The job market in the United States has long been very dynamic. But there are signs of slowing down. What happens next also depends on the decisions of the US Federal Reserve.
The U.S. job market is showing signs of slowing. The number of job vacancies, which is used to measure demand for workers, has declined recently. This key figure, also important for the Federal Reserve, fell to 8.79 million at the end of November, as announced by the Ministry of Labor in its monthly survey (Jolts). Experts expected 8.85 million. At the same time, the previous month’s figure was revised upwards from 8.73 million initially announced to 8.85 million.
The government’s labor market report for December is due Friday. Experts expect an increase of 168,000 jobs, after 199,000 in November.
The American Federal Reserve wants to fight inflation through a strict monetary policy and calm the booming labor market. Since the start of 2022, it has raised key interest rates from near zero to a range of 5.25 to 5.50 percent and recently suspended them three times in a row.
Interest rate cuts expected in the near future
At the same time, the monetary authorities announced an easing of their monetary policy for 2024, taking into account the ebb of the inflation wave. This triggered euphoria about falling interest rates in financial markets, which eased somewhat at the start of the year.
Investors, however, expect a drop in interest rates twice as large as that announced by the American monetary authorities, who forecast a drop of 0.75 percentage points this year. According to financial market expectations, the Fed should remain silent in January.
For the month of March, the probability of a first interest rate cut of a quarter percentage point is estimated at around 67 percent in the futures markets. Investors hope that the minutes of the latest Fed meeting will provide information on future developments.
2024-01-06 20:36:42
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