(Central News Agency Beijing/Hong Kong comprehensive foreign news report on the 3rd) Reuters reported that no matter who wins the high-profile presidential election in Taiwan, the arms race across the Taiwan Strait, and China’s military pressure on its so-called “sacred and indivisible” territory , are unlikely to end.
The report said China has set the tone for Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections on January 13 as a choice between war and peace, and warned that any attempt to promote Taiwan’s formal independence would mean conflict.
Before the election, China focused its dissatisfaction against Lai Qingde, the presidential candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and current Vice President, and flatly rejected his call for negotiations.
China’s state-run Global Times reported last month that Wang Zaixi, a retired major general of the People’s Liberation Army and deputy director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of China from 2000 to 2006, said Lai “is a stubborn radical Taiwan independence activist.”
Wang Zaixi said: “If he takes office, the possibility of military conflict between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait cannot be ruled out. We must be fully aware of this.”
Such a development could have serious geopolitical and economic consequences, triggering a confrontation between the two major military powers the United States and China, blocking key shipping routes, and disrupting semiconductor and commodity supply chains.
“I think they will take tougher action to try to warn the new president about his future policy toward China,” Li Ximing, Taiwan’s retired navy admiral and former deputy defense minister, told Reuters.
Western security officials are trying to judge the extent of China’s possible military response to the election results.
Western officials who declined to be named pointed out that the Beijing authorities may wait and see, and any drastic reaction may not occur until after the new president’s inauguration speech on May 20.
The Western official said that if the DPP wins the presidential election but does not have a majority of seats in the Legislative Yuan, weakening the DPP’s ability to pass bills, China’s response may be moderated.
China’s Ministry of National Defense, which accuses Taiwan of deliberately “hyping up mainland elections,” did not respond to Reuters’ request for comment.
Sun Lifang, spokesman for Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, told reporters that the assessment of China’s movements does not differ depending on whether there is an election. “We will study various signs and enemy situations as the basis for our judgment,” he said.
At the same time, Taiwan is also strengthening its defense capabilities. Another Western security official said that China is well aware that they are waiting every year to “solve the Taiwan issue” and this also gives Taiwan the opportunity to further strengthen its defense, adding: “This is not good for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.”
National defense issues have become a major focus of this election campaign. No matter who wins the election, Taiwan will make large-scale arms purchases from the United States.
In the next few years, Taiwan is expected to acquire advanced U.S.-made weapons such as F-16V fighter jets, M-1A tanks, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, and High Mobility Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (HIMARS).
Although China’s military strength is obviously stronger, the generals of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force, Navy, Air Force, and even the Minister of Defense have all been eliminated in a recent wave of purges, which may reduce the risk of conflict.
“The more problems they have and the more corruption they have, the better it is for us,” Li said. “I don’t think there will be a full-scale invasion in the next few years because they have their own problems.”
In the past week or so, Chinese President Xi Jinping has reiterated the need to “unify” Taiwan in two speeches, without mentioning the use of force. However, the Beijing authorities have never announced that they will give up this possibility.
China may also exert economic pressure on Taiwan after the election, targeting the trade agreement signed between the two sides in 2010. Beijing has officially determined that Taiwan’s trade restrictions against China constitute “trade barriers.” China may also escalate its united front work through the United Front Work Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China to influence the Taiwanese people.
Wu Xinbo, a professor at Fudan University in Shanghai, said: “China must be able to dominate and control the situation in Taiwan. We use a variety of means to do so, not just one method.” (Translator: He Hongru/Verification: Chen Yanjun) 1130103
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Taiwan’s election is about to take place Reuters: No matter who is elected, the Communist Party’s pressure will be tougher
2024-01-03 14:23:40
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