Four reasons why Erik ten Hag has not yet been fired from Manchester United
Monday, January 1, 2024 at 10:30 PM
After Manchester United’s defeat at Nottingham Forest (2-1), the pressure on manager Erik ten Hag has increased further. It was already the fourteenth loss for the 53-year-old coach. Yet it does not appear that Ten Hag will be fired in the short term. Voetbalzone, together with colleagues from GOAL (both part of the Footballco group), lists four reasons.
Manchester United’s season has already been riddled with many low points, with the catastrophic home defeat against Bournemouth (0-3) being one of the most painful. To make matters worse, the calendar year ended last Saturday with a 2-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest. The Red Devils’ supporters learned long ago that the mantra ‘things can only get better’ is a total lie and that things can always get worse, and often do.
Ten Hag after the 2-1 defeat against Nottingham Forest.
Ten Hag saw his team lose 2-0 to West Ham United just before Christmas, after which a miraculous comeback was completed against Aston Villa at Old Trafford on Boxing Day. The Mancunians turned a 0-2 deficit after halftime into a 3-2 win.
Last Saturday’s defeat against Forest will therefore hit extra hard. Midfielder Christian Eriksen expressed his disappointment to the BBC afterwards. “We took one step forward this season and then took two steps back.” United lost no fewer than nine of the twenty games played this Premier League season. In all competitions, Ten Hag’s team was defeated no fewer than fourteen times.
It is the first time United have lost so many games in a first half of the season since 1930/31, when they finished bottom of the old English First Division. Most managers who have had such a terrible season as the current one would have been fired long ago, but Ten Hag’s job somehow remains safe for the time being.
Fans can’t bear it anymore
United supporters pride themselves on not turning on their players as quickly as other fans of English clubs do, but images of supporters leaving Old Trafford or away matches early are starting to become common this season.
When Marcos Senesi headed home Bournemouth’s third goal in the 73rd minute of their shock win at Old Trafford in early December, thousands of disgruntled United supporters immediately sought the exit of the stadium, prompting the visiting Bournemouth fans to joyfully chant: ” Is this a fire drill?” By the time the final whistle blew, there were hardly any Manchester United supporters left at Old Trafford.
Eriksen is becoming despondent about Manchester United’s season.
And after Mohammed Kudus recently scored West Ham’s second goal at the London Stadium in the 78th minute, dozens of accompanying fans began to leave the away section. Who can blame them for wanting to take a break from the nightmare that was unfolding before their eyes? It was not the first time this season that their team let them down.
There is no impregnable fortress left
The loss at West Ham – made more painful by the fact it was against former United manager David Moyes – was United’s sixth away defeat of the season in all competitions. The Red Devils have not yet defeated a top nine team away from home under Ten Hag this season. The statistics at Old Trafford are even worse.
United lost seven games at Old Trafford. In five of these matches, André Onana conceded three goals. United has conceded the first goal in seven of its ten home games, leaving United behind only Sheffield United.
The miserable home form of the Ten Hag team is in stark contrast to last season, when Old Trafford turned into an impregnable fortress again. 27 games in a row were won. Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham and Barcelona, among others, had to deal with it.
History repeats itself
United have lost nine of their 20 league games this season, three more than Jose Mourinho and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer lost when they were sacked in December 2018 and November 2021 respectively.
The point totals are also quite comparable. Ten Hag has lost an average of 1.5 points per game, compared to Mourinho’s 1.5 and Solskjaer’s 1.4. Louis van Gaal was averaging 1.7 points per game when he was sacked at the end of the 2015/16 season, despite winning the FA Cup with the Mancunians at the time.
Mourinho and Solskjaer performed similarly to Ten Hag at United and were fired.
United are currently eighth, two places lower than when Mourinho was sacked and one lower than Solskjaer and David Moyes when they were given their leave. And unlike his three predecessors, Ten Hag does not have encouraging results in the Champions League to fall back on. Mourinho and Solskjaer managed to guide United to the knockout stages before being sent packing, while Moyes even reached the quarter-finals. Ten Hag and his players finished at the bottom of a group with Bayern Munich, FC Copenhagen and Galatasaray, meaning United is ready in Europe after the winter break.
Glazers still on the Ten Hag side
So why hasn’t Ten Hag been fired yet? Despite the alarming recent results, the coach from Haaksbergen still has the support of United’s current club management. It is a situation very different from that of Mourinho, whose relationship with then general manager Ed Woodward deteriorated when he failed to gain support in the transfer market in the summer of 2018.
Club owners Joel and Avram Glazer have entrusted Ten Hag to lead a cultural reset after years of declining standards and increased player power. In justifying his decision to ban Jadon Sancho from the squad in September for speaking out against him on social media, Ten Hag revealed he had been encouraged to enforce discipline.
