On Friday at 2.30pm, we got an answer to how many new jobs outside agriculture were created in the US in December, so-called “non-farm payrolls”.
According to Trading Economics, 216,000 more people entered the workforce, against the expected 175,000.
As a result, 2.7 million more people were employed last year.
Effect on the krone?
At 11 o’clock on Friday, one euro cost 11.27 kroner and one dollar 10.33 kroner. At 2:30 p.m., one euro costs 11.31 and one dollar costs 10.36.
The Norwegian krone weakened immediately after the news: One euro now costs 11.35 and one dollar 10.41.
Since Norges Bank’s interest rate meeting on 14 December, the krone has steadily strengthened.
– Bad news for the krone
– The krone against the dollar has weakened by five cents since the news came out, says analyst Dane Cekov in Nordea Markets to Nettavisen.
– The Norwegian krone will probably continue to weaken over the next few days.
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– How surprised are you?
– A little surprised, even though the American economy has been doing well lately, he replies.
– This is bad news for everyone who is going out and travelling, adds the strategist.
– Inflation figures decide
Cekov believes the figures speak for there not being an imminent interest rate cut in the US, but next week’s inflation figures will be decisive:
– In the short picture, this is bad news for the krone – it will be very exciting with the inflation figures coming this week, says Cekov.
Statistics Norway (SSB) will release its inflation figures on Wednesday.
“The world’s most important numbers”
DNB Markets expected an increase of 200,000, according to their morning report.
According to chief economist Kjersti Haugland, this is about “the world’s most important key figures”:
“Given the cooling feet of market players, the figures have great potential to have significant market effects today. If employment growth were to be as we think (increase of 200,000), or stronger, the rise in interest rates could accelerate further,” she writes.
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However, should the opposite happen:
“An outcome below the consensus (174,000), on the other hand, can cause interest rates to recoil downwards. It is also expected that unemployment, which surprisingly fell by two-tenths in November, will rise again by one-tenth, to 3.8 percent.”
2024-01-05 13:26:51
#Fresh #figures #bad #news #krone
