Krungsri Bank Looking at the baht this week, trading in the range of 34.00-34.65 baht per dollar. Ready to wait to see US employment numbers and the Fed meeting report during this period. Last Dec.
Global Markets Group Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited assesses the baht to welcome the new year in the first week of the year as The baht tends to move in the range of 34.00-34.65 baht/dollar compared to last week. The baht closed stronger at 34.19 baht/dollar after trading in the range of 34.11- 34.73 baht/dollar in the week-end of the year. Meanwhile, the baht reached its strongest level in five months. The dollar weakened against most major currencies last week. The dollar index depreciated 2.1% in 2023, which was the first year of decline since the 2020 Covid crisis.
Meanwhile, the market is increasingly speculating about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cut trend in 2024, with futures contracts reflecting that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps for the first time in March. and will reduce interest rates by approximately 150 bps by the end of this year.
The euro rose 3.0% as pressure on energy prices eased compared with a year earlier when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. As for the yen, it depreciated by 7.6% in 2023 because the Japanese authorities still showed reluctance to adjust monetary policy. In contrast to other leading central banks that continued to raise interest rates in the first half of the year. However, the yen dropped significantly into the negative period in December. While the market expects the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is close to making a decision to end the extremely accommodative policy. In 2023, the baht strengthened by 1.0%. Foreign investors sold Thai stocks and bonds for a net amount of 192,490 million baht and 146,148 million baht, respectively, last year.
For this week’s overview Krungsri’s Global Markets Group revealed that the market will follow important US economic data such as employment, as well as the minutes of the Fed meeting on December 12-13. Meanwhile, the dollar’s depreciation accelerated in the final quarter of 2023 on expectations that the Fed would be the first major central bank to start cutting interest rates. If data indicates that inflation continues to slow at the beginning of the year The market will find it increasingly difficult for the Fed to hold policy tight for a long time. Incidentally, other issues Led by the Chinese economic climate and geopolitical risks affecting shipping costs for developing countries, this could also limit dollar selling pressure.
As for domestic factors Investors will pay attention to the December 2023 Consumer Price Index. Meanwhile, Thailand had a current account deficit of 1.2 billion dollars in November 2023. The BoT commented that the economy would continue to grow. and has more complete economic momentum Overall, it is expected that in 2024 uncertainty will remain high both from inside and outside the country.
2024-01-02 06:14:00
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