In order for our expectations to be closer to reality for what the state of the Jordanian economy might be like in the new year 2024, we must point out:
*First: The most important “ongoing and anticipated” events and the extent of their impact on the Jordanian economy:
1 – The continuation of the war of aggression against Gaza: which does not appear to be stopping in the near future, despite all the world’s calls for an immediate halt to this criminal war, and the situation after about three months of this war indicates more killing of innocent children, women and civilians, and comprehensive destruction of infrastructure, This war has devastating economic repercussions for the two economies (the Israeli and the Palestinian) in the first place, and negative effects on economic sectors, most notably tourism in the countries closest to this war (Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt), and repercussions on the regional and global economies after the development of events in Bab al-Mandab… which It has begun to affect the movement of shipping, global trade, supply chains, and the movement of navigation in the Suez Canal, and portends the danger of the war expanding to other regions. All of this has repercussions on the prices of oil, insurance, shipping, and commodities, and other matters that certainly affect the Jordanian economy.
2 – The continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war: and its repercussions on supplies, grains, trade, and other matters that are not – as it seems – expected to be resolved during the year 2024.
3 – American elections: next November. The year 2024 is the year of the American elections, and in this year many political and economic matters change at the world level, which awaits the results of those elections, which change the direction of the policies of most countries due to the strength of the influence of the United States on everything that happens. Globally politically and economically.
4 – Global inflation: Most global indicators say that inflation rates in 2024, although lower – in most countries – than in 2023, are still below the “target rates,” specifically in the United States, and therefore inflation rates will remain very influential on the world’s economies this year, in addition. There are increases in debt rates, and fears of increases in major commodities, most notably (oil and wheat).
* Second: Jordan…the most prominent expectations…and how do we face them?
-The most important developments and expected changes in 2024:
1 – If our economy has succeeded in recovering from the repercussions of the 2020 Corona pandemic and the repercussions of the 2022 Russian-Ukrainian war, then today it is affected by the repercussions of the war of aggression against Gaza and the tourism sector in particular, and perhaps the economy will be more affected as a result of what is happening in Bab al-Mandab, and therefore there must be alternatives and scenarios to confront any Variables or developments in the regional and global scene.
2 – The year 2024 is the year of “parliamentary elections” in Jordan, which are expected in the summer of this year. They are the first elections that will be held in accordance with the new election and party laws, as one of the fruits of the political reform system, and the elections have a positive impact on the economy.
3 – The Jordanian economy begins this year with a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund worth ($1.2 billion) for the next four years (2024-2028) after Jordan succeeded in the “sixth” and “seventh” reviews during the year 2023.
4 – Jordan enters the year with a “realistic” budget – unless emergency matters occur – that assumes achieving growth rates of 2.7% and an inflation rate of 2.6%, so that the permanent challenge in the budget remains: the budget deficit + high debt + the challenge of high rates of poverty and unemployment, and it is expected that With the development of events in the region, there will be challenges in achieving the budget assumptions, specifically in revenues, with the decline of highly relied upon sectors, such as tourism and industrial exports, with the rise in shipping and export costs.
5 – The year 2024 is supposed to be the “year of major projects” locally and regionally… foremost among which are: the national carrier project – the electrical interconnection project with Iraq – and the economic zone project between Jordan and Iraq.
6 – Despite the decline in reliance on external grants in the 2024 budget (a total of 724 million dinars), Jordan depends until the year 2029 on American aid (599 million dinars in 2024), and it is supposed to benefit from what was signed at the end of the year 2023 (3 memorandums with the Emirates The sister Arab League, with an investment volume of 6 billion dinars, and the signing of an aid package with the European Union in the size of (902 million euros).
7 – The year 2024 is supposed to be the year of achieving “tangible results” of the economic modernization vision and the public sector development map, assuming that the first year of 2023 was the year of establishing, organizing, and launching the two executive programs for the “economic and administrative” reform visions.
8 – Attracting investments will not be easy in light of regional circumstances, so a greater effort must be made and the role of our embassies abroad, Jordanian expatriates, and local investor incentives must be activated.
9 – The year 2024 must be the year of (real partnership with the private sector) and (support for our national industries), especially the priority sectors, including (tourism, agriculture, industry, energy, mining, entrepreneurship and technology), in order to achieve achievements that will bring us closer to (self-reliance).
10 – The world is moving towards a green economy, and we must be proactive in achieving tangible results that compensate for the economy’s losses in some sectors.
“the Constitution”
2023-12-31 21:03:54
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