Jakarta (ANTARA) – Bloomberg calls 2023 the hottest year in the last three decades, due to 183 conflicts that occurred so far this year.
The Russia-Ukraine war which will last two months in the next two months, and the Gaza War will of course be the biggest conflict this year.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive apparently did not achieve the desired results.
But Russia has also lost a lot, even facing the uprising of the Wagner Group mercenaries led by Yevgeny Prigozhin who later died in a plane crash, and making its neutral neighbor, Finland, enter the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) on April 4 2023.
The good news is that stalemate on the battlefield sometimes forces conflict parties to enter the negotiating table to find a peaceful solution, even though it may be too difficult for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the Gaza War, which was the longest Israeli-Palestinian war after the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, was going all-out, endangering the Middle East region and the world.
But once again, when the ugliness and negative impacts become greater, the conflict in the Gaza Strip could finally end at the negotiating table, although it may take a long time.
Local conflicts also broke out during this year, especially in Africa.
In Sudan, the official Sudanese armed forces (SAF) are led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia under General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo clashed last April, threatening the stability of the Horn of Africa and the Sahel region.
Not long after that, a coup rocked Niger in July which was followed a month later by the Gabon coup, thus threatening the stability of West Africa, and Africa as a whole.
In the Caucasus, on the border of Asia and Europe, conflict has erupted again between the Azerbaijani government and the Armenian ethnic minority in Nagorno Karabakh.
But this time Azerbaijan’s military operations on 19 and 20 September 2023 effectively ended the so-called Republic of Artsakh when their leader, Samvel Shahramanyan, signed the dissolution of the separatist republic which took effect on 1 January 2024.
In Southeast Asia, a major reversal occurred in Myanmar, when the junta led by General Min Aung Hlaing suffered heavy defeats on various battle fronts.
This reversal not only puts the junta on the verge of falling, but also worries Myanmar’s neighbors, especially China and Thailand, who envision a scenario of a flood of refugees and territorial violations by Myanmar’s conflicting parties.
In the South China Sea, the Philippines suddenly took a tougher position towards China shortly after the regime changed from the pro-China Rodrigo Duterte to the pro-United States Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
This conflict also puts ASEAN’s credibility at risk, especially because countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam think that ASEAN has not helped them much in stopping China’s aggressiveness in the South China Sea.
Maritime tensions also occur in East Asia and the East China Sea, between Taiwan, the US, Japan and South Korea on the one hand, and China, Russia and North Korea on the other, as well as involving Australia and the UK.
Also a year of peace and inclusiveness
Even all these conflicts do not destroy the chances of peace, which may be achieved in 2024, especially because all parties realize that a prolonged war will only bring misery to a world that has not yet fully recovered from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, supply chain crisis and waves of inflation.
The year 2023 itself will be filled with various breakthroughs in cooperation and peace, from the framework of the G20 Group, BRICS, to the 28th Global Climate Conference (COP28).
On August 24 at a summit in South Africa which was also attended by Indonesian President Joko Widodo, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), became more inclusive after agreeing to invite Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, Argentina and the United Arab Emirates, become a new member of this block starting January 1, 2024.
This bloc might be able to balance the G7 Group, from geoeconomics to geopolitics, including in relation to the status of the US dollar as a world currency.
Then, on September 10, a big step was taken by the G20, chaired by India this year, by making this forum even more inclusive after including the African Union as a new member.
G20 India 2023 also pledged to form a Global Biofuel Alliance for global sustainability and clean energy. Biofuel producers and consumers, such as Brazil, India and the United States, have agreed to work together to expand cooperation with all countries interested in developing this green energy.
This G20 breakthrough is in line with the results of the Climate Change Summit (COP28) which, for the first time in the last thirty years, recommended efforts to fight addiction to fossil fuels which are the main cause of global warming and environmental degradation.
COP28 also recommends wider use of environmentally friendly energy.
This pledge can encourage the creation of economic and political governance, even a global lifestyle, that promotes green energy and is environmentally responsible, and leaves behind dependence on fossil fuels.
Peace breakthroughs also occurred at the bilateral level, especially when Iran and Saudi Arabia, which had previously been fighting for influence in the Middle East and even covertly fought wars in Syria, Yemen and Iraq, agreed to normalize diplomatic relations.
Under Chinese mediation last March, the governments of Riyadh and Tehran agreed to restore diplomatic relations which had been damaged due to political and ideological rivalry.
This easing of tensions has helped facilitate peace in several regions, including between the Saudis and the Houthis in Yemen, which has caused the Yemenis to stop fighting each other.
Meanwhile in Southeast Asia, Indonesia ended its ASEAN chairmanship by issuing a declaration emphasizing ASEAN’s centrality in viewing and responding to all regional problems. This could be a further step in integrating ASEAN.
With cooperation throughout this year, even though war is raging everywhere, the world should welcome 2024 with optimism for continued cooperation and greater peace. This optimism should remain present amid major political events in the US and Russia next year as President Joe Biden and President Vladimir Putin each face elections, which could push the world against global cooperation.
Let’s hope that these changes will bring the world closer to peace and cooperation, both bilateral and international. Just 2023 will be a year full of conflict.
2023-12-31 13:20:14
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