absorption rate, Hanoi and City. Ho Chi Minh City records more than 22,000 housing units sold (including both high-rise and low-rise) in 2023, only approximately half of the number of units sold in 2022. However, the absorption rate begins to record credit. more positive performance in the second half of 2023, thanks to positive moves from investors including the application of preferential policies such as extending payment schedules and high discounts of up to more than 40% for early payment. . Along with positive signals from falling interest rates, homebuyer psychology has improved, contributing to the number of houses sold in the last two quarters of the year increasing by more than 60% in Hanoi and doubling in Ho Chi Minh City. HCM compared to the first half of the year.
Regarding selling prices, the apartment market in both cities is still anchored at a high level, especially in Hanoi, which recorded a trend of rapidly increasing primary prices this year, the main reason being the proportion of open supply supply that has been applied for sale. Island of the high-end segment. Calculated on the total new supply for sale in 2023, the number of high-end apartments accounts for 75% in Hanoi and 84% in City. HCM. On the other hand, the mid-end segment with prices more suitable for the majority of people’s budget only accounts for a small proportion, while the affordable segment has completely disappeared in the two markets in the past few years. .
Low housing supply causes selling prices to skyrocket
Ms. Duong Thuy Dung, Managing Director of CBRE Vietnam, commented that in 2023, the housing markets in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City will change roles when the Hanoi market is following the trend of the Ho Chi Minh City market. .HCM 3 years ago.
Specifically, at the end of 2023, the average primary selling price in Hanoi will reach 53 million VND/m2 (excluding VAT and maintenance fees), an increase of 4.6% quarter-on-quarter and 14.6% year-on-year. . This is also the same price as recorded in Ho Chi Minh City in the period 2020-2021. Meanwhile, the current primary selling price of apartments in Ho Chi Minh City has leveled off and reached more than 61 million VND/m2, down 1.7% compared to 2022 due to the amount of high-end supply but located in remote locations. The center is not well connected and the intermediate supply this year is higher than last year.
In the secondary market, the selling price of apartments in the two markets of Hanoi and City. Ho Chi Minh City recorded contradictory trends. Selling prices in Hanoi in the fourth quarter of 2023 continued to increase from previous quarters, reaching an average of 33 million VND/batch and equivalent to an increase of 5% year-on-year.
The average housing price in Hanoi in 2023 will increase by 14.6% compared to 2022 (Photo: TN)
“Supply remains limited, while new projects launched for sale with high prices have contributed to boosting demand in the secondary apartment market in Hanoi to be more vibrant. In contrast, secondary selling prices in the city HCMC recorded 45 million VND/m2 for the apartment market and 140 million VND/m2 for the low-rise housing market, down 5% and 2% respectively compared to 2022. Secondary market in Ho Chi Minh City There will be price adjustments throughout 2023, but the price reduction has gradually decreased in the last quarter of the year,” Ms. Dung shared.
The real estate market attached to land in Hanoi also recorded a similar situation, with the number of loss-making listings in the secondary market gradually decreasing since the second half of this year, leading to a gradual decrease in secondary selling prices. back to the end of the year. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the average secondary selling price of low-rise real estate in Hanoi reached nearly 157 million VND/m2, equivalent to a decrease of 5% year-on-year.
In 2024, new housing supply is expected to grow again. In Hanoi, the market is expected to record nearly 16,000 apartments and more than 6,000 new low-rise houses for sale, most coming from urban projects in the West and East of the city.
And in the city. In Ho Chi Minh City, housing supply is expected to remain limited, receiving more than 9,000 apartments and 1,000 low-rise houses respectively. In the short term, supply continues to be limited, while strong demand will cause selling prices to continue to be anchored at high levels.
Looking at the market prospects in the near future, CBRE experts said that interest rates are on the path to stabilization again, while policy and legal factors are on the roadmap for revision and approval. , ensuring synchronization and consistency will contribute to improved market confidence, thereby helping the market recover in 2024.
