In March, on the eve of the halving, there may be a sale in Bitcoin. Analysts came to this conclusion Matrixport.
According to calculations by experts, the average profitability of digital gold in the years when the reward for miners was halved (2012, 2016, and 2020) is 17%. This confirms their January 2024 goal of $50,000: $42,265 as of December 31 + 17%.
In the future, experts expect a reversal and correction of 14%, to $36,350.
“This is why we worry about early fake growth” – they admitted.
Below is the average monthly dynamics of Bitcoin during the halving years.
Data: Matrixport.
The specialists reported that one of the indicators they use turned bearish for the first time since August 2023. He warned of a 7% decline over the next two weeks. This signal indicates the risks of failure of a breakout attempt [сопротивления]which could lead to a rapid price reversal, analysts explained.
Data: Matrixport.
Experts noted insufficient hedging by traders – implied volatility for a contract with expiration on January 12 and a strike of $40,000 increased to 100%.
According to their calculations, the market expects price fluctuations of 7.8% up or down in the context of the projected SEC approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF on January 10. In other words, the rate of the first cryptocurrency during the week will be in the range from $40,600 to $47,400, according to the options market.
Data: Matrixport.
Analysts drew attention to the fall in the funding rate at an annualized rate of 2-7% from the “unacceptable” peak of 66% at the beginning of the year. They recalled that in 2023 the parameter was 5–10% and in December jumped to 25% before the subsequent rally.
Data: Matrixport.
According to experts, technically Bitcoin looks vulnerable. They noted that approval of a digital gold spot ETF could lead to profit-taking. Due to the reduction in leverage, the effect may be limited.
“We remain constructive for 2024. It’s worth noting that Bitcoin tends to retrace resistance levels, with the exception of the $36,000 to $38,000 range, which may be retested.” – the experts concluded.
Data: Matrixport.
Let us recall that macrostrategist Henrik Zeberg predicted “fantastic” growth of the crypto market, during which the rate of digital gold will reach $150,000.
Earlier, Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano warned that the launch of the tool would not double the price of the first cryptocurrency overnight.
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2024-01-08 15:28:04
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