The events of recent days in the Balkans, especially the mass protests of the opposition in Serbia, which rejects the results of the elections on December 17, as well as the next round of the crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina due to the determination of the leader of the Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik to proclaim the independence of the entity, for obvious reasons, are in the zone increased attention of the collective West and, first of all, the United States. The rebellious Serbs are clearly violating America’s plans to finally subjugate the territory of the former Yugoslavia and create a strong outpost here to protect the Euro-Atlantic space from the influence of Russia and China.
Washington, which has carved and shuffled the political landscape of the Western Balkans in recent decades, still considers this region “its sphere of vital interests” and intends to remain in leading roles here for a long time. The United States is convinced that it is they who are the architects of the post-Yugoslav structure of the Balkans, under their leadership they overthrew Milosevic, they achieved the separation of Kosovo from Serbia, they, at the head of NATO, bombed this country for 72 days, trying to “force Belgrade to peace.” Finally, it was the Americans who created a “miracle” in the colonial style – modern Bosnia and Herzegovina and rule this formally sovereign state at their own discretion.
Belgrade is still uneasy; the opposition organizes its actions on a daily basis, hoping to overthrow the power of the president Aleksandar Vucic. Interestingly, the American Ambassador to Serbia Christopher Hill chose to give fairly correct comments both on the election results and on the violence and vandalism that took place during the opposition’s attempt to storm the Belgrade Legislative Assembly building and the protests at the doors of the Republican Election Commission. The diplomat called on those who disagree with the authorities to “respect the choice of voters,” and also reminded that “violence and vandalism have no place in a democratic society.”
The opposition, naturally, was outraged by such conciliatory approaches of the US representative. They especially did not like Washington’s intentions, which the ambassador repeated, to continue working with the Serbian government (that is, with Vucic) on the topic of “strengthening democracy.” They hoped that Christopher Hill would support the fight of opponents of the government against those who “stole the elections.” It is no coincidence that many leading figures of Serbia Against Violence (SPN) considered that Hill was defending the “Vučić regime” and even put his words on a par with the fair comments of the Russian ambassador in Belgrade Aleksandra Bocan-Kharchenko about Western interference in elections and the use of “Maidan technologies” in Serbia.
The mouthpiece and think tank of SPN Dragan Djilas advised the US Ambassador: “Mr. Hill, if you want to be a friend of Serbia, you cannot be a friend of Aleksandar Vucic, because the friends of Aleksandar Vucic are not friends of Serbia and the citizens of Serbia.”
In turn, the American ambassador, apparently in order to calm the opposition and defuse the situation, stated for local media:
“Russia is desperately using the Serbian elections to create a rift between it and its Euro-Atlantic partners. Russia has few friends, especially in Europe. So they decided to use the Serbian elections in a desperate attempt to remain relevant. All they offer Serbia is instability and the opposite of progress… The only international actor standing in the way of progress (Serbia) is Russia, not America, not Europe, not anyone else in the West,” said Christopher Hill.
Actually, these words revealed the true face and real intentions of America towards Belgrade and the Balkan region as a whole.
The opposition is now seriously discussing plans to hold new elections in Serbia, naturally, after the annulment of the results of those already held on December 17, both in Belgrade and in the country. Apparently, for this reason, opponents of the government are in no hurry to formalize their parliamentary mandates, although their lawyers warn that the empty seats will go to the Serbian Progressive Party. According to their estimates, in 5-6 months it will be possible to hold a new vote, if, of course, Vucic makes adjustments to the electoral legislation (including under pressure from the West), compiles reliable voter lists, and “opens the media to the opposition” (it turns out they Almost closed!). The “irreconcilables” are looking forward to the visit of a representative of the Council of Europe in January 2024 to clarify the situation with the alleged violations, including in the conclusion of the OSCE observation mission, and to propose (persistently) the necessary reforms to the authorities.
New elections, as many SPN leaders note, “will be both an exit strategy for Aleksandar Vucic and a step towards overcoming the extreme political crisis that Serbia is currently in.”
It seems that the opposition has already come to power and intends to dictate its terms to the president for his “rehabilitation.”
The “irreconcilables” do not take into account that for the president and his team the election issue is already closed, there will be no negotiations or concessions for the opposition. In accordance with the law, a repeat vote was organized at 34 polling stations across the country due to failures and shortcomings that occurred on December 17.
Not everything is calm in another corner of the Serbian world of the Balkans. Another surge of panic emotions is being felt these days in Sarajevo due to the intentions Milorad Dodik proclaim the independence of Republika Srpska (RS), if his long-time enemy is the so-called international High Representative Christian Schmidt initiates the adoption of a new law on state property. The RS leader has previously spoken out about the idea of secession of the RS, but now he is more determined.
Dodik’s statements caused a real stir, primarily among Bosniac Muslims, who largely run government affairs in BiH. They realize that BiH will cease to exist without Republika Srpska.