“It’s all about strict rules,” said Ten Hag. “It’s what the club asked me to do because there wasn’t a good culture before last season. So to set some good standards, and that’s what I did.”
The lack of discipline was recently exposed by Nemanja Matic, the Serbian who was under contract with United between 2017 and 2022. The now 35-year-old defender of Stade Rennes revealed to the French YU Planet that Sancho and Paul Pogba, among others, were structurally late for training at the English top club.
Ten Hag decided to ban Jadon Sancho from the selection at the beginning of this season.
Ten Hag has made it his mission to restore norms and values at United. The leaked rumors that the Dutch manager has lost the support of 50 percent of the dressing room suggests he has not quite accomplished that task yet. On the other hand, the fact that the club management’s response to those leaks was to temporarily ban the journalists who published the stories from press conferences indicates that they still support him.
United still in uncertainty despite INEOS deal
The fact that it took more than a year for the club’s strategic review to be resolved also worked to Ten Hag’s advantage. Sir Jim Ratcliffe, the chairman of the INEOS group, invested no less than 1.49 billion euros to acquire 25 percent of the shares from the Glazer family. However, it took more than two months for the deal to be confirmed by the club.
Ratcliffe and a team of specialists will take care of the sporting policy at United, while the Glazers will focus on the commercial side. However, the deal must first be approved by regulators, including the Premier League. So despite the relief that the deal has finally been confirmed, the club still remains in limbo until it gets the green light. The Premier League formalities to approve the deal will take at least eight weeks.
Sir Jim Ratcliffe will implement the new sporting policy at United in early 2024.
Jean-Claude Blanc, the CEO of INEOS Sport who has been described as the Lionel Messi of the sports business, and technical director Sir Dave Brailsford will join United’s board. If they do that, Ten Hag’s position will be even more at risk.
Interim CEO Patrick Stewart did not have the authority to fire a manager, but Brailsford and Blanc did. Ineos already owns a renowned football club in the French Ligue 1 with OGC Nice. The group was known for taking quick action at Les Aiglons in the past, firing four managers after taking over Nice in 2019. Further decline from United will not be accepted.
However, there are reports that Ratcliffe and his INEOS colleagues have great respect for Ten Hag, who they met when they visited the club in March. That perception may have changed due to the poor results and it is rumored that they would consider appointing Graham Potter or Julen Lopetegui if results do not improve soon. However, it is unlikely that they will fire Ten Hag once they have the keys to the club.
As United discovered when they sacked Solskjaer in November 2021 and eventually appointed Ralf Rangnick as interim boss, you are left with too few options to find a top coach in the middle of a season compared to the summer. In the long term, INEOS may want a manager of their own choosing. The pressure on Ten Hag has only increased further due to the disappointing results, but it seems unlikely that firing him will be at the top of their to-do list.
Previous achievements
Ten Hag’s impressive track record as a manager also gives him time. The coach made a name for himself worldwide by reaching the semi-finals of the Champions League with Ajax in 2019. Ten Hag did this with eye-catching football in an era when Ajax dominated in its own country. After his departure and that of technical director Marc Overmars, the Amsterdam team finds itself in a seemingly endless free fall.
Ten Hag was extremely successful at Ajax.
Ten Hag’s first season at United was a great success. By winning the EFL Cup the club captured a trophy for the first time in six years. In addition, the final of the FA Cup was reached and United finished third in the Premier League.
Despite his difficult second season at Old Trafford, Ten Hag is still seen as a top manager who would be highly sought after if fired by United. The same cannot be said of Solskjaer. The Norwegian coach has not started a new job since his forced departure from United.
No money to fire him
There are also rumors that the club is in such poor financial circumstances that they may not be able to afford to fire Ten Hag even if they wanted to. The manager has a contract until the summer of 2025 and reportedly receives a generous salary of 9 million pounds, approximately 10.4 million euros. Sacking him could therefore cost the club around €19 million, and United would then have to spend even more money on recruiting a successor.
It’s no secret that United are struggling financially. They have had to rely on a credit facility to finance transfers and have generated very little income from player sales in recent years. Romelu Lukaku, who left for Inter for 74 million euros in the summer of 2019, has even been the only real financial hit.
Because United recently failed to qualify for the knockout phase of the Champions League and is no longer active in Europe after the winter break, it missed out on even more premiums. Unlike previous years, United cannot spend a lot of money in the search for a new manager. And while Ratcliffe’s arrival will initially boost the club’s finances, it will not change the fact that the club is teetering on the edge of profitability and the Premier League’s Financial Fair Play rules.
2024-01-01 21:30:00
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