[딜사이트 김진욱 기자] The Bank of Korea forecast Korea’s economic growth rate to be 2.1% next year.
The Bank of Korea predicted Korea’s economic growth rate at 2.1% in 2024 through an economic outlook report released last November. This is a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the 2.2% forecast in July.
The Bank of Korea forecasts that the improvement trend will continue next year with a recovery in exports and facility investment. However, the economic growth rate was expected to be in the low 2% range due to the slow recovery in domestic demand, including consumption and construction investment. The global economy, which is an external factor, is expected to show a gradual growth trend due to the influence of high interest rates.
Export surplus in 2024 is expected to be $49 billion (approximately KRW 63.5 trillion) due to recovery in demand for semiconductors and improvement in the global economy. As the decline in imports continued this year, exports improved in the second half of the year, increasing the size of the surplus, and this trend is expected to continue next year. It is a somewhat positive forecast that the current account surplus to GDP ratio will expand from 1% this year to the late 2% range next year.
Prices are expected to slow from 3.6% this year to 2.6% next year. Core inflation is also expected to stabilize from 3.5% this year to 2.3% next year. Prices continued to slow starting in 2022, but recently showed signs of rebound due to the impact of the supply shock. The Bank of Korea predicted that there will be a slowdown in the future due to weakening domestic demand pressure.
As for employment, the increase in the number of employed people is expected to slow from 340,000 this year to 240,000 next year. As a result, the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 2.7% this year to 2.9% next year.
External conditions showed better-than-expected growth this year due to favorable service demand factors, but it is expected that growth will continue at a gradual pace in the future due to the impact of high interest rates.
In particular, the United States, which has shown the highest growth since the pandemic, is expected to slow its growth next year due to cumulative interest rate increases. The euro area’s growth rate is expected to improve, but it will be weak.
In China, the economic slowdown is expected to continue due to the sluggish real estate market. It is predicted that the Chinese government’s stimulus measures, such as infrastructure investment, will act as a buffer against the slowing growth trend, but will not prevent the economic slowdown.
In Japan, the recovery will slow due to the increase in foreign tourists and the recovery of exports, but it is expected that growth will continue beyond the trend.
Internal conditions were very sluggish in the first half of the year, but are gradually improving thanks to the IT economy’s rebound in the second half of the year. Following this trend, it is predicted that the growth trend will continue to improve next year.
However, it was pointed out that there are potential factors that may limit future domestic economic recovery, such as the increased burden of household principal and interest repayment in a high interest rate situation and the risk of loan defaults.
In particular, in the housing price sector, which affects the domestic economy, expectations of a rise in housing prices, slowing purchase sentiment, and continued increase in apartment sales are expected to exert downward pressure on housing prices. This outlook takes into account the fact that policy interest rates in major countries have been maintained at high levels for a considerable period of time. On the other hand, it is expected that upside risks such as the continued upward trend in jeonse prices and a decrease in the supply of new homes will remain.
The Bank of Korea analyzed that it is necessary to pay attention to the fact that while the high interest rate situation continues, the increase in loans to households and companies continues, and the delinquency rate is rising, especially in vulnerable sectors such as real estate PF loans.
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2023-12-30 00:50:19
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