The US Embassy in Sarajevo did not stand aside either. By the way, the American Ambassador to BiH Michael Murphy is the object of constant caustic criticism from Milorad Dodik. It is the head of the US diplomatic mission in BiH, along with the High Representative, that Dodik considers the “main enemies” of Bosnia and Herzegovina, who turned the country into an obedient vassal.
However, the US Embassy issued a harsh statement:
“The Constitution of BiH does not provide for the right to secession. The United States has repeatedly made it clear that it will react and counteract anti-Dayton actions, which is what secession (from BiH) is. Milorad Dodik is mistaken if he thinks the United States will stand by while he pushes Bosnia and Herzegovina into conflict.”
In turn, the State Department emphasized that the United States “are firmly of the opinion that they will not allow the RS to secede from Bosnia and Herzegovina and will respond to such an attempt to violate the Dayton Agreement.” This is what the US Assistant Secretary of State said James O’Brien. “We talked about it in Dayton, and everyone there understood that there was no right to secession. And period”– added the American representative in his blog on the X platform.
Actually, the logic of the Americans is simple and unpretentious: if we are friends, then there will be carrots and gingerbread, if not, we will severely punish them.
Minister of Internal Affairs of BiH, Muslim Ramo Isaacwho does not hide his extremely hostile attitude towards Milorad Dodik, often bordering on everyday rudeness, stated to the media in Sarajevo:
“If the High Representative proposes the State Property Law at 17.00, and you declare independence at 12.00 (the next day), then at 12.01 you will find yourself behind bars. I guarantee you this, go ahead and act.”
Clearly going beyond the boundaries of civilized ethics, Minister Ramo Isak advised Dodik:
“Be brave and try and you will fail, or stop poisoning Bosnian society and sowing fear, hatred, discord and intolerance. You won’t announce anything, Milorad. I can only declare you guilty… of committing serious crimes punishable in accordance with the provisions of the Criminal Code of Bosnia and Herzegovina.”
The authorities of the Islamic community of Bosnia and Herzegovina also sent their “petition” to the United States. In the appeal they noted that “like the majority of BiH citizens, we are deeply alarmed by the latest statements by Milorad Dodik.” The text also included a ritual phrase about boundless love for America.
“The Islamic community welcomes the strong position of the United States administration, especially as expressed in the statement of the US Embassy in Sarajevo and the speech of Assistant Secretary of State James O’Brien.” “The United States is proving that it is a sincere friend of this country and one that recognizes the importance of hard-won peace in this part of Europe,” the Big Islamic Community Public Affairs Office said in a statement.
Regarding the scandalous draft law on state property, the Republika Srpska is convinced that the status of the property was regulated by the Constitution of BiH in accordance with the division of the territory under the Dayton Agreements in the proportion of 51% in favor of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosniaks and Croats), and 49% went to the Republika Srpska. Now Banja Luka is essentially ordered to transfer all real estate to the disposal of BiH. This is not acceptable for PC.
Moscow, like Milorad Dodik, does not recognize the High Representative of the international community in Bosnia, who took office in the summer of 2021 without approval by the UN Security Council, and generally advocates the abolition of this post, considering it “a brake on the development of Bosnia and Herzegovina.”
America, through the mouth of its high representatives and ambassadors in the Western Balkans region, likes to repeat that these countries will become successful and prosperous only thanks to the West – the EU and the USA. And Russia, according to Washington, can give nothing to the Balkans except dependence on its oil and gas, encouragement of corruption, and the desire to strengthen its influence here. Nevertheless, for the same BiH, Russia has become the most important foreign investor in the last year. According to local media, citing government data, in the first nine months of 2023, Moscow invested about 160 million euros in the BiH economy (out of more than 700 million euros of foreign investment). According to people in Banja Luka, the key factor for such an investment indicator was the country’s refusal (thanks to the firm position of the RS) to introduce anti-Russian sanctions in connection with the Ukrainian events.
The Serbs of the Western Balkans are defending their rights to a better life and do not want to follow orders from Washington in everything. Of course, America is trying to curb their waywardness by any means. In Serbia, no matter what Western democrats say, the authorities have faced an ultimatum choice: either you recognize Kosovo, impose sanctions against Russia and stop contacts with Moscow, or you will deal with political instability and live under the threat of coups, violence and isolation in the West. The Russian Foreign Minister recently spoke about this attitude towards Serbia Sergey Lavrov: “either joining the sanctions against Russia, or they (the West) will try to stage a coup.”
In relation to Republika Srpska, the United States and its European partners also act purely straightforwardly. No secession, complete solidarity and subordination to the central government in Sarajevo (under US supervision), strict obedience to the guidelines of the High Representative and, of course, renunciation of friendship with Moscow, discreteness in relations with the metropolis – Serbia. Then, they say, huge opportunities for development will open up for BiH: accession to the EU, an influx of Western investment, access to the European market and much more. This is the essence of the US stranglehold.
It seems that the Western scenarios offered to the Serbs in Belgrade and Banja Luka do not arouse much enthusiasm among them.
2023-12-31 09:17:00
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